Member Info for StanleyPro

"God damn! This is the most boring stock in the world!"

would be nice to expand the mid-term trading range a bit, say 200 - 300

Looking at the chart, we need to break out of 40 - 42 area of strong resistance, which should open the road to 50. Can the SP punch through 40? I'll be watching this closely over the next couple of weeks.

Just bought some, couldn't resist such a bargain. Will add more at around £2 mark if the SP continues dropping.

@EdGasket, the reason is ridiculously low valuations seen over the past 2 years. Why would anyone measure a gold miner with an ongoing large development against PE?

Think we will be at £2 mark or just under sooner than later. Probably it'll bounce back up by Christmas. Let's see if 218p holds.

Antonvb, the 2023 production average (up to date) is still below 58k. If Rahul came out and said that today Tullow managed to pump 100k but yesterday they had a planned shutdown then the average over two days would be 50! You're trying to convince everyone on this board that 100 (or 65k in your example) has to be quoted from now on and the rest is history.

"What is your low 50's for 2023 based on.....nothing."

Read the bloody RNS from 4 month ago, the average production for the first half of 2023 was in the low 50s. That's a fact because it happened and reported in the rns, unlike some assumptions you make for 2024.

"Yes, the average is less than that for 2023, however it won't be for 2024."

It won't be in 2024 is an assumption. There are different strategies one could pursue in order to get the production up, e.g. through exploration in existing blocks, or by knowing your ways around Africa and making deals with oil partners and governments. There is nothing magical about 90k figure. Rahul is going for a half court basketball shot every time, instead of a simple lay up.

Antonvb, you're twisting the facts to suit your agenda. What makes you believe that it is less of a mess now than when Rahul was appointed?

Unforeseen surge in oil price saved Tullow, not Rahul. Under his leadership the daily production has declined to low 50s bopd. Some reports suggest that the situation has improved in Q3 but we still need 80-90 bopd for comfort and Tullow's nowhere near those numbers. Tullow has been very unlucky with exploration since 2019 and nothing's changed on that front with Rahul at the helm. Rahul attempted a merger with Cairn, which looked good on paper but the IIs of the latter blocked it, mainly because of the low SP (i.e. instant value for money) and lack of strategy. Then, Rahul tried to use his connections to secure a partner but failed. Two oil companies left Turkana project and we're left holding the baby. This makes me think it's a mess. (see the first question above) Finally, the SP is lower than it was when he was appointed with record oil prices in the meantime... In their presentation of full year results they talked about expiration of hedges in May and how that's going to help us with increased cash flow but with the current mess I don't think it has materialised. IMV, Rahul has to go and the CFO has to go. They need to appoint someone who knows how to bring the production up to 80-90 bopd and then the words such as "robust portfolio" would have some meaning.

That's hardly a consolation. When everyone is up, TLW sits at 34.3.

"Now tell me (anybody) why Kenya would live these $$$ in the ground"

Maybe because they don't have $s to extract anything from the ground and don't want anyone's fingers in their pie. Rahul hasn't mentioned Kenya in his updates, nor during the Africa oil week. If the government could compensate Tullow the money spent on Turkana this would be a huge win for us. Does anyone have any reliable sources on how much they owe us up to date?

The SP is stagnant because nobody wants to sell or buy at mid 30s. Say, I want to sell at no less than 40p and buy back at 30p. If MMs need volume, we need to get more volatility.

HOC's pulling like a train at the minute! RNS, saying Mara Rosa is complete could be imminent and this should put some petrol on fire... most important thing is not to sell before a re-rate but very tempting after such a long wait.

And Reality vs. Dreams: that's what I've been posting here for months! The company has to set realistic short term goals and implement those robustly. Two big oil companies handed over their Kenya stakes to Tullow. Think about it, they are wolves on this market, in certain situations you won't get 5 bucks out of them let alone potential 5bn$ in the ground. The chance of anything happening with the Kenya project must be a lot less than 1%.

I'll take 90p

And the shareholders will be shafted with the creditors at the helm, no thank you!

Gold at over 2k currently, expecting a strong performance from HOC tomorrow, 100 incoming?

"I've wondered why the big shorts haven't reduced given we've had some big drops in the share price, for example when we went sub 25p."

Could be just hedging, as the SP has gone in the other direction to the oil over the past couple of years, or at least TLW is more or less guaranteed to stay low because of many factors and the SP won't explode if oil does. As much as you and I don't like someone shorting Tullow, it's hard to deny that it's a "safe short". Also, maybe they think it's going bust but it's a bit early for that, bonds mature in 1,5 years.

@fewdollorsmore, it depends on your definition of "comes good". Could you be more specific? Are we talking about turning the 40p resistance into support, or setting a new high above 66p, or reaching a sacred level of 90p by 3pm one day? Do you see any of these happening in Q4 or in 2024?

Also, it goes ex divi on Thursday.