Member Info for Sotolo

Thanks for your thoughtful reply
Yes I think there are positive reasons to continue to hold (and Imstill have half my holding)

A. Timing markets is notoriously difficult. Holding good companies is best. Cey should survive a downturn if one is coming, while others don’t.
B. The balance sheet is strong,and aisc is relatively low, even if costs tend to be a bit higher than it suggests.
C. The company doesn’t poor too much down the useless exploration hole, instead returning it to us
D. An African exploration just might come good
E. Sentiment towards gold is getting worse, with some talking of a return not just to $1040 but $400. Once sentiment is truly terrible (and probably when I sell the rest of mine) the price should turn.
F. Inflation may rise further helping gold as a store of value
G. Interest rates may not rise as much as expected, currently a real pressure on gold.
H. Oil price might fall back reducing costs
I. Court case might be resolved
J. I might be even more upset if cey were to double and miss it than halve, and I lose another hunk of my old age money. Entirely irrational I know.

We are gamblers here, not investors as the metrics are unpredictable. I do not understand those who place bets thinking the casino is rigged, but for those who think ultimately the economy and politics affect the price of gold, it is fascinating to read political and business columns and try to predict
Imho

Casparoni, like you I bought in single figures, like you my nerves have been shredded particularly every Monday, I took advantage of the 120’s to halve my holding to feel more comfortable which means a chunk of nest egg I had been building has gone. I wish I had been braver and sold the lot. I still have 30% of my portfolio in PM miners.
I quite agree that reading this board has become depressing; great posters like Prof and Uncertain post little about the share’s direction, or not at all, to be replaced by the irrational.
Cey has been hit by the huge 4 month fall in gold, already $150, in fact it has held up surprisingly well compared to its peers, and is a relatively low cost well managed producer. When I say this current posters accuse me of being a stooge of the company, but sadly that is part of the worldwide trend to ignore fact and also here to slam the fourth estate that holds government to accounts - journalists, the BBC etc are continually attacked here, despite their efforts to hold governments to account which is their job.
So I am depressed by the fall of gold, by the charts looking vile, but also by attacks here when I said gold shares would fall, which forced me off for a while. I am at least pleased that there is at least more realism about the direction of the price, if not the reasons for it.
The price of our product has fallen over 10%, costs of all miners are soaring especially with oil. These toofully account for our current share price which has held up surprisingly well compared to other miners, It is not marginal changes in production, or a temporary machine breakdown that are the big worry. Iff gold falls another $150 it will be back where I bought cey at 55p
The only Ray of hope is that now much of the rest of the board has joined me in pessimism, and the stronger the gloom becomes, the nearer we will be to a turn

All just imho, my strong sympathies are with you

If silver and gold turn, but both the charts and fundamentals look lousy

Uncertain, your pessimism may have proved wrong, but only so far. Seems to me with cey back up to the low 120’s has been a good time to halve my exposure. I still have a few hundred thousand if it recovers but I feel more comfortable in the current climate with it more likely to fall further. It isn’t over till the fat lady sings, and when she does I fear we will be under a pound, but how far..... it is v kind of cey to come back up to give a decent out, and of course it is better placed than most to weather falling gold, assuming that is what happens.

Winstonwolf be careful, on ths board you will be discourteously criticised if you suggest the gold price or cey might fall, mislabelled as a shorter who doesn't have any shares trying to talk the price down. Sadly the price of gold and cey continues to fall with short periods of respite, but don't say that here, or suggest it might be because buyers look at both the charts and fundamentals and don't want in. So I now try just to read the comments here and not respond.
However yours was such a good link and post, and I can't help raising the question that I discussed on this board with Uncertain a long while back: I am a long term holder and as such wonder was the 2011/12 1800 peak the start of a long bear and the rise from the Xmas 2015 low of around 1040 to 1360 a dead cat bounce, or did gold actually reverse in Dec 2015, and are we seeing a dead cat fall from 1360 in a bull that started in 2015. Sadly the former is looking increasingly likely. if so we have very large drops in the miners to come, and Centamins marginal changes in production are almost imaterial. However as we all know gold can do the unexpected, and like anything when all have sold the price should reverse. But for me the gloom is not enough yet, so I continue to watch this board hard, when post like yours are approved of and even supported, and the tenor is gold will only fall, well that will b the time to buy... all only my opinion but thanks for the link as most 'gurus' are salesmen with every interest in talking the price up.

The fed have made it very clear 4 rises this year and JP said so even more clearly last week. Hence tumbling gold. I quite agree it is the real cost of holding gold that affects the real price of gold most strongly, and with the rising rates cost of holding in terms of lost interest is rising hence gold falling. At the moment nothing on the horizon to change direction
Lets hope it does not test 2015 lows.

