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I think when you talk about mitigating losses precious metals and miners are two different things. PM prices should rise, miners depend on healthy workforce, how much they can get out of the ground, costs which rise if output falls, logistics to market etc plus the overall stockmarket PE, so have potential to rise faster than PM’s or fall as PM’s rise. $1660 gold is certainly valued less by Centamin buyers than it would have been 2 or 3 years ago.

Rebess, I like the way Apple spelling turns you into Rebels

Rebels, you make me smile with my penchant for calculation, and my partner even more. I don’t have the exact new figures but just as you say our 50/50 profit share, plus paying half of a very small royalty, in lieu of taxes and hefty royalties don’t compare that badly, so not as bad as it looks. I often look at other miners and think we shouldn’t complain and of course the price we buy shares reflects that we own only half of Sukari, just as other miners’ prices reflect their profit after hefty tax and royalties. Exciting time’s for us and I am hoping to see a new all time high...like another poster today Inhave far too many, nearly 40% of my savings along with a third in other PM miners have been waiting years for now (low real interest rates tho their cause is sad) the market just needs to believe gold take off is real

Yes indeed Phil and Lynne, Cey should make an extra third profit over gold at 1500. However the overall market PE has fallen 15%, so share buyers paying less for each pound of current profit, which is injuring gold miners too, even tho market has fallen because profits expected to fall while CEY profits will rise, it is dragged by that overall PE sentiment imho. Should come good over time as our profits rise while other fall, aided by the oil fall, which is why I just hold unlike brave or clever Tiger. Now for most of question will be whether Cey rises faster than our other holdings fall, till the market settles.

Lovely to see A.M. pushing Kinesis again, on behalf of the 22 men of the executive leadership and advisory board of which he is a part. I take all these pundits, who depend on sales, calls always on rising gold with a pinch of salt and defer to the likes of our Tiger Prof etc who sees falls as well as rises, as said before together we are far better predictors than all the salesmen.

So Tiger are you still out, what price did you get? I am feeling encouraged that the gold bull trend hasn’t been broken, it touched the 50 day average and bounced back up, and remained way above 200 day, plus my overall view is always that above all gold price is the inverse of real interest rates, so today’s cut is very good news for us, if the reason for it sad. However even if gold rises, as I hope, Centamin’s workforce and logistics could still be sadly affected by the disease. However I remain a long term holder as although you may be astute enough for in and out, most investors lose money by over trading. So a second question beyond what price did you get out, what price will you get back in?

Tiger wonderful sentiments as ever, and on forecasting I am far more interested in what you and others here have to say than all those herd gold pundits with their websites selling gold too. I have over the years mentioned the wonders of this board and the book Superforecasting, now also extolled by Dominic Cummings for better or worse. It suggests that a group of disparate informed amateurs who argue their different opinions, are far better than the herd pundits who are little better than monkeys with darts. Which is why I get so upset when some of us disparage others on this board with different views, as they are just what makes this board so valuable. My current view is that it is frightening, but ultimately gold is still way above the 200 day average (and even 50) in a bull market, and fundamentally the gold price runs inversely to real interest rates that seem destined to fall even further. Today is quite probably a bounce, I remember Uncertain’s dead cats in Schrodinger boxes. But as Tiger says forecasting shorter term becomes harder when governments and treasuries interfere with easing, helping all assets of the rich up. Tiger great sentiments, although we may all invest often for our old ages, we have some such decent people from you to Prof, Tibbs etc etc on this intelligent and most helpful board. So more views on where gold will go please.

So wise ones like Tiger, what does the near future hold for gold. Was its big tumble an aberration as investors sought cash, or will gold continue to trend lower as Chinese people and state buy less? Would you be a buyer, a seller or a holder of Cey now, after all we have still done well the last few months?

