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I am afraid it still depends very much on the price of gold and the same forces are still ranged against it - rising stock markets now we are thru the October correction, so attractive for money, and rising interest rates, also attractive for money, till these reverse properly hard to see gold turning back up for real, and so cey profits fall with both production and gold price, and thus its share price. Imho. Roll on 2019 or 2020 or whenever it turns hopefully while most of us and Sukari still alive. I remain ever optimistic despite my rational mind and now hold far too many again

Interesting gold is barely up in sterling, really wanting it to move across currencies not just reflect falling dollar, in pounds gold has come back from £960 to £937 over last couple of weeks hence cey's drop. We need Uncertains Winnipeg or whatever gold in his basket of currencies was called

Marmot I love your posts, but the Hui gold mining index is only up around 10% as are many other miners that I look at, RRS and ACA are special cases as has had activity beyond the gold price(as u point out). Also most of today’s rise is in fact dollar weakness so good to look in sterling and euro to see what is really happening to gold proce. The miners are still saying they expect gold price to fall back. You gave many reasons it could rise from a split Congress and Senate to rising inflation or lower interest rates, but of course the opposite can happen in any of these and overall the market still seems to be worried about gold falling, and I well and truly don’t know, but admire your optimism, now if only you are right...!

Centamin had a nasty hiccup this year. However in the 5 years I have held them Centamin has more or less doubled while Goldcorp is down 3 fold. Happily a near 6 fold dissimilarity if I have it right

Ps those are ten year real US interestl rates that I just posted, and look positive, and have been rising, not great for gold unless inflation rises . Seems current us inflation was nearly 3% in July, 2¼% in sept but rising again. The interest rate is 2 ¼ % but should rise above 3%. So the two are battling it out

Thanks Elonex. Just to add I don’t think it is either inflation or interest rates that ultimately count on their own, but the expected relationship between the two together.
Interest rates higher than inflation bad for gold, as holding money on deposit creates real return, hence there is an opportunity cost of holding gold
Inflation higher than interest rates good for gold as money loses value.
In early 2016 real us rates fell for around 3/4% to 0 and gold soared, since it has risen to around 1% putting pressure on gold. Now we know rate will rise further but will inflation rise faster. I would say that is the biggest question for the future of our share, alongside the sentiment it creates which can start a trend, that then has momentum and builds.

Finally just to say that I love all the different views her, including the political when relevant to gold value and cey price. But above all this board mostly displays a great tolerance of different views, which to my mind is a key part of democracy.
So all are right!

What a lovely name, I think the day traders get the shares to bounce around which can be good for us longer term holders as can top up when they bash it, and sell at times they are reversing and buying. Moreover they can react wrongly to news and over react, which gives us more opportunities to get more. In the long term however the price reverts to a sensible multiple of profits adding in political dangers and possibilities of black swan mining events. For me anything that adds liquidity is good as it narrows spreads and makes dealing larger amounts easier. Only what I think

As said great they were offering money off yesterday for whatever reason, I bought back another 40k. I hope yesterday’s flash sale is now over, as too tempting to keep buying with gold at this price and cey production recovering

Great for us if MMs have dropped pric as we can buy more on the cheap as Tiger and I have today. However on reflection the MMs have to buy the shares they sell us so who is selling at this lower price and if enough are worried by much lower profit, and are not looking forward with hope, then it is a fair price. Ultimately the big buyers can sell first to dent sentament but the recovery will be quick when they buy and the artificial price just a great short term opportunity for us. Or the MMs need to buy the shares tomorrow but they will just cost them more. Imho.
Anyway on reading in detail the figures worse than I first thought - the reduced Aisc isnt quite that, but evenif today’s price is fair I am happy to have bought more looking to 2019 and 2020

The market sees the third bad figure sin a row, and Negative cash flow, which if continued would lead to low dividends, no dividends and bust. However they say profit warnings come in threes, and I look at the lower aisc and recovery in production. The last two times I have said the negative reaction is underdone and they have further to fall, this time I think it is overdone and like Tiger have put my money where my mouth is and bought more this morning.

As I read this morning’s results:
Well pretty ghastly on the profit/income side and even negative free cash flow, as a result of the expected lower production, lower gold price and the important but sometimes forgotten even higher profit share
BUT
Lower AISC which is great and surprising, well done
And
“We expect Q4 to be highly cash flow generative, including the benefit from the unsold ounces produced in Q3, where we expect gold sales to exceed gold produced.”

ALSO
“The exploration programme has returned another quarter of strong results. Sukari is a world class asset with untapped growth potential as demonstrated by the continued excellent high-grade underground drill results in Q3.”
AND
“At Doropo in Côte d'Ivoire, the Preliminary Economic Assessment is on track for H1 2019. Based on ongoing drilling and work done to date, the Doropo Project is demonstrating increasing potential to be Centamin's next development project.”

So overall, while the market may penalise CEY today for the dreadful income I am now a happy holder (having rebuilt most of my position) with production returning slowly to normal, exploration looking promising, lower aisc helping offset increasing EMRA profit share, and an improved quarter coming up, plus possible exploration icing, now all dependent on the gold price....

As usual hope I have read it right, and let’s see if as many of us have views as last quarter and the previous ones which were horrid and surprising on the downside which I don’t think this is, in fact I am surprised on the aisc, returning to normal and exploration and thank the board for ploughing through the last quarter, even if the market may focus on the negative today

Results for quartet ending 30th sept, due out tomorrow on cey financial calendar website, http://www.centamin.com/investors/financial-calendar/2018

scary indeed, gold we have no control over but still seem to be in the multi year bear
so big question for us is financials due tomorrow, they should be horrid with fallen production but will they be better or worse than expected as a lot of that lower production already built in.

Considering 3rd quarter production results were so horrible presumably we have the third bit of bad news this week, and hopefully the last, 3rd quarter financial figures resulting from the lower production, higher costs etc. The big questions is how will markets react as this is hopefully news they know. It will be a question of whether further surprises on the downside financially, or we are turning and showing hope for the future

My reading is not they don’t want to do anything about it bu can’t as they don’t want to rock the boat, threaten the company and all those lovely dividends we get. Seems they have managed the politics pretty well so far, or Joseph did...

You are quite right the S&P has been overly inflated, but that is not to say we have seen the irrational exuberance that comes with the top of a market, so I think we are seeing a correction, and the S&P will start rising further, putting pressure on gold which it may, or may not, resist, interesting times

Mainly traded in London, as Tiger points out, most London goodies are suffering with investors not believing gold is about to take off now, (plus with market 15% down staying flat they have risen 15% against the market). Let’s hope they are wrong, but worrying and we’ll see when S&P turns back up.

Tiger, Or sceptical Brits worrying that the gold price isn’t real, and looking forward to reducing profits next year. The prof will be when the S&P turns back up and whether gold holds or rises or fallls straight back down, sadly UK gold mine investors are suggesting the latter

Not unexplained imho
When markets fall so do pe’s so miners have to make a bit more profit to maintain their price
Also share price looks forward and worry with miners is if this is as expected this is a stock market correction gold could turn back when markets turn up
So the jury is out and miners need another jump in gold to get going again, beyond 1240, all imho

The big questions for me remain
As stocks tumble will gold shares be hit by the falling market as in 2009 or this time become the alternative? We still cannot see but gold shares have not tumbled yet with the market nor risen much.
Will gold break up through 1240 in which case it could have reversed and be on the way up or is this just to catch us out in the continuing bear
When market turns back up for another go at the bull, which I think will happen, will gold hold on or fall back,
Will Nov 1 production show returning toward normal or be bnothr warning.
This is a pivotal time