Member Info for Splice

Yes it's very hard to put a price on this unless you know how the debt is divided up. Is poly Ru saddled with debt? Is poly Kaz debt free? To be revealed.

Motley Fool is an article mill trying to upsell newsletters etc. The only goal here is clicks and getting you into the sales funnel.

I am taking about poly Ru going private (poly Kaz is separate). So half the assets after the spin-off. 3-4 gbp for half the assets they could maybe get away with. If there's peace soon that window closes very fast.

Djones, 0% chance they can't find an auditor.

Is Scott Ritter the ex Iraq weapons inspector?

Ark I agree, they would love to own those assets privately for a low price - who wouldn't.

Panda, yes the offer made to take this private needs to be the same for all shareholders globally. Moex will put a very interesting floor on what they will accept. 1 GBP seems pretty low to me. I'm thinking 3-4 GBP as a low offer.

The decisions being made here about the future of this company will be made by the largest shareholders, the chairman, the board and executive management. The debt is something that can be managed and poly Ru can be taken private if they have the will to do it. I think this is the medium term plan.

The auditor question is a none issue. Deloitte jettisoned their partners in Russia and they cant deliver the audit so had no choice.

Russians have nationalised nothing so far. Spinoffs often create a lot of value and do very well

I think wait for a go-private buyout offer for poly Ru.

Predictions:
Poly Kaz gets spun-off before year end and is listed separately on the LSE.
Poly (Ru assets) gets dumped by many shareholders.
A consortium of Russian investors (nesis and co) slurp the firesale and make an offer to take poly Ru private.
Offer is accepted, poly Ru delists in LSE.
Goes private in Russia for 18 months then realists on MOEX via IPO, nesis and co get even richer.
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This makes perfect sense to me

Do many people seriously think the dividend happens? Evraz cancelled the dividend and there was no price move

Metacalus us what I use to follow the end date predictions:
https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ukraine-conflict/

The question of who summons the first general AI is the only thing that matters this century

Bank, a free ride is a good position, nothing wrong with that. I've been watching the metacalus crowd predictions and they have peace expected in June now.
https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ukraine-conflict/

I don't know what's going to happen but my opinion hasn't changed that this is a very good bet.

I expect the kaz spin-off to happen relatively quickly. Will be interesting to see how Poly Ru trades Vs Poly Kaz. I'm thinking post pinoff, Poly Ru is oversold initially. If you were an absolute madman degenerate gambler, you would sell your Poly Kaz and slurp as much Poly Ru as you could at even lower dips.

Thanks neeeew, I had a bad fever and was fairly tired for a while. I did actually sneakily slurp in 280s while sick in bed. I couldn't resist that old taste of slurping. I have almost 97k now.

Reminds me of a scene in fooled by randomness:

Journalist: are you short or long?
Nassim Taleb: I am short
Journalist: so will the market go up or down next week?
Nassim Taleb: 70% chance it will go up
Journalist: so now you changed your mind and want to be long?
Nassim Taleb: no actually I am now thinking I should enlarge my short position

Cheers bank, I've been meaning to watch the Oliver stone documentary for some time. I've had covid for the last 10 days or so. Better now thankfully

The US has been heavily involved in Ukraine for years. Who is Victoria Nuland...

"180 is the peak, I'll duump there"

"The perfect price to duump is 250"

"If I duump now i can buy back lower"

"Did you hear about the demerger, I'm gonna duump"

"I think I'm gonna... I'm gonna.. I'm.... DUUUUMPING"

My strategy is only sell at 1600+. Event then I may just enjoy the dividends