Member Info for Sotolo

Lovely to see you Tiger. I think there is nothing unexpected in these results, and 2019 forecast of lower production and higher aisc may have a lot to do with closing Arcata which is actually good, so hopefully onward and upward for us with the silver price. I am hanging on along with cey, having tunrned bullish in the autumn (and happily got it right for once... so far) loading up again far too much, but gosh it has been a long few years waiting for take off, and turns out right (or lucky) to get out last summer when looked so uncertain, Let’s hope we finally crash up through 1365 this time, that has proved such a barrier.
As regards your other question on sterling and UK shares they seem pretty good value to me, having taken account of the brexit hit with a far lower cape than other markets, and sterling already feels low when you are abroad on holiday as I now am, so it might even bounce imho. However I am 65% in miners (maybe very foolish) and 25% in Japan so barely exposed to UK any more, though miners would come back if sterling soared other things being equal, which I hope they are not!
What does anyone else think of the results?
All best and thanks

Yes
Mizolgit & Marmot, I will go away, you lot did the same to Tibbs a while ago and you have done it before to me and others. Happily Tobbs returned after a while.
Yes I was very scared after the first profit warning last May, and increasingly through the summer so as I made clear in my posts I sold a hunk in the 130's more in the 120's and 110's, in the summer and early autumn, so £250k, it did look bleak for gold, but in the autumn I engaged in a lot of useful discussion with DJ Ryan and others, about whether gold and cey were maybe finding a bottom, with cey in the 90's, and about whether cey was turning, and we both took the plunge back in, so I bought all I had sold and a few more back in the 90's and lower 100's. I feel happy with that course of action, as I was not prepared to lose more as it was falling, it is my pension. It could have gone either way last autumn so selling half was for me sensible insurance. And it did continue down and I got back lower, although that wasn't the point.
Now I feel optimistic so as Marmot advises please do the opposite and sell,
Unlike your wise views mine are always imho, which I always say and as you now wish me to add
1) this is for entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice.
2) my forecasting is as bad as the Federal Reserve
3) seriously consider doing the opposite of whatever I recommend

Finally Marmot from Collins dictionary:
"If you say that someone has chutzpah, you mean that you admire the fact that they are not afraid or embarrassed to do or say things that shock, surprise, or annoy other people."

Well I seem to have done that which is a shame for the tolerance of this board and its openness to contrary ideas.
Now I will go away but please understand I never ramp or deramp but just say how I am feeling, which is sometimes that prices with fall as last May when I thought from 160 to 90's but underestimated it, which annoys you if you only like those who talk the market up, I do think some of you are rather mean bullies that I remember from school, when you have insulted others off this board for differing views, while those like Tibbs Prof Tiger, Uncertain and many more are so useful to talk to whether I agree or not, and I shall miss.

A. Gold is still £12 an ounce cheaper than early Jan, and sterling counts for us (and Uncertains dipolgog or whatever be called his currency basket)
B. Shares don’t usually rise in linear fashion, but shoot up, get a bit ahead of themselves, people take profit then off again. So as Prof point out this rose by a third so apt that takes a pause. It will get going again. It is interesting to compare cey to Hoc over a few years, and over any longer period they catch up with each other, despite diverging for. A few months on profit warnings etc. So as Prof says still not a bad buy now, but unlike his Advice, I would hang on. I got heavily back in in the 90’s ( along with DJ Ryan, where’s he) back to £500k, and am hoping to not be tempted out but sticking with it for next couple of years as I see gold breaking its all time high, and cey doing the same and more, imho and dreams

I think this is because production is predicted to fall 13% from 526k oz to 457k oz this year. However this is nothing new and is from taking Arcata out of the picture, which is loss making at these prices, a decision on closing it will take place in Feb, and depends if Hoc see silver rising quickly. It is profits not production that matter, and they should even be helped. Imho

I think Brexit turmoil is not that huge for the world, and already baked in the price. I still expect gold, having failed to pierce 1300 a couple of times, will pull back a bit. However if the pound were to tumble again on the thought of crashing out, then cey would rise as foreign, as it didafter the brexit vote

More sellers than buyers today, in expectation of gold coming back a bit, as I suggested last week. Then I thought Cey might pull back to 110 as gold failed to pierce 1300, and so came back a bit. Nothing has changed. For traders 120 was a good out, but for long term holders like most of us , it is just noise

