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Good article in FT today, mining shares look forward, so to what they think the price will average over the coming year and beyond, a short term rise from virus will not affect long term profits and buyers are still not convinced the current price of gold and silver is sustainable, if they become so price should rocket.imho

Last year's report says long life for Inmaculada? : "In the year as whole, approximately 1.3 million gold equivalent ounces (95 million silver equivalent ounces) of inferred resources have been added, a highly encouraging result which confirms the strong potential in this district and establishes a long life for the Inmaculada operation. "

Tornadotony, that is very worrying but where do you get these figures. A year ago the figures were 1035 million silver equivalent ounces which I make 12 million gold equivalent ounces which is near.ly 30 years years am I reading it totally wrong? 1/3rd of that is measured, 2/3rds indicated, but that is still 10 years measured. You are right that 2/3rds is Volcan and if you wrote this down to nothing then it would be a total elsewhere of 10 years indicated 3 years confirmed, but if Volcan comes off.... which is why analysts seem to think a fair price for Hoc is around £2. this year if they make $500 an ounce gold equivalent on 420k ounces that is $200million less tax or nearly £100k for a pe of 8 or am I getting this all wrong. Thanks TornadoTony

The reaction of the share price is because in quarter 4 they actually hit predicted profit for once - output only 10k down on prediction more than outweighed by aisc fall, so for once we did it, and profits predicted 50% higher this coming year than last year, the share price rise doesn’t fully take account of this so your doubts are in the price; if we succeed particularly with aisc and if gold rises 15% profits should double and so should share price from where it was a couple of months ago so I am hoping for over £2 this year if we don’t hit a bump and if gold rises. Phew I should never have said that tempting fate...

The % change in aisc affect profits 3 times more than the % change in production. With aisc way down (over 10% from mid year) it is like producing over 100k more ounces than then. That is the great news for me. Even year on year the 5% drop equals 15% more profit

Ie no nasty surprises, they’ve done what they said, and market should give them back the rating they had, otherwise the PE will fall to around 12 if gold keeps up and share price didn’t rise.

Very good news, it was to me a stunning 4th quarter with aisc down to a truly amazing for Cey $792 an ounce so churning out $204k revenue. Next year the aisc is lower than recently again, with the increased production, and even lower than I hoped, $870 to $920, plus production up 510k to 540k. This share is now decidedly undervalued. I hope the market realises.

I always think Centamin is like my local clothes store, with frequent sales, you can almost always get it cheaper if you hang on and it is never sold at full price for very long, so 3p doesn’t matter at all, what matters is whether it goes back on sale at a pound or returns to full price at £1.60, I am guessing and hoping that it the latter is the case as Prof and thatthe last two years of endless sales of Cey ends.

Today may be a foretaste of the tussle we are going to face if the stock market tumbles and gold rises. As a thought experiment if the market halved and PE's halved, then one would expect gold share PE's to halve and so gold to need to rise by a third to $2000 an ounce for our shares to remain the same (remembering gold's three fold multiplier on our shares). This is of course over simplistic as other companies profits will likely fall so PE's won't fall as much as the market, gold shares will likely be on higher PE's than the market, however what we have to hope is that gold price rise is fast enough to outweigh market falls.

Così hanno if is brilliant of you to find this but is ma still confused as I cant get the figures to work. I I suppose I was looking at cey’s annual year and I also assume royalty includes profit share as even so the figure of 340 million Egyptian pounds is more than they have ever got from us whatever the year length and whatever you add. As for the 17% rise, the price of gold has a three fold bigger effect on profits than ounces mines, at same ounces produced profits should be up by I would hope at least 50%, far more than their 17%.. So either the figure is just our royalty and the decimal place. Is way wrong, and they expect 17% more ounces from our fallen last year,, or includes something else? Do you have a clue? Thanks and looking forward to Thursday for better or worse...

That is strange as last year if yahoo finance figures are right we had earning per share of 6.5 us cente Which makes around 75 million dollars which means the Egyptian share should have been about 200m Egyptian pounds,?

