Member Info for Sotolo

Like so many on this site how charming you are, I quite agree about most members here and the so often informative helpful and tolerant discussion. The best board. Well now down before up......

Thanks dealts. I accidentally bought more Centamin on Friday afternoon, part of my portfolio is with a new broker Sharecentre and I was dealing for the first time trying to get a price, but the amount was too large for one, so I pressed the button that I thought would seek a quote again but it set the dealers buying them, and my call was too late to stop them after the endless menus and security . Worst was not intending to buy I was still on 1% commission. However actually now so many including DJRyan are saying Cey will fall further I am wondering whether my purchase may turn out judicious, at least I got them back a fair bit cheaper than I sold then, and I was looking for a buy price as too many hate Cey now. Uncertain and I have always been interested in the contra-indicators on these boards. As said before next profits and dividend will be horrible but depending on gold price further out might pick up. I know a large 'depending on', but I feel less gloomy (which may be a contra indicator in itself)

Yes I have been saying so, next year dividend should be heavily down, that's the problem fo the share price

highanddry, expect you are feeling rather less stupid about not having bought now, as said you should be able to buy at 87p again and lower if gold falls (I am not a deramper and down £30k on cey today, just a realist looking at cey forward profits). I would remember May profit warning when many jumped in when cey had fallen 15% from 160 only for it to fall 40%.

I personally don't think a takeover/merger is imminent, and I don't think production is artificially reduced to aid this
Although Randgold has political risk it would be hard to countenance buying Cey until the court case is resolved.
I hope the current fall is done as next year as said looking much better production wise, if management are right, tho don't they say profit warnings come in threes, so fair value I think around 100 with gold at 1200 ....excluding likelihood gold may fall - however if it was to turn up so would cey from here. Ah is that a pig I just saw passing the window...

Actually although this quarter's production down around 27% year on year, going forward is not looking so bad, if predictions are right this time, Q4 is expected to be 145000 ouches which is half way between 2016 and 2017 production. tho of course lower gold and higher costs. This years profits will be hard hit, but if gold stays up I see a recovery, sadly however think it won't as frequently said. Plus the impact of high oil on aisc is heavy. So I still maintain the 90's are where cey should be now

Thanks Tiger! And congrats again to you on selling before the fall.
My view is fair value is a combination of how many ounces we produce, what it costs to get each ounce out of the ground and how much we sell it for. We know production is 27% down year on year, but next year will improve. Do we know how bad the aisc is? Most important of all however is the price of gold. If gold was to stay at 1200 I think you are in the right ballpark, I go 100-110, but share prices look forward and it seems likelier that gold will break out down as USA booms and rates rise. So gold at $1200 but gold price likelier to fall, I still put fair price at 90p as I have since May. I still think we will test the 87 low. But of course hope not.

There's load of chat here on everything form Tesco shopping to Trout fishing but does anyone own Glencore shares?
If so can they help me and answer my question fo last week, how Glencore dividends are treated for tax inc last year and year before?

I have recently had 2 dividends paid by barclays smart investor first as dividends, then recovered and repaid as capital repayment
A. And why 2 dividends now? The second is 2.78 times the other, but the first could be recovering and repaying the April divi which was 2.5 times smaller but with exchange rate differences might explain it?
B. Do you pay dividend tax even though a capital repayment? Or subtract from your purchase price and so pay cgt on it when selling
C. Has it been the same for years so also should last year's dividend and the year before be treated the same?
Thank you

The dividends in the past have been brilliant, as the company doesn't know what to do with its spare cash so gives most of the profits to us (which is better than most gold miners who poured their cash into new holes in the ground destroying value as Marmot points out) although taxed if shares not in isa at over 30%. And great post from Marmot also about Cey cash and costs.
HOWEVER at current gold price the dividend is likely to be considerably down, with considerably lower profits and if gold hasn't turned but only paused, so temporarily cheering sentimentst about gold miners, and soon falls further, which is possible you may be able to buy at lower price again. Hope not! But the point is the fundamentals are very dependent on what our company can sell its gold for, and many like me remain worried.

