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It is frustrating because the SP does not make sense with oil averaging above 80$. There must be some problems with debt not being properly covered by a forecast generated cash... Can someone explain how can a stable oil business be valued at just 1/3 of its yearly revenue?

I would much prefer anyone else, e.g. PIs holding those 5%

Let's hope the upcoming trading update is a good one

Probably lending to shorters

@VirSteele a decision (or lack of) is suppressing the SP; (something that could be sorted over a couple of days is taking ages) It should be pretty clear by now if Ghana has a case or not.

The CEO was happy to buy at 262 and we see signs of a strong buyer in the 250s

Afentra's SP doubled over the past year with Tullow's former management at the helm; on the contrary, there has been absolutely nothing done for the shareholders here, no promotion, no updates, no share buyback or anything else that's of any value to the shareholders. What is Rahul's plan when the debt is reduced to "more manageable levels"? He needs to tell us what's happening with the tax claim.

Charts look very bearish. I'm thinking high 40s could be a good punt and below the IIs but still in doubt.

The SP action depends heavily on what will happen around us, most other oilers are enjoying the rally and there's no indication of any pull back yet.

Just because someone drew a bowl does not mean the price will follow suit. Silver is an industrial metal mined in fairly large quantities and major players will be selling aggressively if the price exceeds $30~35, imv this also applies to Hochschild, as they'll update their current silver hedges.

31.90p resistance was broken this morning, now it's likely that 33p will be tested this week and when surpassed, 36p will be likely the next major test. #notAdvice

$88,30 at the moment, heading to $90. Tullow must have averaged above $80 per barrel in February and March. Most likely we'll exceed the FCF forecast for April.

"Hopefully it holds some large sells coming through £25k+"

Some are getting very desperate, increasing the selling pressure to push the SP below 30p. If the tax rumours are true then they are in big trouble... margin call, baby!

https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/We-don-t-harass-businesses-for-taxes-GRA-responds-to-Bawumia-1922570

https://www.msn.com/en-xl/africa/ghana/individuals-businesses-to-have-tax-amnesty-in-2025-under-my-government-dr-bawumia/ar-BB1kjchD

It would be interesting to see how the shareholders vote. Last night I went through the annual report to see what they say about the shareholders, including IR, communication etc. (because imv, it is poor). Also, a big question mark over the CFO and some of the decisions (or lack of) and timing. Not good enough in my book.

The SP has been falling when every stock is flying on the bull market, so what will happen when the tide turns?

What's interesting here is that from a total of 6.9 kboepd, 0.5 kboepd (outside of Ghana) brought in $9m. This is because of the Ghana gas agreement, we're just gifting them 5 kboepd but that's not a gas blag or RD tweaking the balance sheet! If it wasn't for the agreement, the same mmbtu-s of gas should make 6.9 kboepd worth of revenue.

Tullow measures production and sells gas in mmbtu but they don't seem to adjust their kboepd figure for the discount. From Full Year results:

"Net gas production in Ghana averaged 6.4 kboepd in 2023 and marked the first commercialisation of associated gas from the Jubilee field. The interim Gas Sales Agreement, initially valued at $0.50/mmbtu, was amended in July 2023 to a price of $2.90/mmbtu and subsequently increased in November to $2.95/mmbtu, after applying year-on-year inflation indexation. This agreement represents a revenue stream for Tullow of c.$4 million per month."

"Included in Total Revenue of $1,634 million is gas sales of $38 million of which $29 million relates to Ghana. During the year, Ghana exported 35,754 mmscf (gross) of gas at an average price of $1.54/mmbtu."

The way it's on the balance sheet should mean pumping X amount of gas would be equivalent to an additional 7,000 bopd when sold. The amount of energy will depend on how the commodity is used.

Surely they're talking about the equivalent "ebopd". Nobody measures gas in kilobarrels.

What is your 7k gas blag? Genuine question. For Tullow, X amount of gas fetches the equivalent price of 7k bopd, so why can't it be added to Ghana revenue?

I just did. How many shorter theories have you posted about who's lending to whom?