Member Info for Spikeyj

(no cash prize, winner gets a cuddly toy.)

anyone would to take a punt in a 2000p sweepstake?

question is, when will PRU share price hit 2000p,
taking into account the proceeds from spin-off of
jackson? - my personal guesstimate, circa may 2023.

i think this is the article matty had in mind:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/buying-on-the-dip-investors-pile-in-to-stocks-ripe-for-a-recovery-p8hfh0lm5?shareToken=4fc9b298d5860a05cd9475ffff8d6c91

it is very understandable why they are panicking.
but very sadly it is actively harming their people.

UK govt got it horribly wrong imv locking down way too
late (more than once), messed up very badly with PPE
procurement & distribution, and the track and trace
system was, and remains, a stunningly expensive total
failure. but fortunately for the british people, the UK
government got it right with vaccines by being willing
to spend plenty on it from early on; backing multiple
vaccines rather than trying to favour one single candidate;
& then being willing to take decisions involving positive
risk-taking on the balance of probabilities. the continentals
have been too slow , too attached to domestic candidates,
& have failed to take into account that waiting for certainty,
and inaction, are very, very costly decisions when a deadly
pandemic is in full swing. 100s of thousands dying b/c of that.

i sincerely hope UK government is held to
account for those other failures, though.

well, they have approximately one month left from now to hand over
their share of the signature bonus for the marginal oil field. so that does
create a kind of latest date, imho, of just over a fortnight from now to get
the placing, [cough], ‘subscription’ sorted, otherwise they will not be able to
complete & collect the funds in time to meet nigerian government deadline.

(... although this being nigeria, perhaps the government
could be induced to show some date flexibility in return for
some persuasive incentive to the right sympathetic ear?)

funny coincidence, SAK50 used to talk about a family member where something
very similar indeed happened to them, shortly before that ID got banned on lse.

some self-defeating actions under way from panicky EU governments, sadly,
but i think also some very active mischief-making on social media by putin, the
iranians, & possibly the n koreans, who will do what they can to damage the west.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pound-left-vulnerable-as-speculators-push-it-higher-tjx8qwwzv?shareToken=60655f11b9274dddc58d0121ca3b947a

“I decided gambling / trading had to be the way forward.”

seriously?

yes, there’s not a lot out there. this just shows the BVI registration:

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/ADME/holding-s-in-company/14547566?lang=en

back in may, danbrown had the fairly plausible theory
that hessia group is some kind of vehicle for andy frangos.

however, it is BVI registered, so not easy to get info about its
nature and activity (which is presumably, part of the point).

should bear in mind the length of time it typically takes for someone to die
from covid19 once infected, & also the length of time that it typically takes
for someone to build up a useful immune response after being vaccinated.

... immune response needs a few weeks to build up, even with a ‘good’
vaccine & with individuals with reasonably functional immune system.

and covid19 tends not to kill people very quickly. i’m not sure of most recent
figures, but i remember a few weeks ago seeing data indicating median time
from covid infection to death was about 18 or 19 days. (by contrast, ebola
deaths often circa 7-10 days post infection, while the ‘sweating sickness’
that killed large numbers in tudor times often killed within a single day!)

so it doesn’t seem that remarkable if a number of people in a nursing
home die from covid even after being vaccinated about a month before.
i.e. they would still not have had time to build up much immunity by the
second week after vaccination ... & so if infected during that second week,
it is then sad but not surprising if some end up dying about a month after
the vaccination, as that is how long the disease takes to kill many folk.

ok. so you believe that other companies would have been willing to pay
far more than ADME did, & in cash, but the vendor preferred to take ADME
shares instead. however, you don’t have evidence for that. fair enough.

me, i think they just took the best offer that they could get, and
ADME had to offer mainly shares because it didn’t have more
cash to offer. ...up to others what they think is more plausible.

and although you originally claimed that the last fundraise price was 7p,
you’ve given no evidence that they raised any new funds at 7p in december.

i think the RNS history is pretty clear. last fundraise was at 5.5p in august.

thanks for the polite, company-focused discussion, appreciated. GL.

do you have any evidence that anyone made
them an equivalent, or better, cash only offer?

