Member Info for Spikeyj

... just as a by the bye, worth noting that one of
the ways that Covid-19 kills some people is by
causing problems with clotting & thrombosis...

up increase their aviva target to 450.

( shame broker targets mean so little)

good dog, deutsche!

not quite sure how that translates into profits for all the various companies,
but that’s a different matter. ... probably those that can leverage the relevant
technologies & goodwill / ESR credentials into non-covid areas will do best in
long run, but also important to review how much share prices are dependent
on ambitious multiples re covid meds, as opposed to other portfolio elements.

i partly agree with fatprofits, inasmuch as there are an awful lot of different
peeps chasing slices of the same vaccine cake. - ? more interesting at this
point to see who can churn out effective antibody treatments with good
logistics & low production costs? ...also think this pandemic is really showing
the value of rapid sequencing technologies, &there will be money to be made
there. something in media earlier about potential applications to trying to
combat antibiotic resistance; world very, very badly needs progress on that!

yes, quite agree, the more the merrier from a global health perspective.

dunnieboy, from RNS today, AZN vaccine “100% efficacy
against severe or critical disease and hospitalisation.”

... 100% ...

... 100% is pretty good...

(sure, 79% efficacy against *symptomatic* covid19, but tbh i am not that
fussed if some people continue to get mild/ moderate symptoms, but then
don’t die, become severely ill or take up loads of critical care resources.)

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/broken-up-glaxo-will-need-shot-in-the-arm-l78w28vsb?shareToken=038bb74c0965cf87389b0ee4ad841629

it’s a good question, how much UK improvements have been to do with
lockdown versus vaccinations, and what will happen as lockdown eases.

the relevant studies will be those that look at *matched samples*, e.g.
people who are matched for age / weight / occupation / other health
conditions etc, comparing infection, symptom severity and mortality
outcomes for those who have been vaccinated versus those who have
not been, but *otherwise have similar characteristics - i.e. including having
been exposed to same lockdown framework*. any lockdown easing will
tend to increase infection figures, so there is a tricky trade-off between
pace of easing versus vaccine roll-out. all currently authorised vaccines
have demonstrated very good efficacy, but ‘very good’ is sadly not same
as ‘perfect’. another interesting datum to watch will be, amongst all those
who do develop covid infection, what are the ratios between infected folk
with: no symptoms vs mild symptoms vs moderate vs severe disease...?
... would be hoping not just that overall infection rates can be brought low
by vaccination, but also that vaccination will shift those numbers to the left.

...but meanwhile ...
all this vaccine stuff is important, and interesting to some of us, but it is
a sideshow as far as AZN’s overall prospects & share price are concerned.
AZN not primarily a vaccine biz, prospects from a more diverse pipeline.

if you injected a million people with a minuscule
amount of distilled water, some of them would get
seriously ill or drop dead within the next fortnight.

that doesn’t mean that the distilled water killed ‘em.

(although president macron has advised that only french
people aged between 59 and 61 should drink water.)

TR64 11:24: “It takes the Germans to invent mRNA and the Germans and Austrians ** to work out why Astrazeneca causes fatal blood clots.** ’

[asterisks added by me]

i have reported this post to LSE admin for promoting false medical
advice, which is a potential hazard to public health. it would be fine
by me if TR64 wanted to post that some countries are still investigating
a very small number of * as-yet-unexplained * clotting events, that seems
true enough, but content such as his sentence quoted above are falsely
claiming as factual that such events *are* being caused by AZN’s vaccine.

an important fact to remember is that the UK has
now given vaccine to half its adult population, death
rates and ICU utilisation are falling significantly, and
the UK has *NOT* had any significant upturn in adverse
clotting etc. events, after vaccinating 26,000,000 people.

- say it again, * TWENTY SIX MILLION * people vaccinated,
& very, very low serious adverse reactions of *any* type.

the risk /reward ratio of getting on with a vaccination program at speed,
whether with the AZN vaccine or one of the others, versus delays in such
vaccination, is clearly massively in favour of cracking on with vaccination.

doing nothing / procrastinating is not a smart option in the
context of a widespread, highly contagious, deadly disease.

i really don’t buy that theory about scandinavia using the clotting
issue [or perhaps more accurately, non-issue? ] as an excuse to stall
roll out of AZN vaccine in order to wait for biontech vaccine instead.

firstly, they could simply say that is what they prefer to, if that genuinely is
what they thought would be better in public health terms - no benefit to
deliberately mislead their population about that. secondly, even if they do
have a strong preference for the biontech vaccine for whatever reason, they
would still be way better off in terms of mortality, ICU pressures etc, to roll
out at least one dose of AZN vaccine ASAP, but then to switch over to second
dose, & subsequent boosters, from another preferred vaccine, at a later date.

meanwhile, BBC overview of some of the heat & smoke re AZN vaccine:
“What happened with the AstraZeneca vaccine?”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56456022

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/vaccines-more-effective-on-brazilian-coronavirus-variant-than-thought-study-reveals-kl3jgrb2r?shareToken=30d05d920c3e9d00d4aa4cec82c3aaae

... ticking along very nicely, dull but likeable share ...

as uncle boris said today, “...the thing that isn’t safe is catching covid.”

dan, did you listen in to that recent investor call?
if so, was there any useful substance/ steer in it? tia.

you might be right, dan, i have no inside information about any of that. ...but
my own understanding of why anyone would actually want to be partnering
with ADME is nothing to do with technical skills in petrochemical or engineering
areas, it is just because ADME could be seen as useful channel for raising funds.

hope it works out for you.

i expect that ADME will be expected to pay its fair share of the
signature fee etc, in proportion to stakes that the participants
are trying to take in the venture. i might be wrong, of course,
maybe oilbank are feeling very, very generous, but i think in
principle they will be looking to ADME to help rustle up funds.

(let’s face it, ADME doesn’t really have any other meaningful expertise
to contribute other than its previous skill working the bucket shops.)

why would others want to give ADME a free ride?

sheungy, main issue anyway is about protection from
severe disease, not the mild to moderate stuff. i’m not
that fussed if a few millennial snowflakes get the sniffles
and have to spend a few days on the sofa under a duvet.

(PS ... some of the above post slightly tongue in cheek, lol)