Member Info for Spikeyj

... just had a whizz through of that presentation ... seems to be chock-full of
osa boasting about the structure of the deal, and what stupendous returns
he believes it will return, but (so far as i could hear) almost *next to nothing
about the nature of underlying asset* that the deal concerns — such as the
specific history of wells that have been previously dwelled at barracuda, the
geological profile & risks known at that field and within OML 141, and what
these would imply statistically for ‘chance of success’ when hoping for good
production from the drilling of one new well at that location - his sales pitch
seems to treat it as stone-cold certainty that lots of oil will gush from day one.

if that happens, well done, but seems bizarre imv to treat it as so risk-free,
given the previous history of failed attempts to drill & produce at this site.

maybe i missed it as i was skimming a bit, but i didn’t hear anything about
recent marginal field awards & requirements for signature bonus payments.

happy to read posts from anyone who spotted more detailed geophysical
data in the presentation, or who heard something else about the marginals.

hi dan, may i ask,

(a) did they provide any concrete geologic data to explain why
they believe a new barracuda well is so much more likely to
succeed than previous ones? - or is the story still, that pis should
simply trust adme's technical team, without knowing such info?

(b) did he say anything about the marginal field awards, and
plans re signature bonus payments? (- from memory, nigerian
govt. said those ought to be paid within next fortnight, approx.)

thanks.

EMA has found *no evidence* that age or sex are relevant risk factors
for these very rare clotting events. so there is no good scientific basis
for offering it to older people but not to younger. even if it is a real but
rare risk genuinely associated with AZN vaccine, that very rare risk seems
to be the same for all adult age groups, from the currently available data.

EU may have quite a job on their hands overcoming vaccine
‘hesitancy’ / scepticism, if they want to catch up with UK.
macron & his fellow travellers have made that a lot worse.

... if US don’t need it, good stuff, as more
then available for the rest of the world.

delightful to see falling case rates & death rates in uk.
- overall vaccination programme working really well.

well done NHS, AZN, oxford uni, pfizer,
& roll on additional vaccine options soon.

v. far from out of the woods yet, but great to see the uk progress, & setting
aside jokes about the french, it is very sad to see the ongoing tragedy in the
EU. i do hope for their people’s sake that their politicians sober up soon.

sheungy, “... 30/18.1 million with an unproven link
compared to covid most people choose the jab.”

unless they are french; macron & his compatriots are strange.

inkose, “... pregnancy following vaccination...”

... they told her that she would only feel a little pr ick...

stille, no evidence to date that severity, or absence, of side-effects after
vaccination has any relationship with efficacy of vaccine for individuals.

useful to have data to understand potential risks in proportion.
- causality not proven, but for the sake of argument let’s assume,
pessimistically, that all 30 of those cases are caused, at least in
part, by the AZN vaccine. ... 30 case from 18.1 million vaccinations
means less that one case per 603,000 - that’s a pretty darn rare effect!

most likely just a roll-over, given that very small price
differential and those trade times pretty close together.
(probably same for that pair of 250K trades circa 8.20).

... probably some s/term trader types who were hoping for a bit
more of a pump & ramp around the recent placing & barracuda
news, and are still hanging on in the hope of a spike to dump on.
(? - perhaps when they announce something about marginal field
allocation & signature payments? - did that come up in osa’s pep talk?)

12:57, interesting suspicion, thanks for the idea, fleccy.

take a look at his history as a director on the companies house website,
and see what became of the companies he has been involved with; it’s a
struggle to find one where he has ever made money for ordinary s/holders.

so his previous track record has not exactly set a very high
bar; almost any deal he does next could be an improvement.

osa certainly likes to talk up this share, but it’s not evident that
his gift of the gab translates into meaningful outcomes. - bear in
mind that this is the same CEO who was confidently saying that
ADME share price would be 15p+ by xmas 2020. how did that go?

1 in c. 88,000 vaccinated in germany...

would suggest, more an issue for german government to make
statements & explain balance of risks for its population. AZN
manufacture, but up to the politicians to persuade, if they want
to. bear in mind AZN don’t profit more, if more gets used in.

i have no problem with people expressing their views, just so long as they
provide links to publicly available evidence, that other people can then look
up and evaluate for themselves, if they are making claims about death rates,
side-effect frequency, etc. .... without such verifiable evidence, it is way too
easy for anti-vaxers, whatever their obnoxious motivations, to scaremonger.

similarly, if TR64 wants to make claims that a death or serious incident
has been ‘attributed’ to a particular vaccine, then it would be important
to provide a link which people can check that states clearly who has
claimed that supposed ‘attribution’, & on what basis / with what proof.

personally speaking, i am really not that fussed about people in the
rich industrialised nations getting more choice about which particular
vaccine they want against covid-19. there are several pretty good
vaccines around, all of which are showing low frequency of serious
side-effects, and good protection against death or serious illness. it
would seem seriously selfish for rich nations to get hung up on having
more choice, when much of the rest of the world still hasn’t yet had the
genuine choice of taking an effective vaccine, versus taking nothing at all.

did you ever see the old ealing comedy film, with alec guiness?
his character nearly got lynched for inventing ever-lasting fabric.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/care-home-covid-19-infections-reduced-by-60-with-a-single-vaccination-mn66sh7t0?shareToken=986624cf3cd9d7ca3b5de7509f26f27d

i am inclined to believe soriot’s own account of why they did it
... that it is, it was simply an altruistic action, taken in response to
the request from his friend (and former BoD colleague) prof bell.

i don’t think it signals any particular wish by AZN to become a
major player in the longer term in the global vaccine market. &
tbh i hope they don’t distract themselves by doing such. jmo.

if not, maybe borrow someone else’s wife?

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/03/rare-clotting-disorder-may-cloud-worlds-hopes-astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine

- this article suggesting 1 serious clotting event in 25,000 vaccinations
in norway. that is a higher frequency than the canadian one posted
earlier (which i understand is based on global data, rather than a single
country), but much lower than TR64’s figure of “1 death in every 1400”.