Member Info for StanleyPro

"RM has delivered on everything he promised this year and think he will deliver on the refinancing."

TLW will get another 40 mil when Kenya FDP is approved and getting $80m total (short term) from Kenya is much better than keeping it indefinitely w/o any infrastructure.

Waiting for 8.60 with a disciplined strategy. Doom & gloom will weigh on TLW so I see further SP deterioration, massive risk and selling pressure but as long as they survive the mood will change eventually.

This board is full of nonsense! If TLW directors fail to refinance then it will be over, nobody will get 15-20p, 50-100% quick profit - the company will be delisted from the LSX. If, on the other hand, refinancing is successfully implemented then all these "15-20p ceiling" discussions will become obsolete, the stock price could go on and on to 30, 40, 60 over the years, as debt gets repaid and production increases. Closing the shorts after trading flat for a couple of months could be more beneficial then continuing to pay fees, as interest is slowly eating up their profits.

The SP can go lower due to current markets and refinancing, and also, there could be lack of news for prolonged periods, so if anyone makes a decision to bet long please don't dump it all at 8p! That'll just feed the shorters.

It has now halved mainly due to a significant Jubilee and TEN production decline. Up to date, around 130 million barrels of oil have been recovered from TEN (with at least 230 million 2p reserves?), but at the current production rate [6 m / year] our production licenses will expire sooner than Tullow could recover these reserves. In 2018, the TEN output was 80kbopd and then production plummeted. The same is true for Jubilee: RD invested heavily and got the production up to 100k and then it has gradually declined to half its peak output. Something isn't right with their approach and it has an impact on the re-financing process.

@Anton, I wouldn't be too worried about them. We need more producer wells in Ghana, drilled with reference to the 4D survey but there's only one well planned in H2

The effective date in the past translates into a 30% discount on the asset because TLW has to service debt: the RCF was repaid and cancelled on 29 July 2025.

Having re-read the 2025 first half statement where the directors quoted oil production w/wo Gabon, I've noticed that they haven't accounted for any revenue from Gabon in H1 but the sale was announced in Q2 of 2025, and concluded in July. Half a year revenue from Gabon is not insignificant, pumping 10 kbopd is roughly $125 million gross at $69 realised oil price.

Gabon (@10k bopd) should be part of our H1 revenue because we haven't received the money yet.

RR. is at all time high: PIs very rarely have a good exit strategy after making a whopping 10x, they wait until the stock is back below £1. #notAdvice

@Xhita, yes, the sector isn't doing well but when correction starts it affects most stocks, especially the more volatile ones.

Not surprised at the drop looking at the bigger picture. On 1 August tariffs will hit the fan and the markets are at all time high, so one would expect some sort of a pull back and EZJ could be dragged down together with everything else.

Let me guess, the revised FDP wasn't approved on 30 June

Thanks for the link and reference to AGM. Then we need to get the Gabon transaction over the line, could save us a couple of Ms if done sooner rather than later.

Does anyone know if the credit facility maturing end of June has been extended?

Today, TLW's SP suffered its heaviest loss in a single day (-21%) since covid times and it's difficult to attribute this to market manipulation. The debt situation Tullow is in also doesn't warrant the drop because it depends whether they will get the money for Gabon in time, repay Glencore facility and restructure huge portion of the remaining debt. The 2026 bonds were down by only 2.2% today, so there's still some confidence that Tullow would be able to refinance! It is speculated that the alleged merger talks started no earlier than June and the SP was already on the way up when someone has put even more pressure (perhaps knowing about upcoming merger talks). Hartree got spooked and started closing their short but probably knew as much as we did. Pictet are like LTHs but on the short side. Also, I completely rule out the option where LTHs had enough and [yet another failed merger] was the last straw. The only feasible explanation is that someone was building a position specifically with that merger in mind dumped the entire holding this morning shortly after the bell. Let's hope that the SP recovers.

"I'm estimating an offer between 29-32p"

This could be traders' short term target but it's not even close to a reasonable valuation (i.e. with full information on refinancing, proceeds from Ghana gas, Gabon, Kenya etc.) Informal negotiations take place all the time, NEDs are testing the waters using their connections but if nothing has been agreed there's nothing to report.

Hey @Jayroz, I get 22.80 as the next stop, which I guess is the same as your 22. Then, 27 and 33. If refinancing goes well, we should be up there somewhere, possibly re-testing the ceiling (40p).

Holding 100% for tomorrow, a bit of a gamble but hopefully pays off.

"Some banks - after waiting years i like them but they are a bit toppy, i may just hold for divis and looong term growth. HSBA and BARC atm."

Investment banks are running hot but too expensive at the moment, all imv. One thing to keep in mind is that they are cyclic stocks, so if you missed the boat there will always be another chance to buy low after some crisis hits in 2-3 years.