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hello mountainous, just a small correction - UK & Jersey are part of Ch11.
RoW + manageable amount of debt left for Cineworld and the rest of the group is sold. I'll be over the moon if we're left with RoW, we could easily build from there. This is my best case prediction.
Where can I find monthly P/L? I could only find the forecast (Ch.11 on CINE's website).
yes, they should have included a "BUT" statement and if this is the case,
"is there an appetite for Cine to trade its way out of this mess which is why lifelines have been thrown in terms of lending?"
then equity holders would likely to recover some equity. The SP could have gone the other way...
it's interesting how they always want to nail down the SP when it starts to recover a bit.
maybe some think it's crazy but just averaged down. Will stick to my "Plan" to recover most losses before April.
Read it again.
"based on the proposals received to date, it is not expected that any sale transaction will provide any recovery for the holders of the Company's equity interests."
This is based on what's currently on the table but maybe they should also check what's under the desk.
no it wouldn't, it clears most of the debt and leases, 1~2bn with low interest is manageable by the rest of the group. They could start over, merge with someone etc.
@ianharding "Monday is key. This is when the lenders can have their say. They do not want debt for equity. Only Cineworld has been bringing this up." +++
That's what I've been saying since the beginning. In my opinion, the only quick solution that makes sense at the moment is to sacrifice part of the business to cover high interest bad debt and try to get out of Ch.11 with re-negotiated lease agreements. For that we need to prove that we have enough liquidity. They're not helping themselves by not making this clear. Why don't we put Regal up for sale for 4bn (keep in mind it's been optimised & restructured so that's a very good deal) That instantly clears most of the debt. UK & RoW can pay the rest over time. Why do they constantly repeat that shareholders will get wiped out? Our bloody lawers get 1.5k/hour and all they do is tell us - there would be no equity left.
hello poorinvester, have been looking for your post this morning. I'm still massively in the red but now thinking whether 2p is worth a speculative punt. If 2 -> 5 or 2 -> 6 materialises, should recover all my losses.
Something's not right, you can sense the frustration about "the Plan" or any Plan which involves sale of business. In the RNS they reported only what they have to, i.e. if the sale takes place on the current terms it's expected that equity holders get nothing. This also goes in line with Joshua Sussberg's speech in front of the judge where it was reported that "bids came nowhere near 6bn" with enthusiasm, I believe HNS picked on that the other day. Surely, there must be a better solution to restructure debts picked up during pandemic than all assets sale on the cheap given that business is strong.
Hi Hexam,
I don't fully agree with you on the last paragraph:
"Nobody knows what the exact outcome will be but it will involve pain for shareholders. In particular anybody thinking CINE will just be allowed to come out of Chapter 11 with a revised loan repayment schedule but with no sale of assets or dilution is going to be very disappointed I'm afraid."
Ch11 procedure has already inflicted a lot of pain on the shareholders and CINE could still end up massively undervalued post any asset sale! I believe that Cineworld will be allowed to come out of Ch11 with revised rental agreements, restructured load and a clear vision with regard to repayments (so that we can manage those with the realistic footfall). Sure, the lenders want their money back as quickly as possible (even before the loans mature) but I also want 50p as quickly as possible. :D In reality, it will be something in between.
Read the Jan RNS:
"Tullow's commodity hedge portfolio provides oil price downside protection at $55/bbl for c.64% of forecast sales volumes to May 2023 and c.40% of forecast sales volumes from June 2023 through to May 2024. With the majority of hedges executed as part of the 2021 debt refinancing rolling off, Tullow will have increased exposure to higher oil prices from May 2023 onwards. Tullow plans to build out its commodity hedge portfolio for the second half of 2023 and into 2024, looking to maintain material upside exposure whilst securing protection against a severe oil price downturn."
Should get better after hedges expire in May if the oil price remains somewhere around 80$ mark.
4p+ finish, take that!
"offers came nowhere near the $6bn” isn't this obvious after saying that they haven't received any bids for Regal and UK businesses?
@dbno, not yet... still 10p to go until the 52w low.
so far it looks like everything's available is shorted even at such crazy %s. @Emerald51, usually, for a financially stable company a lot of shares are available to borrow at low interest. The current short interest situation building up around CINE could benefit a rapid SP rise because on any positive news shorts are our fuel for the rocket! For a position of decent size they won't be able to tolerate a multi bag increase. They would then have to buy back at any given price. Say, the SP jumps to 8p or 10p and the LTHs won't rush to buy when they could have bought at 4.70 but you'll still see a lot of buys going through which could take the SP a lot higher. We may end up testing 16-20p within one or two trading sessions.
@steward1 because then it's up to the creditors to see whether they'd like to inject more funds to let Cineworld continue.
Low bid potentially means high D4E
Bid in line with pre-covid group valuation would reassure the creditors to back the business. (hopefully, avoiding a massive dilution)
High bid and the group would be sold.
let's test sotolo's theory that you could always buy them cheaper, would I be able to get some at 62.5? :)
Restructuring almost complete it seems:
"Cineworld has also successfully renegotiated modifications for 150 of its existing Regal leases, presumably lowering their operating costs, though have not been able to do so at 77 sites. Landlords for some, though not all, of the latter sites will likely come to new terms with Regal, otherwise Cineworld will reject the leases and walkaway from the properties."
Next, CINE will disclose the bids. Then, the lenders will get jealous and reveal their D4E plan for the restructured company. Most likely, the lenders would try to reshuffle the BoD and it would be wise [for the shareholders] to stand by Mooky and fight for the smallest possible dilution. Mind you they would be getting very good return on interest anyway,