Member Info for Sotolo

Offer price now equivalent to £1.15 as Endevour tumbles over 5% as gold falls back below its previous multi year high of 1558 last summer

Current endeavour potential offer price now. 117p

If we get an exceptional final quarter output and Dasut is about right that, as a result, aisc falls to $940, then we can expect an overall aisc something a bit above that for 2020, so might be worth factoring that into your calculations, I sadly think $884 aisc is history and now we can expect $100 above that if things go well imho

ps Dasut Hoping final quarter aisc will be back down from last quarter well below $1000 so they make their annual expectation of a bit over $1000, and predict lower than that in 2020

Prof, your figures are very dependent on aisc.. You are right that as of q3 gold price realised is up year on year by $150 dollars. But what spooked the market was “As a function of lower production volumes...AISC are US$1,141 per oz” which is $257 up on your wistful $884 figure from 2018, so more than obviating that gold rise, hence the share price. So I as keenly awaiting next weeks results, not for ounces mined which is of marginal importance compared to our steady rise in aisc. (Also % fall in ounces mined equals same percentage fall in profit, % rise in aisc equals 3 fold fall in profit as POG)

I think and hope we will, I have an unusual £40,000 tax bill from retiring to pay on 31st Jan and last week put it all in Centamin for a couple of weeks, now that is brave! What if Endeavour drop out, might be a knee jerk down from this who bought in because of this, even if good for us longer term,, and what if the father brave final quarter production figures aren’t quite met. Against that gold feel on a roll, but I have just two weeks; I must be madder than usual

Neither just vesting share options and only 1/2% of value
On another note IF silver were to rise Hoc could turn Arcata back on so is even more geared than many, like Centamin who have what they have.

Plus gold still 5% below its top in sterling which is what counts for sterling profits and share price

The miners are a forward voting machine on future profits, by buyers and sellers.. Their prices just now suggest that most think this is a temporary spike up in the price of gold, but a longer term spike in a major cost for the miners, oil, plus so many miners stumble with their ounces mined which are running out. I hope that the market is wrong on both future oil and gold prices but we shall see, often falling miners presage a tumble in gold.

Prof I agree with you and have bought some more. However I thing investors are a bit sceptical of the sector as costs seem to rise as fast as the gold price - aisc’s have trebled this century - and mines are a wasting asset and frequent failures to meet even expected output of what is there. Just my thought.

Other thing holding us back is gold has yet to close above 1560 showing a break out rather than a double top, and of course worry found on past experience, about upcoming results

Profit per ounce roughly equals gold price minus aisc. Gold has risen but oil, a hunk of costs is up 5% since the assassination, which is around $20 of the gold price, then add Middle East worries ...

Stockhouse.com. Is the board and t.edv the share, they don’t seem very keen on their management either, and lamenting their share price is not reflecting soaring gold either.

Thanks Goldgnome, I have always wondered how much aisc actually includes all costs including replacement costs of gold mined, and everything else, ie what else needs to be added to the equation profits = ounces minded x (gold price - aisc) and how much to believe aisc.
Gosh if our price doesn’t shoot up today when will it.......? Which of us would have believed god near 1600 and our price a third below a couple of years ago

Endeavour has risen back a little, I make it endeavour price 25.12 x .846 shares potentially offered divided by pound ca$ 1.699 which comes to £1.25 on the dot? As I have noted the ratio is now recovering with Ca$ And Endeavour price but still not where they started so basically their offer has got even worse than it was to start with. I think all us small investors shops this doesn’t go through as if Ounces mined and more importantly aisc back on track our share price should be where it was when gold was $1550 a few months ago, ie 150 to 160. Let’s just hope that the institutions who hold shares in both don’t win the day as an expedient solution to their Endeavour problems. Or we get offered a minimum of 1.1 endeavour shares, or 25% more than now. Then we would still be exposed to Centamin making up over 50% and rising gold price if that happens, and longer term, and after endeavours hedging is over, maybe together it could work, but no way at these kind of rates imho. So Tiger I too see value in Cey whatever happens, as long as we are near the ounces as you say, and as a result the aisc is back under control (10% fall in ounces is 10% fall in profits but 10% fall in aisc is 30% fall in profit roughLy) so rashly bought a few more yesterday and last week. Always good to hear from you, so Tiger I shall look out for a post from you on the Hoc board as that, like Cey last year, looks to have fallen more than it should on the recent profit warning, by my maths rising silver should more than outweigh that?

Endeavour potential offer now worth 123p per Cey share so we are over 3% above what they are currently suggesting;

Thanks, good luck you too and all of us in 2020 with our health happiness and of course our gold shares, we have certainly waited!

Actually see latest guidance/ profit warning, Hoc only predicts 430k gold equivalent ounces total, ie half gold half silver. As well as the lowered production, or because of it, the more significant aisc has soared to around $1040, gold equivalent, further denting profits. They came under pressure because of this profit warning, and also the political risk of their San Jose Argentine mine where may be hard getting profit out and tax may rise. Anyone know what their total tax/royalty percentage payment is as before it they should be making over £100million even including the above which would be a PE of 9, if tax and royalties are 50% would imply PE of 18:which seems about right with rising gold...

I hold both too, each a third of my portfolio so bonkers unless they soar, but hopefully will turn out ok. Hoc only does 430k equivalent ounce, ie half gold half silver, so 10% or so under Cey, and yes half silver but silver should move in tandem and a bit more than gold. They do have 3 mines but 1 is in Argentina so subject to politics currencies and challenges getting divis out, but better than many places and they know the country well. However is their royalty payment really as high or higher than Cey (55% with profit share) , and if not why is Hoc worth 2/3rds of Cey? Thanks

I thought the results were Jan 9th?
Are they now Jan 15th?
If so Will Endeavour know them from due diligence, if it makes an offer before the put up or shut up date of Jan 14th, but not us.
Why are the results now a day after the bid period closes, fishy?
Also why is our share price so low with gold back at 1510, maybe knowledge that as Prof and Tiger often guess, Q4 production won’t hit the very ambitious target, even tho this only marginally affects profit it will enable endeavour to get us cheaper. Also Pardy going of a sudden makes me worry if this could also be why, and finally new bosses love getting bad figures our so they are seen to improve them. Hope I am wrong but dates all rather fishy as said. Or maybe endeavour and Cey want to get bid in before brilliant results?