Member Info for Sotolo

Do you mean RBC who raised from £2 to £2.55? The latest I see on the broker ratings?

Tiger, as ever my thoughts too, you wrote "For my money, gold will dip over the next few days ahead of the Fed meeting, and then, if the noises coming from the Fed are appropriately dovish, it will rise quite strongly afterwards. All in all, I'm not liking the look of the world economy at the moment (let alone our own)!"
I would add that on the day (this weds) the knee jerk reaction to what the fed says is often the reverse of what you expect, as traders get out of position they have built for it - buy the news sell the rumour - but fundamentals quickly assert themselves as ever.
So I to am now very over invested in gold miners, back to 50% of my portfolio, in the hope that 2019 repeats 2016.
However gold price depends so much on sentiment, fashion and belief, as the proportion of industrial and jewellery use is relatively small, and the American stock bull may have another leg up. Plus if it tumbles further shareholders may need to liquidate other positions inc gold. It all depends on the story which is yet to turn, however it is nicely contrarian owning a sector so out fo fashion
One day...... hopefully while we are all still alive.....

Yes indeed, the democrats have historically been the racist southerners, aftter the civil war they gained power throughout the south, gerrymandering away black votes, and were responsible for the myriad Jim Crow laws. It is why the south was always democrat till the bravery of Lyndon Johnson, in desegregation.

Absolutely so
But I think after this rise is out of the way
Unless Jay Powell sounds more hawkish about next year’s rises, which currently seems unlikely, then with a bit of luck we will have a repeat of what followed after Dec 2015 and dec 2017 raye rises, with gold going up as the news is already built in

I think ‘if fed raises interest rate again as expected’ is expected as you say, so already in the price, and unless Jay Powell sounds more bullish than usual on next year’s rises, I think gold and cey may actually go up after the rise, as after previous rises, having got it out of the way, which happened after the first of this series of rises in Dec 2015 & again in Dec 2017. Here’s hoping...

In sterling gold is getting near it’s 2018 high

Yes Dazah, and given the sharp profit and dividends drop coming in next years figures price seems around right. But why I wonder do more want to sell than buy this week with this old news, gold rising lately and doing esp well in sterling, and oil costs falling?
Is there something we don’t know or are investors just worried by decimated profits and increased EMRA share of the take? While we look further and see recovery?
I don’t see how mm’s can affect the price long term or they would lose loads by under pricing and all of us buying on the cheap, then having to buy back for more.

Share price is not gold price now but reflects expectation of share price (and profit) one week hence to a year hence, and many are worried about the price of gold, costs and tumbling profit and dividends. May they be wrong....

Isn’t it great, The summer Centamin share sale continues with a Black Friday special and I have been able to get back to my original 400k with 60%off. But how do the market makers do it? They must get those shares I buy from somewhere so either they are selling their own at too low a price and will have to buy them back for more, yippee, or others are selling expecting the cey price to fall further and there are more of them than buyers like me who think cey is now fair value so worth having? And the price is falling. Or sellers just cashing in to pay for margins on tumbling other shares. Which seems more likely, mm’s intentionally giving me a bargain and losing money, or sellers?

I am intrigued where you are putting your funds from selling, as better than Cenatmin?

Hiya Market, yes I miss the likes of Prof and Uncertain but there are many great posters here still like Tiger and you, but what I wonder is why do you still hold the shares if you thithink they will never make 135 again? I agree about Sukari and the bank balance, and the dividend will either be down or uncovered, but I hold as I think that when this economic cycle turns and interest rates fall, and it is already long in the tooth, gold will turn back up, and cey is almost entirely a geared play on gold, with a small punt on African exploration (not too much) and a small worry on the court case, which as someone posted this week the government is doing too well out of cey for it to be likely to happen, but still a good thing to have dangling. Cey may fall back to my purchase price in the 50’s if gold continues its journey down, which is still not broken, however I want to be there if and when gold turns back up. But why do people on this board who think the company is useless continue to hold the share is beyond me? It well may be but then it is liquid and easy to sell, and put your money in another miner as Joseph, or hang on for the bucking bronco gold ride.