i strongly suspect that the vendor would *much* rather have had an extra
$2 million in cold, hard cash rather than those ADME shares ... but that was
actually never an option, because ADME simply didn’t (and still doesn’t)
have that sort of cash... as one can see from the various revisions to the
agreement they then had to make, ADME had to further reduce the cash
element in the EER payment and offer even more shares & CLN instead.

as to whether that those shares notionally valued at 7p a share are really
“worth” $2 million, that’s debatable, to put it mildly. i’d suggest, they are
actually ‘worth’ what the market would pay if they tried to re-sell them. &
as we all know, the bid side for ADME for a fair old while is nowhere near 7p.

it would feel different if ADME had made an offer to buy that stake for *either*
a certain amount of cold hard cash, *or* a certain amount of shares, and the
vendor had then freely elected to take the shares rather than the cash. one
could then have confidence that the vendor genuinely thought, rightly or not,
that those shares were really worth 7p in cash. but that’s not what happened.

(i think that the 7p price gets used in that kind of RNS as a kind of
attempted price anchoring, i.e. a method to try to influence investor
perception of company worth, regardless of company fundamentals.)

my point stands that the last fundraising was at 5.5p, not 7p.

; )

putting it more simply, if i buy a house from you by giving you
shares for 10% of my company Spikeyj Ltd, then i have acquired
a new asset, but i have *not* raised any funds for Spikeyj Ltd.

ginksy, you appear to be misunderstanding that RNS.

those shares were *not* issued to raise any funds for ADME.
... nobody paid the company 7p cash for each of those shares,
& the deal did not increase cash levels on ADME’s balance sheet.

they were part of a payment made by ADME to acquire that additional
piece of AJE. essentially, ADME initially said that they would pay out a
chunk of cash, and a chunk of shares. but as things progressed, ADME
progressively backtracked on how much cash it would pay (because it
Is pretty short of cash....) and instead paid out even more shares at
varying notional rates, and also persuaded the vendor to accept a CLN
for some of it, rather than cash up front. but that is very different from
issuing new shares that raise fresh cash for the company at 7p a share.

[? did that deal mean that ADME shares were really worth 7p a share at
12/20? - no, not necessarily. the proof of the pudding would be in knowing
what someone would pay for that same stake from EER *using cash only*.]

the last time that this company managed to persuade anyone to give
them cash for new shares was in august 2020, when they placed for a
discount at 5.5p (issuing several chunks of 5.5p warrants at the same time).

if i agree to sell you a house in exchange for a £500K cash plus shares
for 10% of a company that you run, the price that we claim we are using
to value those shares for that deal doesn’t actually change what those
shares are really worth (e.g. whether we say they are being priced at £1
a share or at £10 a share, your company is still the same old business!)
- and once i have those shares for 10% of your company, their real value
to me is what the market will pay, not what we said we priced them at.

nobody has posted anything about the investor call yesterday,
which didn’t seem to change either the s/price or the volume.

so in the interests of balanced & fair discussion about ADME,
would anyone who took part care to post some of the positives?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/glaxo-sale-ends-decade-of-hope-for-flagship-facility-pptpjrfm7?shareToken=95c6d011231238be805d8663cbccd8d7

ginksy, looking back over RNS history, looks to me like the last fundraise
was actually at 5.5p, back in august 2020, which was a (small) discount to
market price at the time. the various warrants that got sprayed around to
various parties linked with that fundraise (e.g. for “consultancy”, to their
broker, and to some people making an unsecured loan) were set at 5.5p
for some, & 5.5p *or price of subsequent fundraiser if lower* for others.

you said that the last fundraise was at 7p, but it doesn’t look like that to me...
...please could you specify which RNS announced a 7p raise, after august 2020?

(NB when they agreed payment terms regarding that EER chunk, they
agreed to use 7p as a notional price for part of the *payment made by ADME*,
but that was not a share price used to raise new funds from the market...
i think that was partly an attempt to try to make people believe ADME shares
were worth 7p, but nobody was paying them 7p to buy new shares at that time.)

... very happy to be corrected if i have overlooked a recent 7p fundraise RNS.