Member Info for Sotolo

Interestingly I emailed the Hochschild PR for the first time this Weds at 7.17am to ask how they thought the Argentinian capital controls might impact their San José mine, I had an informative and reassuring reply by 7.36am, pretty impressive compared to Tibbs getting blood out of the Buchanan stone historically! Also I find it reassuring that Hoc have been around over 100 years, and the family still own over half; in many companies new management are helpful in shaking things up, but mining is a very long term gain where it is useful to have a management that has experienced the setbacks that always come in mining, as us last year, and don’t waste the profit in the good times like so many, and for us shareholders to take a long term view as many of here do with cey.

Lovely to see you back again Tibbs, like me you find this board impossible to resist. Cey gives us lots of excitement as we pit our wits seeing if we can see the economic future better. and enjoying the fellowship of, and argy bargy with, our fellow investors (or gamblers I would say when shorter term, as v hard to predict price of gold, or interest rates, world economic future or disasters it may depend on). I for one am pleased to see this correction (I hope that is what it is) as the rise has been meteoric and a near doubling of share price in a shortish period, and gold up $250 so quickly. The board has been strangely quiet without you so as Tiger says ‘welcome back’

Sorry about the header, I too bought more a couple of days ago but I must must stop!! I piled back in between 150 and 200 and promised no more above that this time, (only when it cam back below 200 three weeks ago which seemed madness and couldn’t be resisted), so I do not have to fret when it falls, same with Centamin between 80 and 100, but like an addict I still top up, again at 217, and 142 Centamin though only a tiny bit asII now have 30% of my savings in cey 27% in Hoc, and 8% in Fres, so two thirds, talk about chickens and baskets, but I have been waiting so long for this, let’s hope it’s real. But I must not, must must not buy more!!

Less than 3 months ago hoc was making about $1 an ounce (aisc 13.5 silver 14.5). Just today another 50% has gone on that with the silver’s 50cent rise. And our share price has barely moved.
Who would have dreamt 3 months ago that if silver hit $19, as it just has, Hoc would only be £2.20. It doesn’t make sense unless Hoc holders are really weary of this rise, and expect an imminent collapse again, at some point the market will regain confidence in Hoc and it now has a lot of catching up to do!

Me too Tiger, it seems a screaming buy with silver at 18.50, with silver gain just in last fortnight profits should be up 50%. I think that the market is still unforgiving of the recent poor figures, contributed to by closing Arcata which gave double whammy of lowered output, and the costs of mothballing it. Also there were some poor analyst views (from memory especially Berenburg which said worse seams for next year or two), but worse output or profit some years are a bane of mining - look at Centamin with its shares near halving and then regaining all they lost on bad news within a couple of years. Hoc is also tightly held, over half by the family and much by institutions, a few sellers hit the price hard and vice versa. I have been buying even more in the hope or expectation of versa, plus they have exploration prospects, Arcata could come back if silver boom lasts, and they have been around so much longer that almost any other goldie

Supercharger don’t know where you got that from, Hoc is relatively small at no 8, doing barely a quarter of the ounces Fresnillo, the largest by far, followed by KGHM Poland 2nd, and surprisingly Glencore third

Gold was $30 in 1960 so it has risen 50 fold, rather more than houses actually. It is above its usual price going back to Roman times, but no reason it shouldn’t go further above with current interest rates going to lowest ever

Dear Tibbs. You seem to leave this board as often as I do. I hope you too will miss it again and be back. I think it is reasonable to say that the form Brexit takes is not a major factor affecting the price of gold, apart from the fall in sterling helping our share, and discussing the matter just becomes the same bickering and intolerance as outside. so on both scores understandable for some here to ask that we stick to matters currently affecting the gold price and cey more, such as trade wars, interest rates, demand, ounces mined and costs. However as Prof says we are like a large family that holds many different views, that is our strength. Many have been here for years and most are civil. Come back soon, we may disagree on some things, but different opinions are what is so wonderful on this board. Respect!

Of course it would take a year of these gold prices to give this extra profit, but let’s see what the price averages for this year by the end of it, as Prof says whether it will be as much as 10c we shall see, I think the price of gold would have to average quite a bit north of here to take account of the first half, but still isn’t it lovely

Yup I think you are broadly right, if a trifle optimistic, which augurs well for the share price, which hasn't quite caught up. $250 per ounce should work out to around £50m extra profit after profit share (another £10m just since last thurs). If the gold price rises further so the half year averages the current gold price, and Cey returned all this to us as it often does, I think it would be around an extra 5p per share, or 6cents, plus maybe another cent for small production increase and aisc. Not bad, and f the current gold price holds or increases then our share price must rise. There is always a bit of a lag till the market really believes it. I bought some more last week at 132 as I think I do, (famous last words) but now going to sit back

Jus so Tibbs but isn’t it ironic, as Tiger says, that all these bad things are good for gold, but peace and love would see it tumble; here we are, holders of Centamin , with our minds hoping it will soar as we read the politics right, but our hearts hoping we are wrong and the world will get a better place.

