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Depends on your interpretation of bad news. I suspect the guidance will be missed but the most important question is how much free cash they generated for the period, which may surprise a few that are waiting for mid 20s. Most bad news could be priced in and if Tullow did slightly better than anticipated, buyers will be happy to add more at the current level.

The SP will remain suppressed until next Wednesday at the very least. It may be seen as too risky to buy at the moment before we know the numbers.

Aboard but looking to add more in low 80s.

Not a bargain imv, it seems that momentum will bring us closer to 30p. However, I'm unsure if topping up before Jan-24 update is a good idea in any case. Most likely the '23 production guidance won't be met and we'll have lower free cash than projected. Also, we may end up at a loss and that'll hit the stock harder than any news on reduced kbopd output at Jubilee. Rahul will try to mask it up (again) by promising big and talking about how robust the balance sheet is. On the positive side, the debt is slowly being reduced.

"Jefferies cuts Tullow Oil to 'underperform' (hold) - price target 27 (35) pence"

If their target is 27, how is that a "hold"? They predicted a 30% decline, it should be a strong sell. Trying to play it safe in case of a break out - we told you to hold!

I can easily see TLW at 40p and higher, it's all about the sentiment because the fundamentals support a much higher SP. One piece of good news can make all the difference. Say, Kenya gets a green light then the SP could easily double over one or two trading sessions and we're discussing 37 or 39p levels here, which will become irrelevant.

Sentiment has really made a U-turn on this BB, from the worst ftse management and the board full of crooks to Linda being the top boss holding shares and genuinely caring. Pathetic! Ms. Cook's last tranche was a sell at 244.10.

Hello Andy. If you press reply under any post you'll stay on the same thread. Regarding you question, usually there's a combination of methods / techniques / indicators that seem to work better for some stocks. Start researching different methods used in TA online and maybe you'll find similarities with MSLH chart, and then you'd know what books to read. e.g. maybe you'll find the Elliot waves to work well and then you may realise that those should be viewed together with chart patterns. Also, try to see what indicators other traders use on youtube regardless of the instrument (even forex!) and try to apply the same to MSLH historic charts on different time frames, 1h, 4h, 1d. There is no simple answer to your question as there's a lot of rubbish around and you need to develop your own filter and rely on something you can trust. TA is not a crystal ball, it helps in understanding the market behaviour and what levels are likely to be defended or tested by big players, IIs etc, so that you can stay ahead of the curve. Hope this helps.

@bonker99 250 was not a random figure, it's a major resistance [now support] level prior to today's breakout. We were at 220 not so long ago and I was hoping that we could reach 250 before Xmas under normal circumstances. I need to get my head around the deal, so far I don't like what I'm reading outside of the rns, such as plans of the major shareholder BASF to head for the exit. We're not talking about 1% stake but 46,5 is absolutely massive!

BASF will get a 46,5% stake in Harbour and news outlets are reporting this evening that BASF will be looking to exit O&G sector in the next couple of years. This is just an incredible gift and fuel for shorters that will want their revenge. Then, if you also consider issued bonds (a lot of new debt), restructuring the business and decommissioning costs etc. the fantastic deal doesn't look all that incredible. Don't want to discourage anyone on here but don't get too carried away, ending up deep under water, as I won't be surprised if the SP would be walked back down to 250. As isual, this is #notAdvice

Yes, and I'm invested here also. My 2024 price target is 400.

"But the mkts are stilled propped up and not moving on fundamentals"

100% agree

Hello jefff, could mean that good times are coming for those who are long. From my observations, big market moves happen when hedge funds and big players are all aligned in one direction, having most or least bullish positions.

We need to break out of 280 to bury that bear trend.

@melonhead22 possibly tomorrow. I've also found that S&P downgraded Tullow to SD (Selective Default) due to the tender offer being below par for both 2025 and 2026 notes. However, the discount was not necessarily a bad thing for long term stock holders because it allows Tullow to preserve some future free cash, we desperately need not to end up in default.

TLW was the only oiler to close in the red today. Maybe just a coincidence but we're desperate for some good news here. The debt should be down by $400m YTD after tomorrow's settlement for the tender notes.

To be fair, higher targets were likely in the 60s.

Probably jumped too soon Rookie, I reckon we may even see 245 tested this time but also agree that low 20s are as likely.

Hello JMAX, they'll do really well if they are able to meet the lower guidance of 58kbopd. Today, the production should be above 63k but I'm really hoping they won't come short for the year, mainly because of negative sentiment and news headlines.

You clearly don't understand what I wrote. Thankfully, those running Tullow have a bit more financial knowledge than you and instead of going into pointless rounds of discussions I'll simply tell you that if you're expecting dividends here you're totally delusional and divis won't come anytime soon.