I think you have your answer in 20 20 20
Cey doesn’t predict 20% rise in production
Cey doesn’t predict 20% fall in aisc
Cey doesn’t predict 20% increase in reserves
Plus Cey has the court case preventing a takeover
Share prices look forward
I thought Cey was fairly valued around a pound with gold in the lower 1200’s
I think Cey is fairly valued now with the current gold price
Gold is finding it very hard to break through 1300, if it doesn’t shortly it is likely to retreat a bit taking the cey price back to 110 or further
So let’s hope very much that it manages soon as it is not production, aisc etc that will save us as they are readily static, but the gold price. Imho

Tiger, I think Dotlink has a point, and gold at least is looking a bit overbought. It has had a couple of goes at 1300 and failed so is, I think, likelier to come back a bit than rise just now, silver and HOC will follow down. The big question is whether, as shares become more attractive and the bull gets going again, gold can turn back up and breach 1300 and then 1365 or do we have to wait another round, which may be likelier and a few months?

Hello Tiger, I have been asking for a year what will happen to gold miners when the stockmarkets tumble and gold rises; now with the overall market down 20%, PE’s have thus o well fallen 20%, so shares need to either fall or make higher profits to match the market, therefore gold rises needs to be more significant than the market fall.
However other goldies are marginally winning the battle so why not Hoc. Well Silver hasn’t shot up yet (and although Hoc is now big in Gold the market thinks of it as silver). But more worrying, is there something we don’t know about holding back the price?? What do you think?
I have been buying back in (along with Cey, which has risen but the had been slammed for profit warning) and am now up from 50% of what I had to 95%, I am tempted to buy the last 5% tomorrow morn but tha will mean selling £50k of something that has fallen, and mean I am more than half in pm miners?

Market open Monday 8-1230, then thur and fri, fairly illiquid so can get interesting moves. Hope this is Xmas 2015 repeating

Not for hoc, which should rise now

As said we all know as gold doing exactly as expected for one just now, goody, now for 200 day, 1270 resistance and the 50 day average going through 200 all of which seem possible in first quarter 2019. So...I think....
CENTAMIN SALE ENDING, following 25% off in summer/Oct, 20% off in nov and 10% off recently this year’s cey shar sale is almost over

So far the gold price has moved just as predicted a couple of days ago, and earlier to Tiger, ie an immediate reaction down before turning up. I feel very excited by this and now at the potential for a repeat of Dec 2015 which is when I got into Centamin, and why I am fully back in now. In real terms interest rates are predicted to top out at least 25% lower than the Fed predicted before, at decently under 1%. Imho this is good for gold going into 2019 and could get better
Our share price may go down a bit today but could be the last time to get in at the Centamin sales. The share has been selling with money off for months, now gold is rising so should it. Let’s just hope I’m right and there isn’t another tumble. The 200 day gold average is near but I am waiting for the 50 day to cross the 200 day hopefully in Jan or Feb to signal we are properly off, if we now are..

It is not this rise but the news on the direction of rises and the economy next year, the upside is fewer rate rises, the downside partly because inflation is now expected to be lower, overal I think it is I think good for gold, but traders are profit taking as expected. IMHO

So the instant fall as predicted yesterday but will the other half happen and it turn up?

interest rates going up is already in the price, so traders are positioning on whether Jay Powell is likely to be more hawkish or dovish on future interest rate trajectory. The dollar says a bit more dovish, hope it’s right.

Where? 3 days later they predicted 514000 gold equivalent ounces for 2019 which is not remotely doubling?

Also you still haven’t posted a link to the analyst downgrade you mentioned

Many thanks for both

FT this evening on expected interest rises:
“So we have a crucial and perhaps defining day looming tomorrow,”
“It is unlikely that the Fed drastically changes the dot plot for 2019, raising the prospect of a negative market reaction.”

That includes gold which is hugely affected by the prospect for interest rates, and the market has recently reduced its expectation from three to one rise next year, leading to the recent gold and cey rally, but as FT suggests this may not be what Jay Powell predicts.

Every word of his speech will be parsed, I think gold may instantly fall but will hopefully overall pick up, but it is certainly going to be a big and worrying Weds eve and Thursday for us, setting the course for 2019....

It is usually just over an hour after the market closes here, so we will find out what cey does on Thursday. Gold has been a bit excited in anticipation but that is a little worrying as if the minutes are as tough as last time gold will fall, the gold price is expecting an interest rise this time, which will come, but a softening on the news of rises next year, which if it happens will help us up. A lot hangs on tomorrow around 545,pm and remember the instant reaction may be opposite to the real one. I would say a very important day for us.

My trading strategy is don’t trade, as whatever rules you follow it will catch you out, rather look to the long term - many of us hold as we see this rising above the previous top, hopefully while we are still alive; we occasionally get out if gold looks like it is going to have a long weak period, or there is some bad news, and back again months later, or as some here even years later.