Tiger you are wonderful

Yes Prof, also gold which for the last couple of years only snapped up on bad world news, but quickly came back on any world good news following this more. Now it is happily for us doing the opposite, coming back a little with no bad news and Fed looking a little less likely to lower, but seeming to jump more on any bad economic or world news. As a result of my recent optimism, which started tentatively with some extra purchases around 80 , I naughtily bought a few more on Monday, 2662 ta 132.7, as cey took a temporary dip, to take me to a round 500,000, as I couldn’t resist. Now if the urge takes me to add more please tell me no, as I have far too many in this boat. But I remain a happy holder, I spent 2018 in gloom as I continually saw gold weak and our share price tumbling to 90 from 160 with lousy results; it fell further than. I predicted to 78,, but this board were cross with me for feeling negative, and some wouldn’t believe I was a holder, so I left for a while, as dear Tibbs once did, rather hurt. For the last few months I have felt positive like you, and still do. I do think that gold could take a tumble on good US China trade talks/agreement, but I feel with sentiment so strong if rates stay low ( a big IF depending on US economy), it will snap back up , and this has further to go. I do not post hoping to make the price rise from my tiny remarks on this board, the share is far too big for that, but I remain a long term holder first in at 50, not believing I can time markets, just adding but definitely now have enough. I very much appreciate others’ contrary views, which help me question mine and being honest in what they think. Finally it is a relief to me seeing gold take a breather as was getting too frothy, and can now hopefully build a base for further rises. And as you said Cey is looking even happier with happier news of its own to add to strong gold, look at Hoc and Fres both repeating us last year (tho helped by rising not falling gold) on production and cost figures.

Thanks Soberman. The. challenge is selling it, as so illiquid and such a tiny market. Opti much easier to exit form tho again only in small amounts so about ten trades. You are right in ‘gamble’ as it is impossible to value Skin and depends both on outcome of trials, but also how it compares to competitiors..

Certainly at my broker, barclays, t is hard to get a market quote to either buy or sell even in small amounts and impossible in sizes I try. Would you like a screenshot to show this is not utter rubbish? I am sure others on the board have found the same. It is also true that we will not know the real value of skin till trials complete and it may soar or tumble. The funny thing is while you say I try to plug Cey, on that board contributors sometimes say the opposite, when I am gloomy about gold or production as a couple of years ago, as I just tell it how I see it as a long term holder of a footsie top 200 stock that I don’t think is affected by bulletin board tittle tattle, on skin I merely say I haven’t a clue which way it will go? On the Cey board many helpfully say how they see it and why, often from positions of great knowledge. . I wish you would tell us your skin views and why, as I appreciate the views of others, and also the broker you use that gets you instant quotes for skin. Sadly it is down another 10% since my post earlier in the week when I failed to get a quote.

Tiger, I have been adding to both but more to cey than hoc, thinking like you, also some more Fres in the lower 600’s that promptly fell but then went back up. With PM’s seeming so resilient, bouncing back again today, I actually just added some more hoc at 218 as I feel the news was neutral yet 5% cheaper than yesterday morn, and more geared with potential for Arcata to restart and some of the exploration to come off. Hoc is also only worth two thirds of cey, with slightly lower production and slightly higher costs offset by slightly lower tax than cey’s Profit share. So could be better value, but key as with all miners is how long their gold will last, and how costly to find replacement.

It is amazing how this share is almost totally illiquid with just a few minute deals, can’t even get a quote to sell 1000! (Let alone my 400000). Happily managed to sell the rather more opti I had bit by bit around 100 and 95 and put that in cey . Hopefully one day I will be pleased I couldn’t sell the skin, though maybe they’ll be as hard to sell when the price has double or halved - and I have no idea which, hence no metrics that make it seem sensible to hang on

Hoc announced its first half results this morning. They seem good, costs a bit lower than expected, ounces a bit higher, and full year projection (which is quite similar in ounces and costs to Cey) maintained and should be beaten. Interesting that Hoc, with its explorations costs and paying down of debt pays 2 cent interim dividend on share price of 220, while cey just announced 4 cents on share price of 140 so more than 3 times as much.

First half looks good, no nasty surprises, costs well controlled.
Interesting that Hoc with its expensive exploration and paying down of debt pays 2 cent divi on a 220 share price while cey pays 4 on a 140 share price so nearly 4 times as much .

The share is already up 75% helped a bit by recovering production and sentiment, but goes up (or down) like a staircase as the gold price and share price play catch up. But overall mining shares buyers can’t quite yet believe the gold price rise is for real having been caught out so many times. If it sticks then a few more stairs to climb imho. In my simple maths every $100 on gold should be $25m roughly on profits or 1.5% extra annual return per share or around 25% on share price, ....I think ???