Member Info for Splice

Panda,

"He would have to pay £8 a share because of MOEX."
He would need 75% of the vote. He can likely get that even if the moex holders vote against him. What proportion of the shares are in moex? I don't know but I don't think they are a material voting block.

"Then he would own a company ripe for sanctions as no western interest in it would be left. He would also never be able to raise capital again."

He would own a highly profitable gold miner and wouldn't care? Why would it be sanctioned, they wouldn't even do business with the sanctioning West? If he isn't sanctioned why couldn't he raise capital? In Russia? In Hong Kong?

"Splice you are just making up scenarios that make little sense." My scenario is the only one that makes any sense for a post demerger poly Ru entity.

I welcome a hostile takeover for the Russian assets. Imagine multi bagging on the Russian assets alone then holding kazhakstan as well

"This should be a £20.00 stock , without all this Ukraine nonsense." I agree but we are living in a different world for the time being.

"How do they plan to buy the company when nobody will sell their shares and they can't transfer 10k of USD out of Russia. The offer would need to be in billions and get shareholder approval"

Nesis is wealthy Russian who operates out of Cyprus. He will have no issue moving money to shareholders? And yes he will likely pay billions.

Lat, I think a Russian consortium of buyers would jump to take the Russian assets private at 3 GBP

Richie, we will find out the value of kaz very quickly once it starts trading on the LSE. All depends on the debt

It's really hard to know what the offer will be. It's a strange situation because the Russian assets are basically full value to native russians, yet impaired assets to foreigners.
If debt was evenly divided and they were to get the assets at 1.4b market cap (about 2.50 gbp) they would easily be able to finance the purchase with poly Ru cashflow, even with nose bleed financing rates. At 2.50 this would be a steal for Russian buyers. Imagine buying half a FTSE 100 gold miner at record high gold prices for close to 1 p/e with zero sovereign risk.... From their perspective this will be the best deal since 1991

it would

Novice do you have shares yet? You need shares to come to PolyCon

"Has the idea of refining product in kazak not wavered that idea splice?" Which idea is this? Building ore processing in Kazakhstan is part of the demerger plan I guess?

"Also the massive headache of how a poly ru and poly lse Russian share is valued."
The moex price isn't real because foreigners can't sell. I guess in a go private offer the russian listed stock holders would be given the offer and could vote against the proposal of they didn't like it (ie it was below the Russian listing price). The vote could still pass at 75% without them I suspect.

In my opinion the demerger is just a prelude to taking the company's Russian assets private. Leaving the Russian assets in a company listed on the LSE makes no sense and doesn't solve their problems of transferring dividend from the Russian operations to group or distributing dividends to Russian investors. It would derisk Kazakhstan, that is all.

I fully expect an offer to take poly (Russia) private shortly after the demerger. I think this has been the end game for nesis since at least when orcell came on as chairman.

The approach is surely to get the bad news out before PolyCon. We had the dividend cancelled (not actually bad news btw) and the warnings about the cost of capital and rising input costs. Management and the board would have to be utterly incompetent to hold bad news for this event. The thing that I think will suprise people is how quickly they demerger can be executed. I hope they give timelines. No need for regulator approvals etc.

PolyCon 22 will be nothing but good news about production and how the split well derisk the company

Novice are you long now?

They have definitely had enough time to come up with a de-merger plan. I'm pretty sure Riccardo Orcel and nesis would have already had this progressed prior to orcel coming on board as chairman. The only question I have is how much of it they share in public on Monday.

How will everyone identify each other at PolyCon '22?

As far as I know all shareholders with the same class of shares must be treated the same and made the same offer?

Bigoiler, here is the incident you are talking about. It's pretty standard stuff:
https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1044740334306058241?s=20&t=d-q4lvvdin6xBk9UdM94aQ

So it's already the most traded stock by retail investors and is apparently widely held by retail.
Therefore we propose to ban trading of the stock that retail already owns to protect retail(?)
Since when did the FCA need to protect people from market risk? Fraud I understand they should try to prevent, but this stock has pretty obvious known risks given that there is a highly publicised war in Ukraine. It should be up to the investor if they want to take those risks. Options are risky, cfds are very risky, by the same logic they should be banned (?)

NYSE opens tomorrow afternoon at 2:30

My original post of 90% losses was about equipment. I don't think massed infantry without equipment will work in the plains of eastern Ukraine, it is not Kyiv.

Proportion

Russia have a huge army.
Ukraine have a relatively small army.
Russia have taken losses of maybe 10% of total army and can continue.
Ukraine may have taken losses of 90% of army and have difficulty continuing.

These are figures I have seen but don't have a link to