Member Info for Sotolo

Yes Mark Bristow would do a brilliant job and would be happy to hold Barrick not Endeavour. Well done you buying at 115. If production is as Siko says it is worth at least that without any bid...as long as gold doesn’t tumble....

Question is would Mark Bristow want to deal with EMRA,50% profit share and cost case, particularly if Kees Decker was right about Centamin being severely overvalued, unless Kees has changed his mind, looking forward to Tibbs link Of course I hope so, that Mark thinks Cey undervalued and wants us!

Mr T. Two bits of very good news then. First Siko on production for the final quarter. . Second your post this morning: a year ago Kees Dexker said with the share price at 100, “It is safe to conclude, despite all uncertainties associated with the cash flow forecasts, that Centamin is currently severely overvalued.” Where is he now saying it is worth more?

Tibbs my only post on this, which is utterly thrilling, is that this is a hold at 128p, as hopefully it will go higher, unless it falls back or nothing materialises. So well done prof etc getting back in around 116. you keep accusing me of doom and gloom, but the view the share price would fall after profit warnings seemed reasonable. I turned from doom or gloom earlier in the year, as the gold price began to rise, as written in other posts this outdoes any production fall three times, and it menat that I wasn’t too bothered by the last warning thinking it took the shares into bargain territory, hence my owning far too many. Bit rude of you to say I ‘claim’ to hold too many. Why should I, what is the point? Ieverything is a conspiracy theory or a lie how do you trust anyone?
30% of my savings are in Cey, 30% in Hoc and Fres which haven’t been great. So hoping this bid works out, that Endeavour come back with more and a bidding war ensues. There’s optimism for you Tibbs

.... or both.
All the best and good luck

Hope you are right about 160/170 but the market doesn’t seem to think so yet. The current price is around the endeavour suggestion with not much premium for a bid from them, or someone else. A hold for now, and hope this turns into something more and doesn’t go away.

Of course on the bright side of these awful figures two of the three mines, Pallancata and San Jose now have really high aisc’s averaging about $1150 (gold equivalent) so only making $300 an ounce profit, a 10% fall in gold would halve that, while a 10% rise would put it up 50% so they are very highly geared as a result of the high aisc, if you like that sort of thing. Of course the worrying thing is that in much of the last decade these mines would have been losing money with these aisc’s. Silver lining is if can’t get profits out of Argentina (San Jose) won’t be a bad time not to make any or make far less....and what a relief we have Immaculada

Why didn’t you think the update was that bad? The production will be down which isn’t great, but more importantly the aisc Is shocking to me, partly as a result of the lower production it is up dramatically so need gold price $100 higher to make same profit as before announcement; in theory if gold rises $100 or silver $1.20 our share price should be back where it was, but for now my shares have been fairly whopped 10%.
Also ceo Bustamante,s deals in last two years have only been ‘transfers from’ not sells?

Phil and Lynne, much appreciated and love the name. And prof, I too am hopeful of gold in 2020, let’s hope we are finally right, I am still fully invested unlike wise you. I love your name too and imagine a wise old professor in a book lined room behind a desk strewn with papers, wearing a corduroy jacket, don’t disabuse me.

I agree the fall was way overdone, as output fall far less significant than gold price. However gold continued down and Cey share price has held thus in effect making up that lost ground. Gold is down 10% in sterling since 30th aug, so you would expect Cey’s sterling profit and hence sterling share price to be down 30%., just because of this without factoring in any fall for lower production. Cey was 145 on 30 aug, it should be t 102 so it has actually been coming back. The fall is now I think almost entirely because of gold and if gold recovers it should snap up.
Then we may overshoot down agin on next quarter results of annual output and aisc, and if gold now falls from here we should see 3 times the percentage drop from that.

Prof, I am worried like you, on three scores:
Van E extra 1% is I think only because their etf’s need it as more money has been put in, but this is a lagging indicator
Cey will be pushed to make 490k ounces, however even if they are 25k short only dents profits by 5%, tho of course short term the share will overreact down, but not a big deal for us long term holder
Far more (and most) important is the price of gold, particularly in sterling, which is what counts most for us for the sterling profit. This is decidedly worrying, still looks like we should make towards £100k profit, but a 12% fall in gold that we have recently seen equals 36% fall in profit and so 36% fall in share price that we haven’t quite yet seen. So any more fall in gold, which seems quite possible into Xmas, if the 2 month fall continues, is far our biggest worry. So I am not at all sanguine short term but petrified....as still very heavily in Cey ... remain ever hopeful for next year

Gold has been range bound for a while but keeps pushing at the bottom end, I fear it will break down not up, which is deeply disappointing for us, as the interest rate falls seem over, bond rates are rising, and it is real interest rates that seem to have the biggest affect on gold price as they change the opportunity cost of holding it, oh dear just as other UK shares look to be on the rise

Lovely to see you TornadoT. Miners are down about 17% on your chart, while Cey has fallen rather more at 26% I think, because of the lower production. Also it had risen faster, the miners on your chart rose by 40% but CEY by more than double that. So far your chart could maybe just about be a retrenchment of a price that had risen too fast and will go on up again, but if it falls much further it is getting worrying...what do you think TornadoT, you say it is possible for the current downtrend to continue which is certainly true, but do you thinks the odds are greater than even that it will?