There is a fundamental issue that the gold that we sell is selling for 6% below a week ago, so if the company carries on as is, at this gold price profits will be about 18% lower than a week ago and our share price has fallen roughly 18% so still I think more or less correctly valued. Big question is the gold price and on that Tibbs I think you are right as a.investors need to raise liquidity in this tumble, and b.every one was talking gold up and buying which usually means most buyers have bought. Gold needed to blow off steam and will be all the better for that. Silver is a bit more worrying as it is considered industrial too

I fear we will be well down today, didn't Ignazio do well selling over £2

Stock prices are concensus views on upcoming company profits so stocks should rise in advance of rises or falls if anticipated, so the market seems to be pricing in gold falls, either as sellers of other stocks need liquidity or the opposite and other stocks rise back sucking in demand. Add in that across the board the recent market falls means the market is paying more for each pound of profit if you think the market is falling faster than profits will. . With some big gold stock tumbles in USA today doesn’t look good for us tomorrow. However for us long term holders just means will be cheaper to top up.

Annual results were 23rd March last year

I am of course no expert but have posted a few times over the years on this worry that you rightly point out. Say overall market profits are expected to fall 10%, and as a result the market falls 20%, then PE’s fall 10% which suggests Cey should fall 10% but if gold rises 3 or 4% that obviates this. So in essence I reckon extremely roughly on the back of my fag packet the percentage rise in gold should be about 6times more important than market fall, so if market halves and gold rises more than 10% we should be ok. However in the short term some people have to liquidate more shares than they want to pay margin calls etc, so gold miners too can have a bit of a tumble, but overall it is profit that matters, the market will demand more profit for a given share price, but hopefully our profit will rise faster than this. However the big question is if/when the market takes a tumble will gold rise or not and that we cannot know. Overall I would far rather be in Cey than anywhere else.

Thanks prof, yes many of us are suspicious of the likes of King World, with its gold sellers forever talking the price up. However many of us believe in gold, and so are long term holders of Cey just for the reasons Tibbs latest post points out, lots in the ground, no debt and high divi. As regards silver, that your kingworld link champions, I hold a lot of hochschild. As I posted on that board, the share price should be about half what it was for the same Gold and silver prices a couple of years ago, as their metals run out and costs rise, next year hoc output is set to tumble and prices soar. With wasting assets miners need pm prices to rise faster than their output falls and costs rise. Even so, as I so often bang on about here, percentage price rise in precious metals is three times more important for profits than percentage fall in production, and I hold the hoc as a geared play on the price of silver even if their mines are running out. Centamin is thus truly amazing as a geared play, with a long life mine cash and great profits, so although the share price should fall year by year for the same gold price, this is only slow not fast like the competitors. Very exciting times for us who have been waitin so long and only hope we live long enough to see gold and silver make new highs.

When you need the money, as Uncertain and many others had to. Otherwise stick with it.

Tornado why have you changed your mind when you were not a buyer around 160. The result are as anticipated with higher profits, a lot from higher gold and silver prices, but terrible predictions for next year that knocked the price a few months ago remain just as bad with production way down and aisc way up. Hoc depends on finding new gold and silver, keeping a lid on costs as production falls, and most of all the precious metals rising. I remain a holder but just wonder why you have changed your mind?

Gold down 3%
= profits down 9%
= share price fall 12p
So yes Terrier why haven’t we fallen further?
My ‘go figure{‘ is the market thinks gold pullback overdone
As Tornadotony worked out a couple of days ago Cey was about fair value, so should be now.

The market is also forward looking, if it expects a 10% rise in gold that means a 30% rise in profit so rising gold should raise the miners’ pe’s. that hasn’t really happened yet as the mining market doesn’t quite yet believe that the gold rise is for real. If or when it does and this become a story it should be self reinforcing and cey should pop ... if or when... some of us have been waiting a long time, through 2016 that was a false dawn as it came back, through the many assaults on 1370... maybe this time, but I think investors caught out so often can’t quite believe their luck will hold this time

Really appreciate this: Great link but looks like it may be from 2011 looking at the dated comment below it? Presumably the values have changed as the recent 50% rise in gold since 2016 takes most ounces from losing money to making lots? Do you have new figures?

Tony, thanks. Do you hold hoc yourself and if so why if you think they have such small reserves?

Also why do you think Bustamente ceo made a large personal investment a few weeks go?

I Really want to know, particularly given your wise insights on the Cey board, as I remain quite a large holder (20% of my portfolio) on the basis they have been around a very long while, and almost as geared a play on silver price you can get - arcata might even reopen?

Thanks Tony