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yes, sadly;
a. the quarter 3 results were not back to normal but worse than expected
b. the price of gold fell and cel's fall is not that much worse than peers this year so actually overall not that much penalised for the lousy results which if they continued would seriously affect profit.
We just have to hope quarter 4 is better
and gold dent fall back again
but price about fair now imho

I am sure it will, the much bigger questions remain
A. Has gold really turned
B. Will mining shares pe’s fall alongside a falling market, in 2008/9 investors sold miners to help pay for other losses, or this time will miners rise as others fall - so far looking hopeful
C. Is this just a Dow S&P correction and will godl and miners turn back down when other shares go up

My view remains as it has for a year that there would be a big gold and miner shake out before we take out godl at 1400 and more. Have we seen that shakeout or is there one more horrid fall to come?

As you know I reduced my cey holding on the way down but have been buying back in the 90’s and even again this morning at 101, now back to 70% of my original holding, 36% of my portfolio in gold miners which feels about right, tho not if they tumble again

Dear Oil, No, as someone else pointed out this week cey is already becoming a bit of a trading share and anything but parked,... up around 20% already this month!

Conversely these are the least geared gold mines so will rise least if gold goes up. The most geared are the mines with break even at or above the current price. Even mines with aisc $100 below current gold price will double real profit if gold rises by $ but of course their profit will be wiped out if gold falls $100? Centamin is a mid cost miner, profit disappears around $250 below current gold price and doubles with gold around $1450. All if I have my sums right of course but whatever low cost mines are good with falling gold, but not the best to be in if gold is rising.

Thanks Smith, as quite a large holder that is much how I see it. Where do you see the share price going till there’s some proof that all these deals can start generating decent profits ie a bit less talk and hype and some more profitable accounts. Is it a question of how much investors believe, which would explain the sometimes over strong words between believers and non believers here? I am holding, but more in hope than actual figures.....

The miners have a horrible way of presaging or even predicting gold falls and rises, but at the moment seem to have recovered around 15% from the bottom with gold's 5% rise, about what I would expect 3:1 so not yet telling me anything about future direction which is up for grabs. I am back to 66% of the quantity of mining shares I had a year ago which feels enough for now with the future so unclear. On another note nice to see Hoc results recognised today, albeit a day after they came out

me too, so impressed by lack of gold fall I actually bought a tiny bit more

Well Trump tweeted interest rates were rising too fast which has been great for gold the last couple of weeks. Now Jay Powell has said they may have to rise even faster and further so I expect we have seen the current bounce in gold. I sadly think gold's big fall from 1360 is probably not over, I think 1st Nov results CEY may not be any worse than already built in, but price of CEY is almost entirely at mercy of the expectation for gold.
Since gold tried 1360 again early in the year I have expected a big pull back to sjhake us all off before gold marches stronglyup, I still think it probably has not been big enough to frighten enough of us out.
I am hanging onto half my CEY now, many of which I sold in May after the warning and bought back a couple of weeks ago in lower 90's, because when gold bounces in may go like a rocket with no time to get on, a foretaste of which we saw last week, but I think it will be 2019 or 2020 before it does.
Just my opinion and of course gold could go any direction but down looking likelier as it faces soaring interest rates and dollar imho

Or Smith has an honest opinion that the shares will fall further, as valid as they will rise when no one know what profits may come when

Tiger you are wise, which means I agree with you. I have expected gold, since the rally back to try 1360 again early this year, to plunge and try to throw us off before a big rise. I too do not think this is the end of the plunge nor start of the big rise, as I don’t believe the Dow S&P & US economy are about to tank yet, we are seeing a short correction which is not yet through, but then onward and upward.
However we can see how electric the moves in the miners will be when gold takes off and I stay partly in as it will be hard to climb back on quickly enough. I have preferred Cey for similar reasons to you, I bought Hoc for sentimental reasons as they are distant cousins I have never met. Over 5 years the two shares have done similarly, however this year it is Cey that has been pushing out the warnings, reducing production and increasing costs, so I think it is currently the better buy, why I have been stocking back up at sale prices.
Also disappointing that not a better reaction to Hoc’s good figures today.
Thanks as ever Tiger. S

Likewise. I have a varying mix of Hoc and Cey moving between them mostly for cgt reasons. Currently more Hoc as sold a bit of both as gold fell, but also many Cey after profit warning, but have been rebuying Cey over last two weeks, I am now back up to two thirds of the gold shares I had before. Which do you prefer?

I am particular pleased by aisc reduction despite rising oil, as aisc as well as gold price has been a worry. Output now higher than Centamin, and forward nearly level, though costs still a bit higher, ,arket cap a quarter lower

sorry Smith see you are back in, even better, and will be further in at 70, now I am hopeful

Dear Smith, I am relieved you are will be back in at only 10% lower, as it gives me some comfort, I was meaning to ask what you thought price would do as you seem pretty good on Opti,can you elaborate? I am in rather big time, and Skin, but have become increasingly worried that Opti seems to issue far more RNS's than most, and seems to try to talk the shares up, rather than let cashflow and profits do the work and wait for them and just give info of true significance. It is rather the opposite of another share we are both in CEY, which gives ftoo little info and then surprises, recently on the downside. But with Opti I am not surprised that more and more RNS's without major significance sound a little of desperation. Only my worries

It is wopping: "In accordance with the terms of the Concession Agreement, EMRA is entitled to share 50 percent of the Sukari mine’s net production surplus."

Prof as ever you are of course quite right, also Somnamna that profit warnings often come in threes, however l am not sure whether the reduced dividend (which is certain)will count as a third warning or if we need a third profit warning. I have naughtily bought a few more and am up to 64% of my original holding and now have to promise myself I will leave it here, as gold could as easily fall as rise, feels good this week but what when Dow and S&P recover because I think this is only a correction for them. Still even more upset to eb out if it rises than in if it falls, silly me!

very smart, now what next?

Yes it is normal. From memory cey broke through 100 in spring 2016 with both the shares and gold about the price they are now (tho before profit warnings etc) so we are doing well especially considering huge profit share as well, imho. So now depends on getting production back which will happen but far more on price of gold on which this is a geared play, around 3 to 1

Prof. Lovely to hear from you. I always work on a roughly 3 times gearing for price of cey v gold. So gold is up 1% means cey profits up around 3% (v ballpark) and thus share likewise up 3%. So about right today and still at about fair value imho

I rather rashly bought back a chunk that I sold a couple of week ago at 104 last week in the lower 90’s. This morn I bought back a second chunk I had sold at 114. But there are still the chunks I sold higher so now I have a bit over half what I did. My view is the S&p, Dow etc correction has a bit further to go so gold should bounce more, hence my last week’s buying as I considered cey fair price with gold at 1200, but worth more if it rises ie around 90 at 1180 96 at 1200 102 at 1225 but of course the price is also expectation. However once this correction is over will gold fall back or has it turned. For me the biggest influence is real interest rate expectations, so it was Trump’s strong words last week that got me back in plus Amazon wage rises etc presaging inflation. So now will interest rate rises slow a little, good for gold, and inflations rise faster, same. Probably not but the market thinks gold is hopeful this week till it doesn’t. Future as clear as mud but I can’t bear to miss out even if I lose again. Sad?