Member Info for Spikeyj

22:01, decent post.

hi stille. you haven’t really answered my question ...i asked you
about evidence of *frequency* ... but your link does not give that.

your post at 12:31 seems to claim that the body will inevitably ‘reject’
the viral vector at 3rd dose. but that is not what the article you cite says.

for sure, it is a *possibility* that repeated doses using the same viral
vector *may* lead to *some* reduction in useful immune response.
but that’s a long way from your assertion that - “body rejects viral
vector on 3rd dose”. - so why overstate things in that way, stille?

yeah, seems pretty generous loan terms (for the lender!) n’est ce pas?

interesting co-incidence that someone dumped a million shares today.

gosh, you do make that sound very definite, stille - care to provide evidence
about the *frequency* with which that does actually happens with the AZN
vaccine ( - or happens with other vaccines that use the same viral vector)?

i see that sweet k thinks something
may be stirring regarding whetstone.

if you read enough of toff’s posts, you would come to believe
that the GSK share price is controlled by a secret conspiracy of
lizard men, illuminati, lord lucan & the lost colonists of roanoke.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/big-pharma-seeks-cure-for-reputation-8qdhwwh9n?shareToken=cb6d1e2e30428e8651ff2f5e6350d146

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/big-pharma-seeks-cure-for-reputation-8qdhwwh9n?shareToken=cb6d1e2e30428e8651ff2f5e6350d146

... mind you, it’s a sad fact that demographics skewed
towards younger population in poorer countries, so side
effect issues for younger groups with AZN vaccine may signify.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/m-amp-g-paid-250k-for-bosss-chauffeur-crpc6njl7?shareToken=b895470669f1252c551e40190dd763f6

good planning, imv. i am not a fan of tories at all, & boris & his mates have
made a horrendous mess of many things over last year’s pandemic, but
one of the things they really did get right was to procure large quantities of
multiple vaccines, rather than place too much reliance on any one vaccine.

sorry, pressed post button too soon. - meant to say also,

1. overall side-effect profile is overall very good. possible clotting
issue is serious for affected individuals, but it is **extremely rare**.

2. AZN vaccine remains a very useful part of national vaccination program to
protect public heath, very favourable risk / benefit ratio at population level.

3. most of AZN earnings per share are nothing to do with covid vaccines.

(i sold some of my MNG today, and added to AZN.)

not sure i understand why you expected a “bigger fall”.

headline issues:

covid is a very widespread, very contagious, very deadly disease.

AZN very rapidly developed a vaccine which is very, very, effective
at preventing death and hospitalisation from covid, and within a
remarkably short space of time has been able to manufacture
large quantities of that vaccine, cheaply & easily to store & transport.

interesting considering implications for AZN share price going forward.

possible negative, the covid19 vaccine issues have taken up *a lot* of
senior management time.... has that impacted on the development &
exploitation of the rest of AZN’s pipeline & commercial opportunities?
vaccine is not core biz for AZN, but has taken up attention & resource.

... quite possible it will limit soriot’s time in office (is that good or bad?)

... meanwhile though, AZN’s oncology pipeline etc remains action-packed.

possible negative; some EU politicians seem to have gone out of their way
to blame AZN as much as they possibly can for deaths, lockdowns, economic
damage and slow vaccine roll-out. so inasmuch as their populations believe
their politicians, that may cause some reputational damage for AZN within EU.

possible negatives: ... are there llitigations risks vs AZN from side-effect issues?

possible positive; unlike other pharma companies, AZN promised very early &
very generously to supply the developing world at cost on ongoing basis ... a
major global public good, that they simply did not need to offer. seems likely
implications for AZN’s reputation in developing world /poorer countries may
well be different (and better) than implications within the sclerotic EU. (similarly,
AZN reputation amongst ESG funds and investors should overall be enhanced.)

tragedy in the making:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/panic-astrazeneca-vaccine-threatens-push-covid-immunity-france-rrl7l7vqd?shareToken=dafadbfd1b6af17da6929315aecdfed7

it is already a very big scandal imo, with EU politicians responsible for
many excess deaths from covid by their failure to support & implement a
rapid, efficient, widespread vaccine rollout program to their populations.

... not really sure what relevance it has for confidence about
future funding whether the ADME CEO has met someone’s kids
or not, or sat in their car or not.... but hey, it’s not my money.

gl all honest folks.

tempted to flog a few more, but holding off, hoping
(lol)for something more like 1600 by mid/late summer.

hi dan, thanks for the reply.

yes, i suppose the question would be, if osa believes that the previous
wells were in the ‘wrong place’, then what is the more recent geophysical
evidence to suggest that the proposed new well will be in a better place.
... risk is that this is simply wishful thinking on osa’s part, which may or
may not come true. if he has good evidence to explain why they are so
confident that a new well will have hugely better chance of success, it is
puzzling why they don’t just post that as a nice factual presentation on
ADME website, or through an RNS. his talk gave lots of information on
deal structuring, but still very little about actual asset at the heart of it.

i see the RNS today still does not give any clarity about when project level
debt will be cleared... ? sounds a bit like lawyers are haggling over it? jmi.

major part of the issue is simply that younger people are much less at
risk of dying / severe disease / hospitalisation from covid than oldies.

so although from current data EMA says no evidence that age is a relevant
risk factor affecting likelihood of a severe adverse clotting side-effect, even
if the likelihood of rare clotting event is exactly the same as for older people,
the * risk/benefit calculation is different *, since younger people stand to
gain less as individuals from having a covid vaccine (...though the additional
public health complication is that the wider community may well benefit
more from the young person being vaccinated, than the youth will themself.)

if an 18 year is very very very unlikely to get a bad blood clot, but is also very
very very unlikely to die of covid, may not be wise for them personally to have
a jab, although from herd immunity perspective probably would be helpful ...
so instead we may just have to wait for that 18 year either to have a vaccine
with even fewer /even rarer side-effects, or just want for the 18 year old to catch
covid while snogging someone round back of asda / waitrose (take your pick).

carter, presumably in your position
there is also choice 4, buy yet more?

choice 5, shorting, would have been an absolute goldmine for anyone
who could have arranged enough borrow over the years since MXO
overbid for those mexican assets which it then relinquished. but i don’t
believe there ever have been v big short positions against this share.