The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Hochschild directors have been bad with deadlines historically. If there was any chance of a delay towards the end of February, I would have said "first pour likely in March" to have some safety margin.
Even Afentra has gone past 40p with our formal CEO. (although the mcap is very different but it's about the stock price dynamics of an oil company also working in Africa). Mr. RD should do something to shake it up, we've been stuck at 30p for a month now!
The BoD simply don't know how to get things done in Kenya. There are 340 MMBO of 2C reserves sitting in Lokichar with licenses granted to Tullow. Rahul's team needs to engage with the communities over there and explain the procedure, production, transportation and how the region is going to benefit. Kenyan officials should be approached, perhaps Rahul should invite them to some good venue, treat them well and discuss any difficulties and their concerns about the FDP. If all he's doing is sitting in his London office waiting for a phone call then nothing will be done.
Having watched a couple of old Kenyan news videos on Tullow I was under the impression that Tullow could have done more to avoid shenanigans with the gov. of Kenya. One of the problems is that the locals just don't see how they will benefit from oil production and most of them are unhappy that the initial batch of oil (200kbbl) was sold a few years ago and nobody told them where has the money gone and how it's invested etc. Perhaps, engaging more with the communities could get the FDP approved a lot quicker.
Last week Berenberg upgraded Marshalls to "buy" with the target of 420, which I think is realistic. However, I don't agree with them calling it a cyclic stock, quite far from it. Marshalls has had over a decade of consistent SP increase and before covid related problems was trading at an all time high... an extremely bullish stock, at least by the LSX standards. My point is that Marshalls has potential even beyond 420. If the interest rates had stayed low, the 2021 "fire sale" would have never happened.
Perhaps 220, for low risk long trade, all imv.
@Stupmy just added some at 30.30, I am doing my bit to defend 30p :)
Hellow Adie, is the arbitration ongoing? When can we expect any decision? Reuters wrote - "the decision is not expected earlier than 2024" but that was a year ago.
You pick one, 4h - 1d - 1w are all large in my book
On a large time frame
The ones that control the stock price?
@Supercooper, perhaps looking beyond the trading update?
There's no evidence of prioritising some big boys. Tullow set their 2024-2025 target to generate enough free cash in order to bring the debt down to manageable levels and improve gearing. Afterwards, they would be able to reintroduce divis. Now just 100m distributed around (1.4bn shares) translates into ~7p. I hope that you all agree with debt out of the way Tullow can easily spare 100m a year. Typically, you'll find 3-8% divi rate, leaving a lot of room for capital gains here.
40p is inevitable when Tullow pays off its current debt, unless you're betting that the business will go under.
Depends on your interpretation of bad news. I suspect the guidance will be missed but the most important question is how much free cash they generated for the period, which may surprise a few that are waiting for mid 20s. Most bad news could be priced in and if Tullow did slightly better than anticipated, buyers will be happy to add more at the current level.
The SP will remain suppressed until next Wednesday at the very least. It may be seen as too risky to buy at the moment before we know the numbers.
Aboard but looking to add more in low 80s.
Not a bargain imv, it seems that momentum will bring us closer to 30p. However, I'm unsure if topping up before Jan-24 update is a good idea in any case. Most likely the '23 production guidance won't be met and we'll have lower free cash than projected. Also, we may end up at a loss and that'll hit the stock harder than any news on reduced kbopd output at Jubilee. Rahul will try to mask it up (again) by promising big and talking about how robust the balance sheet is. On the positive side, the debt is slowly being reduced.
"Jefferies cuts Tullow Oil to 'underperform' (hold) - price target 27 (35) pence"
If their target is 27, how is that a "hold"? They predicted a 30% decline, it should be a strong sell. Trying to play it safe in case of a break out - we told you to hold!
I can easily see TLW at 40p and higher, it's all about the sentiment because the fundamentals support a much higher SP. One piece of good news can make all the difference. Say, Kenya gets a green light then the SP could easily double over one or two trading sessions and we're discussing 37 or 39p levels here, which will become irrelevant.