Member Info for StanleyPro

Rahul has mentioned that there are about 12 oil deliveries per year and from my understanding the revenue depends on the spot price of oil on the day. Does anyone know when these deliveries take place? (Should be roughly 1 delivery per month) Who is the receiver, which port?

Mr Buffett came up with his theory many decades ago on a bull market with a huge potential for businesses with a simple model. The "impatient" took small profits and he profited in a long run. Our situation here has nothing to do with patience, FRES is a bearish stock in a bear market. Today's SP is lower than it was at the time of IPO some 15 years ago.

Kenyans won't walk away from Kenya for obvious reasons... People have been guessing about FDP, but on a serious note, it seems to be very difficult to do business in Kenya for any foreign company. They have a set of very restrictive laws where it comes to natural resources, you have to employ kenyans on some key positions and also as workers and many more. I've researched this topic and it's possible that the other two partners walked away because they thought it would be impossible to operate in Turkana. We need to get the FDP approved because then Kenya may become saleable. Tullow doesn't have $3.6bn to take it any further.

It doesn't look like any holder would suddenly decide to sell at a 6m low in one chunk after hours! Looks more like a move intended for breaking the support... I wish we had a couple of large buyers that could respond tomorrow morning and discourage shorting.

Gilts and algos... I would also put Anton's luck in a mix. Maybe if he sells we'll break 40p! (no offence, just kidding)

The text was put together to promote their shorting agenda. Tullow oil is valued at 3 months of revenue and they still say 100kbopd is not conservative! Well, it might be less... and Tullow will drill another 10 water injection wells, who cares. Our largest shareholder must average ~40-50, the new director was happy to buy at 38. Every LTH is disappointed to see it in the 20s but when the debt is reduced the shareholders will start benefiting

Hochschild directors have been bad with deadlines historically. If there was any chance of a delay towards the end of February, I would have said "first pour likely in March" to have some safety margin.

Even Afentra has gone past 40p with our formal CEO. (although the mcap is very different but it's about the stock price dynamics of an oil company also working in Africa). Mr. RD should do something to shake it up, we've been stuck at 30p for a month now!

The BoD simply don't know how to get things done in Kenya. There are 340 MMBO of 2C reserves sitting in Lokichar with licenses granted to Tullow. Rahul's team needs to engage with the communities over there and explain the procedure, production, transportation and how the region is going to benefit. Kenyan officials should be approached, perhaps Rahul should invite them to some good venue, treat them well and discuss any difficulties and their concerns about the FDP. If all he's doing is sitting in his London office waiting for a phone call then nothing will be done.

Having watched a couple of old Kenyan news videos on Tullow I was under the impression that Tullow could have done more to avoid shenanigans with the gov. of Kenya. One of the problems is that the locals just don't see how they will benefit from oil production and most of them are unhappy that the initial batch of oil (200kbbl) was sold a few years ago and nobody told them where has the money gone and how it's invested etc. Perhaps, engaging more with the communities could get the FDP approved a lot quicker.

Last week Berenberg upgraded Marshalls to "buy" with the target of 420, which I think is realistic. However, I don't agree with them calling it a cyclic stock, quite far from it. Marshalls has had over a decade of consistent SP increase and before covid related problems was trading at an all time high... an extremely bullish stock, at least by the LSX standards. My point is that Marshalls has potential even beyond 420. If the interest rates had stayed low, the 2021 "fire sale" would have never happened.

Perhaps 220, for low risk long trade, all imv.

@Stupmy just added some at 30.30, I am doing my bit to defend 30p :)

Hellow Adie, is the arbitration ongoing? When can we expect any decision? Reuters wrote - "the decision is not expected earlier than 2024" but that was a year ago.

You pick one, 4h - 1d - 1w are all large in my book

On a large time frame

The ones that control the stock price?

@Supercooper, perhaps looking beyond the trading update?

There's no evidence of prioritising some big boys. Tullow set their 2024-2025 target to generate enough free cash in order to bring the debt down to manageable levels and improve gearing. Afterwards, they would be able to reintroduce divis. Now just 100m distributed around (1.4bn shares) translates into ~7p. I hope that you all agree with debt out of the way Tullow can easily spare 100m a year. Typically, you'll find 3-8% divi rate, leaving a lot of room for capital gains here.

40p is inevitable when Tullow pays off its current debt, unless you're betting that the business will go under.