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Prof isn’t it lovely. Even better cey is beginning to seem a bit undervalued. When cey was fair value at 80 or 90 gold was nearing $1250, so it made $300 an ounce profit (halved by profit share). With gold at $1550 profits should be double, so the shares should be double less 7% for the overall falling market and so lower pe’s. Then add 7% back for fall in the pound, and these should be 160+ if gold price is seen to hold.

Hoc is the 8th largest silver miner
Any view on why profits were som paltry last year, and how much they might have recovered in first Half?

Prof we have been waiting a long time for this. Not only has the sterling high been taken out, but even better gold has seen off the ¼ rather than ½ point rise with just the expected quick fall. I was heavily criticized for talking Cey and gold down a year or two ago, as I said they would fall, now I am feeling excited on the upside I. feel this is confirmed by this week’s action. Good luck all.

I think it was also quite simply profits tumble last year, sending the PE soaring and justifying a halved share price along with low gold, and with his the dividend tumbled too, today the interim was nearly doubled and amazingly good, virtually 3% for interims!! plus profits on a recovering trajectory.

Tibbs I think forward guidance and great dividend are driving prices higher as they should, thanks management for pulling through a sticky period, now fingers crossed that if gold takes a tumble later, on the FED news, it is only short lived; IF POG continues to rise we should have a perfect concatenation of circumstances, the opposite of last year - and luckily last years lower production and sales were just when price was lower.

Isn’t that lovely, also gold at £1178.23 just 60p short of it’s all time high in sterling of £1178.93 , glad we both have too many cey just now.

Prof. If I didn’t have far too many eggs in this basket, and. a promise to myself no more, as a long term holder I would certainly be buying more now with this promise of a return to normal and such a good dividend. Tiger it will be interesting if you are disappointed by your sale, or whether the market looks to the lousy profit and aisc, or forward as it should which should lead to a rise,, and whether gold takes a tumble after the fed today, though I think that will only be short lived.

Probably a bit premature for buying Fres, hence just dipped a toe, , aisc has risen hugely, even worse than cey warning last year, however hoping silver price will pull the share up after it goes down a bit, and not too worried about getting the lowest

I did at 655, a bit after 2pm, but only £7000 in the sipp , probably bonkers, I agree often shares continue to fall on bad news, and Mizolgit did drive me off this board saying whatever I did was the opposite of right (tho my hunk of cey at 79p hasn’t been bad so far) , but with Fres the dividend cut was more apalling than anything else and ultimately I think it is profit that counts. not divi that matters Whatever I have far far too high a proportion of my portfolio in PM miners, probably even more bonkers and Mizolgit would whip me, and the timing .... I fear a pull back on the ¼ not ½ cut in rates tomorrow. But finally as you say Prof gold seems to what to rise. And the thing bout shares is every reaction is different.

I think the share price is lower because of sharply lower profits, which can of course be put at management’s door too. This were caused by lower production, higher costs, not so great gold price and of course the increased profit share that has really hit us. Of course management’s poor communication doesn’t help, as in the failure to mention sharp production falls last year in the report just before they happened, or produce the promised 3 year forecast by the end of this June. However for the share to rise it is not communication that needs to change but profits. I bought a lot at 80, and more at 96 as the rising gold price will help even if production and costs remain stagnant. I am banking on them not getting worse on Jul 18th figures, and hoping they’ll improve. I am even heartened by so many on this board having given up, if Cey is currently unloved then there is little sentiment to lose, and more to gain, but I understand that many feel so many times bitten by falling profits they worry we could get more bad news on Jul 18th so have sold out. As said I remain invested and hopeful and do not wish to move my money now.

I’m not sure the market does hate cey any more, as prof pointed out it is also the trend and future expectation that really affect share price and, judging by our share price, sentiment has really turned, Cey is up nearly 40% in last month while HGM is up around 25% if I am looking at the charts rights, they tend to go in spurts so HGM catching up. up with a roaring cey. May cey now continue...and our much reduced profits return to where they were and more (hope)

Recess just so. Is the gold rise a suckers rally as we have seen so often after similar Trump surprises, or finally for real. the Grand Old Duke of Gold marched up to 1360 or so, and then marched right back down again so often. We have tried to get beyond that hill for years, while costs have been rising reducing our profit as each time the 1360 deliver less. So will this rise too turn and lead to even bigger miner falls?
Gosh hope not but we’ve been burned so many times......