well conventional economic wisdom says gold should fall if real interest rid because of the oppotunity cost of holding it, and vice versa, today, Jerome Powell is a bit less hawkish on interest rates, which means gold should rise and it does.
Gold is being held down by economic news of rising interest rates and strong dollar, to stop a booming US economy overheating. Gold classically falls at this point in the cycle, but as soon as real interest rates start to fall gold, and sop our beloved key, should rise. and seems to be what it is doing and worrying about imho

If helpful this is from the 1sr nov quarter 3 results saying the production situation in Sukarno is resolving and going forward looks good: a month earlier, in Sept preliminary results, the company was still worried “operational improvements have taken longer than planned to materialise;” but the Nov results said “September was a significant improvement on July and August, producing 48,511 ounces, driven by good underground grades and reduction in stope dilution; Underground operational improvements have taken longer than planned to materialise and are expected to continue to flow through in Q4;”. The problems seem to be passing, confirmed by others posts on ounces shipped, now we are at the vagaries of the gold price, as shown today

It depends a lot on the gold price, which is looking quite positive just now in which case cey should continue to climb back. However the big variable is what happens to gold when the correction in US stocks ends and general shares rise again and also particularly what Jay Powell says at the December Fed meeting and whether Fed rates will continue to rise as expected, holding gold back
However I have rebuilt my gold shares from half what they were to 90% taking advantage of this autumn's downturn. Here's hoping the new year will bring a surge as in 2017 2017 etc

Well they have nearly double my capital since I came in in early 2016, with the gold price only up a bit over $100. Plus the dividends.

Dear Mr Tibbs
How the market moves day by day doesn’t bother me, I believe the longer the time the more the market will deliver a price that balances buyers and sellers. I agree the profit warning so soon after promising good production was hopeless and the situation took longer to resolve than expected, I worry without Josef, but overall I hope and believe that this year’s mechanical problems, resulting partly from our management trying to save money, are over and production will recover next year. That is why I stay in. I think management have paid me some great dividends, rather than pouring money into worthless exploration that has been the bane of rivals, and manages the political situation, laws and politics that Acacia fell foul of and even Randgold has found difficult. However if you believe the gold price is all a conspiracy for holding it down, and our management are so inept, why do you continue to hold the share? You may be right but if so you should already have sold or be selling now. I don’t agree so remain a holder

Great that this board encompasses different views, and hopefully all contributors influence each other a bit.

Now let’s just hope gold doesn’t retest it’s Xmas 2015 lows, and that the seven year old gold bear market doesn’t have too many more years to run.

All best Tibbs and keep posting, it is the differing views that are so helpful and make this board special

I am neither attacking nor defending the management, just saying the share price was at this point a couple of years ago with gold around 1200, on the way up, and profit share is higher now so to me the share price has now discounted the mechanical failures of last spring and moved beyond it expecting recovering production and is a function of the price of gold, which is sadly falling as there are more attractive places for money with rising interest rates and US shares expected to resume their heady climb. Other gold shares have been doing the same, without mechanical problems. Investors may of course be wrong but as long as they continue to shun gold I expect Centamin will fall more, as our profits are expected to be lower even with fully recovered output, and if gold turns up then so will Cey. So share price pretty much function of gold price with output recovering to where it was and remaining pretty stable. Just imho.

Sadly I think it’s not in the doldrums but falling again, and not due to management but the falling price of gold being back on again, after the October respite, which is hitting some other miners even harder. I don’t see cey turning until the gold piece does and that could be a while

Recess AM saying gold about to soar and it then tumbling is sadly not out of balance but quite as normal, for years it seems to me AM has said gold is about to soar as it has fallen, one day hopefully he has to be right unless gold continues falling for decades. He is like the stock permabears but a perambull bless him, just a shame he believes in all sorts of conspiracy theories that don’t result in the moves he predicts, rather than analysing a market of buyers and sellers worried by rising interest rates and dollar etc imho

I’d say our share price is fair value, with lower profits, lower gold price and prospect of it even lower, and the profit share has kicked in heavily since our price was 180. A return to good profit will help a bit, rising gold price would help a lot, and what we really need; however the court case is something held ove cey’s head and keeps the company in line, I think our board are wise not to antagonise the government and leave it as it is, and as far as I am concerned the dividends for which I long term hold this share remain the same despite it - though will be lower for the other above reasons which also make the lower share price.