Member Info for StanleyPro

Hi @J.Bond, is the payment at 1/2 year intervals? Would it be just 3.5% for the 2025 bond?

The new guys must be already under water on 11.5m shares they sold last week. Should be enough fuel for our rocket to break the 40p resistance.

I don't want to see us sold, not with these many uncertainties. We need to get to £1 first. It's true that Pictet are very sticky and I won't be surprised to see them adding to their short position even on good news.

@Xhita too early to sell, so long traders can safely ride the wave.

Very strange timing, yet another uncertainty on top of a pile of uncertainties. If I was the CEO of Tullow, I would get the arbitration out of the way and come to a conclusion regarding Kenya FDP before leaving. It makes me think that there could be some serious problems long term, e.g. the math isn't mathing for the 2026 liabilities. In that case, they should've started the clear up with the CFO.

JPM are pumping IAG and posting about a potential re-rate there. To me EZJ looks a better value.

Tullow's revenue has always been transparent, all results are audited and GRA cannot just claim that there were problems with taxation a decade ago! I hope the right decision comes before Christmas.

JMAX got a point, Anton. I remember you posted a year ago that if there would be no progress on Kenya and the SP is still in the 30s then you'll sell up and move on. Was your timeline Q1 2024? Maybe if you sell at least some, we'll get news that Tullow won their arbitration case! :D

The most important thing this morning is that the SP has finally managed to advance beyond 550s and we're now much closer to £6 than £5. We could be just one or two trading sessions away from £6, where everyone will be discussing 650 or even 700 near term. GL all LTH!

No one wanted a T/O when it was sub 10p, for 1 week late in March 2020.

GRA will shoot themselves in the foot if they drive Tullow out of business! Tullow simply can't afford an alleged $400m tax payout. I hope someone close to GRA is monitoring the situation and can advice them to revoke their baseless claim.

Hello @Redacted,

That statement came from Tullow's CFO in August. I'd rather prefer if he said "end of the year" but a decision came in November.

At the beginning of November, I posted the Q3 numbers published by the petroleum commission, Ghana. Then I calculated my FY estimate for Jubilee (34.5k) and over 10k net for the TEN field. I pointed out that Jubilee field is underperforming and was criticised by the likes of Anton, who said that I'm posting negative ****.

Therefore, nothing came as a surprise in today's RNS, one thing I looked for is how much further down the road the tax dispute is kicked.

How is it a buy if it's well below the bid? BoA are selling

How about to show us that he means business?

"they couldn't even sell for $400m"

Even now there is nothing to sell but hope. Tullow's FDP hasn't been approved yet. Then, from FDP to attracting investors could take years. It's just not realistic to factor in Kenya in any medium - long term (3-5y) plans, all imv. If there's some progress that can help the SP it will be very welcome but we need to increase production and find extra 10, 15 or even better 20 kbopd to get back to those levels of £1,80-2,80

Anton, check the numbers before digging a deeper hole.

Jubilee net production to Tullow averaged 32.5k for the entire year 2023, see full year results. If Tullow meets their target for 2024 it will be around 34.5k. (we'll know this in March) The Q3 production net to Tullow came at 34,150 bopd.

I'm not posting anything negative, all data are open source. If Tullow was low risk, no sentiment would keep the mcap at 300m.

The SP is in the mud mainly because Tullow's revenue from oil production is insufficient to cover the current liabilities, also, lack of successful exploration and quite low ROI, i.e. + 2kbopd for the Jubilee field turned out to be below investors' expectations. Just check the numbers, payback time is a couple of years if the production doesn't decline any further and that risk is contributing to the downside. If you're waiting for £1+, we need oil production of 75~80kboepd, gearing of approx. 0.6-0.8 and divi. However, Rahul needs to sort out some pressing issues first, such as update the market on Ghana tax dispute and on the progress generating 600m FCF.

Don't forget that H1 production was higher and Tullow lowered their guidance. Predictions for Jubilee and TEN in H1 report were 34k and 10k respectively, so Q3 is totally in line with expectations. Last year Jubilee net production averaged 32.5k and assuming no further decline we should get ~34.5k this year. TEN has been steady without investments and I see it as a positive.

From the numbers published by petroleum commission, Ghana.

Jubilee ~ 34,150

TEN ~ 10,124

Total Ghana bbl ~ 44,274

Non-op. estimate:

CI ~ 1,000 plus 500 boepd gas

Gabon ~ 10,200

55,974 plus Ghana gas