Iinteresting academic paper, , thanks to whoever posted the link that got me here https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=937027118025004092071075089068084002015011046006095011102005007125086122098069021112012063127057051019035115093104125080107085038047089019092069117001013018094069086033106084105126020121088071123001114123097065082118006007069086122011082090082088&EXT=pdf

The gist, if I red it right, is that the gold price has been pretty stable in real terms since Ancient Rome, more recently it has kept pace with US inflation (cpi), undershooting then overshooting, from around 1.4times the cpi inflation figure to 7.3 times, as investors climb onto a momentum bandwagon, but over time reverting to an historic mean of around 3.2 times, around its long term historic norm.
It looks like it was written around 6 years ago when gold was still over $1600 and suggested gold back then was likelier to fall which it has.

Today US cpi is 250 so gold should on this reckoning be between $350 and $1825 with a likelihood of reverting to historic value of around $850, which is slightly worrying. Let’s hope gold price is still on its way to the top of the range, but there doesn’t seem much momentum that way now, rather than being on the way down.

Anyway it is quite an interesting read for bank holiday. It also examines a number of other reasons for golds rise and fall from historical analysis.

Incidentally the Warren Buffet quote seems to be the opposite of what He usually says? He has maintained the US government deficit is tenable as they print dollars

Prof, as always it is illuminating to hear your wise thoughts: my pennorth is that very often POG goes one way immediately after the Fed announcement, then the other properly, catching people out; maybe the first knee jerk mo e is position closing, then on reflection about why was said it reverses. Overall my view is cey is fairly valued at this gold price and mainly dependent of what the gold price does next, till we get further production announcements. I always think that the gold price is to me very dependent on the opportunity cost of holding it. Currently being out of soaring stock market is one opportunity cost. But another is today’s fed announcement of interest rate hold but falling inflation which means real interest rate, to which gold is so inversely correlated is currently rising. I only remain in Cey in hope that when stock market turns down, with falling growth, and when real interest rates go negative then gold will rise. Though it is uncomfortably ironic that we have to hope for a worse economy and world to make money - I call it insurance. But it may take a while and if gold falls for now so should Centamin in the absence of more better mining news. So here’s hoping gold turns up in anticipation of other falling markets and real interest rates, but when, and how many of us are being knocked out in the meantime. All best to you, what do you reckon?

So exactly as expected, steady as she goes, so presumable POG and Silver I’ll be what affects share price in immediate future

Any views on results tomorrow
I asked back on 26th Feb if anyone thought soon the time to switch from hoc to cey. The two shares have moved pretty much in tandem till Cey’s poor results in Feb now partially remedied. One jumping or falling, then the other doing similar or catching up more or less. Their cap is around the same now although cey has been historically higher. Cey produces slightly more and at a lower cost so usually worth more, till last big fall, tho does have court case uncertainty. Presumable people feel more optimistic about Hoc than cey looking forward, this was Hoc guidance for this year back in Feb. Will be interesting to see how first quarter lives up to them. The aisc looks a little high, the lower production is because of closing Arcata I reckon.

§ Production target of 457,000 gold equivalent ounces (37.0 million silver equivalent ounces) excluding Arcata

§ Final decision on Arcata future expected before Full Year results in February

§ All-in sustaining costs expected to be $960-$1,000 per gold equivalent ounce ($11.8-12.3 per silver equivalent ounce)[2]

§ Total sustaining and development capital expenditure expected to be approximately $130-140 million including $15 million of mine development at Inmaculada to access newly discovered veins

I have missed you all. I have been reading and following you and have been away long enough. Tiger I always appreciate reading your views. I think as I always have, that one should look at the costs as well as production and agree court case is largely discounted and doesn’t push price down by 20% as I’ve said before, but personally I think if the case is ever resolved then the price should bounce because of improved sentiment, so maybe 10%. However I am definitely not going to predict what the price will do again, even if I have sadly often been right. It has been a disappointing few months but I am hopeful like you Tiger

Thanks Tiger. You are wise as ever and I agree, I wouldn’t be holding if I didn’t think share price was about right for recovery, and if recovery is as hoped might rise, my point was that I dont think it is 20% below what it should be because of the court case which the pe is telling me is pretty discounted.

TIGER,over time cey and hoc seem to follow each other, , I usually have about the same value of both, now with the recent fall I have £120k more Hoc. I am thinking it might be good to switch some Hoc to Cey with the price out of kilter, both have similar market caps now; today is better than yesterday, but what do you think and would you wait for cey to fall a bit more and Hoc to rise further. Imterestingly Hoc seems to have lower profits and a higher pen than cey, and was also hit a little on results, but has come back, another reason for the switch.
I miss the cey board but many there will only tolerate contributors who talk the share up and/or believe in conspiracies and eschew fundamentals, and supply and demand. All best

Yes they are making good cash even at the terrible silver prices recently, IF silver now picks up.....we are well geared to it, though let’s hope they continue to focus on costs and sensible not foolhardy investment that has been the bane of so many other capital destroying PM miners.