Member Info for StanleyPro

The MMs are forced to buy back a pile of stock they dumped at 685 on Monday. It would be nice if the SP advances to 770 by close tomorrow and further to £10 by Xmas.

Previous close was 767 and according to the official website someone dumped almost 240k shares at the market open at only 685, which is completely bizarre.

What's going on here?

650 would be nice by Christmas

Not so fast, the SP has not touched 22p yet

"Why was he buying in the 30s, when this drop was so predictable...... The same with Big Sam."

Maybe because they don't plan on selling at 39 and in the bigger picture 30s is very cheap

Blood will flow very soon, oil is tanking and all oilers are down! Never thought that 22 will be on the cards again, so getting excited for a juicy 22p top up! Bring it on!

Hi @Stupmy, I'm also long on EZJ and hoping to see a higher high. My target here is 638~650.

"Anyway, the tax dispute will not be settled this year."

Yet another bold statement, which contradicts the company's RNS.

"This will go lower in the coming months."

Various metrics of TA don't support this either, we're trading in the range of 27-40, and although everything is possible, it seems that we've turned the corner and had a couple of 28+ finishes after testing the support level. On large time frames the SP is moving up.

"Who called sell at 39p"

Many did actually, but you were nowhere to be seen last time the SP was at 39. Only after it got rejected from the upper bound of the trading range (i.e. 39) for the third time in 2 years, you made your post factum "sell" claim!

Net debt reduced by £28.8m to 155.8m, that's what matters most. None of the house builders reported a good H1, so an overreaction as usual! We should see the SP back to 340 in the coming days, imv.

Pictet are glued to Tullow. Probably, a high SP and gearing below 0.6x will shake them off.

Added more as we're firmly in a buy territory according to TA, my mid. term target is 50. #notAdvice as usual

H1 of 2023 was abysmal, so to be marginally better after all of the Jubilee drilling says it all. I can't recall a more pessimistic tone when delivering results during Rahul Dhir's tenure.

Short sellers have increased pressure here over the last couple of months, pushing the SP lower. Sterling is getting weaker against the dollar, which creates a favourable environment for big boys across the pond to load up. The same happened to RR., when the SP was 70p, the big boys (BoA etc.) loaded up and made 5 bags. They then sell when GBP is up to squeeze out a bit extra. If we get an rns that mgm boys are loading up, then I'll average down. #notAdvice

Better to keep holding than panic selling these below 6 quid

Sure, at some eye-watering 25% rate

The FDP in Kenya is kicked down the road to January, maybe even beyond June 2025. The real question is whether they will have enough time to sell Kenya to an oil giant if the FDP is approved? The ball is on Kenya's side, and hence, Tullow's execs need to figure out how to use generated cash to increase oil production. The Jubilee field revamp alone doesn't cut it. RD cannot just sit it out because time is running out and they have insufficient funds to cover the '26 bonds.

Waiting for it to go "much lower" to buy more, just keep on deramping!

Hi J.Bond,

by "liabilities greater than assets", do you mean tangible assets, i.e. oil fields etc.? One could argue how to put these on a balance sheet, especially if you count the reserves. Tullow's debt stands at $1.4b and our yearly revenue now exceeds this figure. However, the current stock valuation is just 1.5-2 years of positive cash flow, and such low valuations are due to high risks associated with the Ghana tax dispute and declining production. If the tax claim goes against us then Tullow is in big trouble! (They will have to use the entire credit facility, meaning that by the time it's repaid there will be no oil left offshore Ghana)

Hello Flavius,

"Zero chance that field would be developed in the (not-so)near future."

100%, the infrastructure is simply missing, even in an unlikely event the FDP gets a green light, you'd be pumping oil "in the middle of a desert".

"I just wonder if the Kenyan Gvt is using the argument of "gaps" in the FDP to force TLW out and negotiate a brand-new agreement with another O&G major."

It's highly unlikely that their gvt is capable of such maneuvers or have preference for other O&G majors over Tullow. Most likely they want to have their cake and eat it too. Sold licenses knowing that no oil will be produced out of these blocks, a win win situation long term. Tullow needs to mothball Turkana and walk away. (cut spending to zero)