2019 was great, better than cey valued 50% more but Look at this year with production predicted down 10% and as a result ASIC far higher meaning predicted 30% drop in profit, markets look forward, cey is rising we are falling hence our third lower capitalisation

Same for me unless Endeavour had got a listing in London, as Narclays won’t hold foreign shares. Whopping 6.5% dividend this year, now we just need management to offer a more efficient way of paying it, share buyback or like Glencore a reduction of the Company’s capital contribution reserves , so we can pay cgt. I imagine that Cey should quickly recover once the speculators on a bid are out, unless gold tumbles,

I thought whether a company used its cash flow to buy back shares or pay a dividend, the overall value of the company would be much the same, just slightly fewer shares in the company with a slightly higher value, so would make little difference. Ie 100 shares worth £1 or 10 shares worth £10 mean the same. The main advantage with buybacks is the recipient paying cgt, not dividend tax, when they get the company’s distributed profits, and I have to say I am glad Cey didn’t buy back at 180p 160p 140p or the higher prices we have seen. I like what Glencore do which is a capital distribution which means extra cgt but only when you sell and tax free cash till then. Imho

Thanks!
Presumably this is to
A. To support the End price which s presumably weak as market thinks they will have to offer more?
B. A higher bid is likely tomorrow with all this going on but not high enough for us as sewn up plus our share price is not that optimistic?

Your figures look good to me as ever; I suppose the only thing is that the hedge is only for next 6 months, after that they should benefit from the full price of gold as with Cey cash they wouldn’t need to hedge further, it is also worth noting that the valuation of the teso companies have got closer since the original .846 suggestion, currently the offer would be worth 118p per share, so would need to be about .9 End shares for each cey to be equivalent to where it started,, I wonder if tomorrow they will go just below 1 share or 50% and that will be enough for the institutions that hold both. The downside then, if we hung in the joint company (and it was quoted in London so we all could) is it would increase our political risk and halve the cash flow and dividend (or more than) for now. The upside is C ey/end wouldn’t be exposed just to Egypt, and would have potential growth and cash churning out from some west African low cost mines if stays stable. If they offered 55% to us I would stay in, but I think that is unlikely certainly tomorrow.

I think Endeavour share price just regaining a bit, offer price still only worth 120p - 49.9% of the combine that they might come back with is still only 142p, oh let’s hope they go away, or offer far more.

I have been posting this week that I have been buying more too, as has prof, and with these brilliant figures for the final quarter once we see aisc is down and it translates to profit, we should keep this price and go further if gold rises more, as long as Endeavour doesn’t get us which it certainly shouldn’t below offering us 60%, which is 50p higher per share, and even then I would prefer to keep Cey.
If we mine 500k ounces next year at Aisc 960 and gold price is $1560 (all big but attainable IFs) then I think we make $140k profit after share and royalties etc, or £107k or so, for a PE of around 14 at current share price, so about right, but a 10% rise in gold would raise shares by 25% and maintain the PE IF aisc doesn’t rise. PROF PLEASE CORRECTME

Also the difference between 480k ounces and 500k ounces is 4% affecting profits by 4% other things being equal, However what about the far more important aisc? Can anyone seen how much it has come back down. Last quarter aisc was $1141 per ounce compared to overall $880 in 2018, that is 30% less profit per ounce; with gold at $1500 profit down from $620 per ounce to $359, and at a slightly lower gold price halving profit, hence the huge and justified share tumble. What was this quarter, have I missed it, or do we get it in later figures? I doubt it is back to 880 but hopefully lower 900’s for the quarter to hit this years 1010, still reducing profit per ounce by 20%. Hopefully next year will be in mid or even lower 900’s if we get ounces mined up as costs are spread further.
The big problem question with mines, apart from gold eventually running out, is whether gold price or costs rise faster over the years, and even with rising gold it is a tussle, mine inflation has been huge this century.

The difference between 2018 and 2019 is probably reduces profits by around a third, if costs up $130 an ounce which is probable. So for me the big question is did they get aisc back down in 4th quarter, till we know that we do not know how to 1141 and 880

116p
Current suggestion is we get .846 endeavour share fore each Centamin share
Currently End is 23.51$can which is 137p so .846 is 116p per Centamin share by my maths, so currently it is not going to happen unless much bigger offer, as said need 55%+ I think to have a chance unless very devious, and with end fall more like 60% for me