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"You have based your entire knee jerk response on TLW having to pay down as much debt as possible. "

That's not what I wrote! My point is that their priority right now should be debt reduction and adding 2P reserves, not dividends. Neither Fitch nor Chartered crumbled under debt and your 4th point would apply to those businesses operating back in the days of "unlimited free cash". They borrowed to accelerate the development of their business, where the current liabilities were fully covered by earnings = good debt. However, the Glencore facility which comes at 10% + FED/BoE/ECB rate does not fall into the above category of unlimited free cash. It is just a lifeline and should be drawn only if absolutely necessary. You raised many good questions, especially "how much debt is too much". As of today, the debt level which equates to a full year revenue is too much for a small/medium oiler, all imv.

Anton, hopefully the CFO learned from the cold December of 2019 because he was in McDade's team. I don't want to hear the word dividends before Tullow is financially stable (can survive prolonged periods of low oil price) and pumping 80-90k bopd, which by the way was 2020 target/aim if you've been here long enough to remember. In a very unlikely scenario of dividends being announced I'm bailing out... because any rise will be short lived and it would significantly reduce our chances of getting closer to fair value. I'm not here after 40-50p.

@Schrodingerscat not a chance! TLW is under a lot of pressure financially and divi would do more harm than good at this stage. The priority should be debt reduction and adding 2P reserves.

@Schrodingerscat not a chance! TLW is under a lot of pressure financially and divi would do more harm than good at this stage. The priority should be debt reduction and adding 2P reserves.

@seakingalpha personally, not a fan of takeovers, especially those involving debt-laden companies that are trading below their assets valuation. Shareholders hardly ever benefit in such situations and I don't want Tullow to be consumed. I disagree with your view on the tender offer that the low % take up is "the proof" because they'll have to buy it anyway or maybe you meant that Tullow oil is not running out of cash, that I understand. However, I don't get what prevented them from buying back more bonds during the summer at almost half the nominal value?

You're defending Rahul, saying that he is the right man for the job but I hardly see any progress under Rahul & his team, such as a new acquisition or exploration success. Anyone could run Jubilee and pay back a small chunk of debt at a time of record high oil prices. This whole situation reflects on the SP, sentiment is negative at the moment and TA is pointing down all the way to 21 after the double top. The only way to break this short pattern is positive news.

"Really can't see myself continuing to hold beyond H1 next year if we're still this price."

You've got to be kidding, the biggest promoter of Tullow wearing rose-coloured glasses is losing now faith. I think if you sell even Kenya will become a possibility...

Has anyone managed to add below 119? I missed the spike

Short closing should move the price up. Otherwise, they'd be closing in chunks making more profit along the way and this is just too good to be true. On the contrary, opening a large short could lead to such spikes as it momentarily creates a much larger stack that needs to be bought to maintain the balance.

I'm very worried about the wedge that formed since 1 November (see 1h and 4h time frames). We've had a break out (to the downside) and re-test of 109~110 level this evening. Textbook stuff so far... However, gold and silver are flying at the minute, buyers are strong and may break the bearish pattern on Monday.

Scrodingerscat, risk goes up with debt maturity deadline approaching and we should be fine for 2025, hopefully with more money coming from oil than Glencore facility. My point is that the SP is depressed so much because TLW is considered a very high risk by most analysts. It only takes a 5 min google search to see that the majority of them think that our debt is not properly covered by future cash generated from oil. The oil prices are already high so the only way to derisk is to increase production. As much as Anton is irritated, it is a game of averages, as progress is assessed over a long distance. Since Rahul's appointment the production has declined (audited numbers on the balance sheet) and so has the stock price. He keeps saying things are looking better now and we've all hoped the SP could gain some momentum but maybe IIs and large buyers want to see the proof.

Not irrelevant by any means, I'm just trying to answer the question on what the current value is pinned to, it's all about the revenue and free cash. You see, if you were right, the SP would have been 90p (just a wild guess but a lot higher than this). You can come back to this post when the reported figure for an extended time period (half or full year) would be 70k + AND then compare the stock price. Most LTHs buy when they can see facts, not just Rahul's promises.

"I would like to know what the current value is pinned to, because the company is clearly buying up debt with cash it's generating as they haven't drawn the Glencore facility."

It has to be viewed together on the time axis. As the deadline is approaching, TLW will need to find another 500m in one and a half years, and then the 2026 comes with another large chunk. It's some challenge with the AVERAGE 2023 production in mid or high 50s. We need to up the production into the 70s bopd next year but I agree that MCAP is silly for $1,75bn revenue.

Oil up TLW down.

Let's see what tomorrow brings. An update may not help if it's another red day. I don't get why the overall trend is down to be honest, some would say the EPL is to blame but HBR is financially stable and does not have any short term commitments where a certain amount of profit would be critical in the rising interest rate environment. The oil is here to stay for the next couple of decades so what weighs on the SP?

Hey J.Bond. Just out of interest, what is the minimum position for bond purchase (e.g. what was it in Tullow's case) and where/how can you buy those?

Hi Sotolo, looking good also from the TA view point. We've found support at ~108 and the RSI had a bit of time to "cool down", so the indicator is not around maxima on 1h or 4h charts. This supports a higher move up to ~117-118 level in the near term.

@Murphy UT is done and dusted after every trading session for each and every stock out there, not sure what you mean by referring to past uncrossing trades.

Interesting. 38,50 was way below the bid so it must be a sell for such a large order, if the time is correctly displayed.

Break out on Monday or is there still time?