Tibbs I think you misunderstand me
a. I do not want more shares, I have made very clear I already have a large proportion of my savings in Cey, and I certainly don't want the price to fall, or to buy any more at a lower price, I have no idea where you get that from???
b. I don't think on expected profit so fundamentals the price should be lower. However I don't think my post or others here could possibly affect the price, this is not a tiny aim stock, though if they did my post would push the price upwards.
c. As all I said is that I am encouraged (ie bullish) to see others here saying they have given up and sold as it means fewer sellers are left, so more encouraging for the price.
Sorry if I was ambiguous but hope that is clear and meets your approval, all the best

Phil and Lynne,
Worth remembering that it is not just revenue but three other things, the first you mention is the $200 rise in costs (we are no longer a low cost mine); this equals $200 rise in gold price, so a gold price of $1260 then is $1460 now for the same profit. Then we have profit share which has kicked in, and has since risen 20% from 40% to 50% so that is another $50 taking us to $1510 to be level with back then. Then production is down 15% ,so all in all price seems fair now at. PE of 13, till we see how gold price does, whether production recovers and with it costs fall back a bit again. However I am very encouraged by all the sellers on this board, as on e all the negative Centamin holders have sold we should get motoring when any of the above happen....

Phil and Lynne,
Worth remembering that it is not just revenue but Tyree other things, the first you mention is the $200 rise in costs (we are no longer a low cost mine); this equals $200 rise in gold price, so a gold price of $1260 then is $1460 now for the same profit. Then we have profit share which has kicked in, and has risen 20% from 40% to 50% so That is another $50 taking us to $1510 to be level with then. Then production is down 15% so all in all price seems fair now at. PE of 13, till we see how gold price does, whether production recovers and with it costs fall back a bit again. However I am very encouraged by all the sellers, as if all the negative Centamin has sold we should get motoring.

Prof just read your brilliant post after writing mine, shouldn’t have bothered, you have summed it up much better. They are v unlikely to make $490k but profits should rise a lot. Unlike you I am holding all mine.

Dasut, quite so, but the poor PR also mean that we can get the shares on the cheap, and while others are misled we know more about the shares from each other; which is great for us long term holders, for whom it is the profits over the years that we are buying that matter. The fall in production that has only been reiterated today has already been half made up with the rising gold price this afternoon. I feel fairly sure they won't even make 490k ounces, as you say, that requires a stunning rise and very good luck in quarter four. However although this may knock the share price again I remain sanguine. In the end we are buying a play on the gold price and to my mind rather cheaply. I don't understand the fixation with a 5 or 10% fall or rise in production when $30 or $50 on the gold price will make up for it...as long as costs don't rise with the fall, which they say, if we can believe them, they won't. Surely the share price should rise on Pardy going, makes them more attractive to me, unless because of a real, yet untold, disaster.
I have been thinking like Tiger that this is a brilliant takeover target and presumably only the court case is putting buyers off though for the likes of Mark Bristow this is far less worrying than some of the jurisdictions they mine in?
I don't see today as the start of a long fall as last year, as the gold price is so much more robust

Dear Rebess. I have previously been accused of talking our share down, particularly at those first big profit warnings from May 2019 when I suggested our share should fall all the way down to 90p, and in fact it overshot to 79p. This time I think the opposite, the market has overreacted to old news, Pardy going is good, and it is undervalued at 110p. This is my reasoning for the share price now being too low: first the production news was already out there, just confirmation of the sept presentation, and so in the price; as this Latest RNS says “The company previously communicated that 3rd quarter was behind expectation,” and that annual production would be at the lower end of expectation ie 490k ounces, so all this RNS does is make it more likely we will only hit 490k and perhaps 10-30k less. But even 30k less, if costs remain the same as the sept presentation suggest, would only mean a 7% profit drop which is equivalent to $45 on gold price which we could do in a couple of days. I think Costs and gold price matter as much, or more, than a 5% production change. At the sept warning I posted fair value was 10p off the share price of 150p for the lower production and another 10p for management worry, we can add another 10p for lower gold price giving us a fair value around 120p, even if they only got 450k out at a cost of $950/oz and gold price $1500/ounce they would make £100k. So unless the Andrew Pardy has been let go because of bigger looming problems the price has overshot down, and Josef certainly suggests we will get through this. Anyway glad to now be accused of being over optimistic, it makes a change from the usual accusation of over pessimistic. If gold hits 1600 or 1700 we should have profits and shares up 20 or 40%. Good luck all, and lucky Barclays holders who can reinvest their divis at a bargain price.

The soft and fuzzy warning was originally given last month in the presentation and took the share price down 20% from over 150 to 120. Maybe half of that was falling gold. So bottom end of expectation 490k production already in the price. I expect production may end up 10 or 20k lower than that but if costs remain flat that one only needs $15 to 30 on the price of gold to cancel out. Question is did Pardy jump or pushed as future looks bleak, who they get to replace him, will they be good with Egyptian politics as well as mining, and can they keep costs down and production up. But as said this warning already in price, Pardy is the new news, bad as presages worse, good as presages better MD, wonder what market will decide?