I think that the chart is abysmal because people keep selling as such good opportunities elsewhere with dow and s&p making more highs month by month, and interest rates rising, as a result etf's have a lot less in than they had, and gold chart is in a long term bear, the inverse of stocks. imho. I have sold more because I think economics say price will fall, others have too. each time gold gets in a range as in the last few weeks it then breaks down as people like me take advantage of any rise to get out. Sometime gold will revers but I think it may try the 2015/16 low first

I think that the chart is abysmal because people keep selling as such good opportunities elsewhere with dow and s&p making more highs month by month, and interest rates rising, as a result etf's have a lot less in than they had, and gold chart is in a long term bear, the inverse of stocks. imho. I have sold more because I think economics say price will fall, others have too. each time gold gets in a range as in the last few weeks it then breaks down as people like me take advantage of any rise to get out. Sometime gold will revers but I think it may try the 2015/16 low first

Can anyone tell me how to declare the Glencore dividends for UK tax as a normal uk resident tax payer
I have just had 2 dividends paid by barclays smart investor first as dividends, then recovered and repaid as capital repayment
And why 2 dividends now? The second is 2.78 times the other, but the first could be recovering and repaying the April divi which was 2.5 times smaller but with exchange rate differences might explain it
Do you pay dividend tax even though a capital repayment
Or subtract from your purchase price and so pay cgt on it when selling
Has it been the same for years so also should last year's dividend and the year before be treated the same?
Thank you

Tibbs thanks for a great explanation.
On another note, I think it was DJRyan saying the trend is your friend. Quite so but as a long term shareholder which way is the cey trend going now? Are we in a medium term bear, in which we have just seen a couple of weeks’ bounce, which I am inclined to, or have we seen a bottom a couple of weeks ago and is the trend now up as many think?
Finally I am about $17 out on my gold prediction of a month ago, but closer than Tibbs thinking gold soaring on the back of AM. Looking a month ahead I will put my neck out again and say $1170, and by Christmas $1140, but let’s hope I am quite wrong and gold has now turned and soars, but let’s hope I am not quite wrong and gold doesn’t tumble.

I'm not sure who you were writing to Mizolgit but I am a very long term holder too, the shares I sold today I bought at 56p. However maybe we should be more tolerant overall of short term traders too, they should only provide liquidity and noise, the price long term, which matters to us, will be determined by the company's profit and dividends in the long run. Today's are the first I've sold since reacting to the profit warning, and gold price falling through the 200 day, and the 50 day cutting below the 200 day a few months ago. Today was because I am just worried about the gold price now, and the bounce seemed an opportunity even if I may be a bit early, or quite wrong. I am still 25% in miners and remain extremely keen gold might rise, just worry it might be a couple of years and fall more first.

So was that you in 1985, you are cool Ms or Mr Picket! And you got me selling today, been waiting since 86 (cey price not the year) and just as that was too many days down this has been too many up imho, a great out (I hope)!

You are right, and for once smart investors problems have saved me money
I sold the rest in main account at 100.7, tho I still have some in another account, if they rise well at least I got out at a profit and if they fall I will buy them back

Well I tried to sell at 99p, but needled to say the absolutely useless Barclays smart investor was down, and still is 90mins later. Lucky I sold my shares in Barclays itself a while ago, used to be a great company but how could they have made their platform so much worse. Means you can have no faith in their management.
Now I really need to move from them as lose me so much money, especially now not able to trade and settle later in the day. But problem of shares being in limbo for months.

Very interesting article, thanks for posting, and pretty much what I have been saying and thinking. It is making me think of selling more now we have come back near 100. Gold might bounce a little more but my gut which could of course be wrong, based on what is happening in the economy, says gold has a lot further to fall before it sores.
I also don’t understand why so many on this board say those who think gold will fall must be talking their short book or trying to get in lower, and those who say it will rise are honest. There are many more pundits who talk gold up than down,, most of whom sell it, but the positive talk doesn’t seem to have any effect on it, so I don’t see why the occasional person saying it will fall should either.

Not sure, was that a double top we saw day before yesterday?
Or will it turn back up and break through the high?

I think you may be a bit premature, and likely to lose money though eventually make it back and more. Cey is only a good price if gold holds up or rises, in sterling (which counts) gold has been steadily falling over the last month and now down to around £912