Exactly as Winstonwolf says
The share proce looks forward
So first it depends where the market thinks gold will go
And second if the market thinks the production setback is just a blip

There is nothing badly wrong with our company for the share proce to be 50% down. However with costs ove $900a gold or equivalent ounce it isn’t very geared to the price of gold which is down $130 and falling, plus costs rising so profits falling which also means market will pay less for a share that looks to have falling profit.
Imho if gold and silver continue to fall so will Hoc but faster, and vice versa

sadly tumbling metal price is trouncing the good report
HOC is VERY geared to metal prices compared to many rivals, this is a comparison with CEY

HOC predict mining 514k oz, CEY 505-515k oz so identical
HOC aisc 975 CEY 825 so CEY much better

so with gold at $1325 cey makes $500 per ounce, HOC makes $350
with gold at $1425cey makes $500 HOC makes $350
with gold at $1225 cry makes $400 HOC makes $250
with gold at $1125 cry makes $300 HOC makes $150
with gold at $1025 cry makes $200 and HOC makes $50

So CEY much better with falling gold price, HOC far more geared to rising price

Of course CEY p[ays 50% profit share (and still has court case unresolved)
HOC pays $55m tax and royalties
CEY pays $111m in profit share in and this will rise 20% when profit share goes from 40% to 50%

CEY capitalisation 1.35bn HOC capitalisation. HOC capitalisation .9bn

Can anyone tell me if CEY's PE is calculated before or after profit share?

yes our divo will be down and gold still falling, in face of expected rise in interest rates

HOC results today which interesting to compare to CEY as v similar size.

HOC predict mining 514k oz, CEY 505-515k oz so identical
HOC aisc 975 CEY 825 so CEY much better

so with gold at $1325 cey makes $500 per ounce, HOC makes $350
with gold at $1425cey makes $500 HOC makes $350
with gold at $1225 cry makes $400 HOC makes $250
with gold at $1125 cry makes $300 HOC makes $150
with gold at $1025 cry makes $200 and HOC makes $50

So CEY much better with falling gold price, HOC far more geared to rising price

Of course CEY p[ays 50% profit share (and still has court case unresolved)
HOC pays $55m tax and royalties
CEY pays $111m in profit share in and this will rise 20% when profit share goes from 40% to 50%

CEY capitalisation 1.35bn HOC capitalisation. HOC capitalisation .9bn

Phew!

Good figures but sadly price is more dependent on price of PM’s which is still tumbling, than small movements in production figures
HOC 514 equivalent god ounces this year at cost of $907 per ounce. So with gold having
already fallen $100 profit down 25%,if gold falls another $100 profits down 50% and if gold fa,la back to $1000 profits down 80%
And remember share price is expectation of direction of profits
Therefore share price half where it was at the top seems reasonable

falling precious metal prices, and now the charts say a bear is on us, and the fundamentals aren’t great as demand falls; at the same time aisc is up with oil doubling etc - will be interested to see how much in the figures. Therefore it is reasonable to project halved profits and so halved share price, and worse if precious metals fall further. And that is all assuming ounces produced are as expected. Just imho

Who are these new faces prepared for a fist fight on the board?
I for one have been posting here for a couple of years but was driven off posting by the rudeness and intolerance first of my view that gold was falling because of lack of investment demand and because of where we are in the economic cycle and second that I also appreciate Cey’s commitmemt to returning money to us rather than throwing it down. holes.
Please tolerate your fellow members and when you disagree with them stop accusing them of not owning shares, not that it matters.
What one of us writes on this board is hardly likely to affect the share price., it is equally valid for posters like Uncertain to post this week that the price will fall and then he’ll get back in as much as another can post the price will rise and then he’ll get out
The biggest thing that makes me think of selling now is when posters here are grumpy and intolerant, and if management time is wasted, or worse middles the complex Egyptian politics answering all the insults. Of course however it is helpful to ask why production figures changes so much between start and end of May.
Now I will shut up and go down my hole again before any of you chop off more el my head , saying just one thing:
In this increasingly nasty and intolerant world please let us respect each other views here and not insult each other
After all I may be wrong and it may all be a huge conspiracy, or you may. We need all views here
Good bye again

Sorry Recess you asked compounding for what purpose, great you knew the answer to your question. On whether it is good in a miner, there are many miners to invest in that gamble on exploration. I invest in Cey just because in doesnt throw loads down the exploration plug hole. Yes there can be setbacks in any miner but exploration is much more risky. As it is Sukari run well can go on paying 8%at this sort of share price for many years(apart from this year) and I will take that and a bit of capital growth with luck, and strong balance sheet, over the gamble of exploration and losing it all which I can get elsewhere. Of course imho and cey suits me if not you

A. I do hold shares, I am not claiming to own them, 400,000 long term and have even added, and I am not selling as I believe in them long term B. I have been proved exactly right on this fall so far, both on the share price towards a pound, and also on gold likelier to break down than up. Moreover I have long said I think there will be a big shake out before gold rises again and goes beyond where it was before, the bronco trying to scare us off. C. If you are only happy to read posters who say buy now, as do pundits, and the price is about to rise then I can leave the board as you and others wish, sadly on all boards many think people should only be allowed who talk shares up rather than say what they think. I believe in fundamentals, others in conspiracies, as said I like a board that has diversity but understand if others don’t. Just as in politics there is less tolerance of others views just now which is sad D. I have lost around half a million pounds on miners recently which is a lot for me so reasonable to be worried and seek advice and solace from my fellows E. The wonderful Mr Tibbles like me has been driven off this board before both for saying what we think Like him I shall leave the board for a while just when the advice of all is most useful Toodaloo all and sorry to have been a bore for some who believe up is the only way. I feel once again I am in a lift that stops at a new lower floor for a while, I press the up button but it goes down again. I am hoping we will reach the basement and turn.. good luck all

Interesting article but I have read so many from self serving pundits saying gold will go up, over the decades, though often it hasn’t and few that say it will go down when often it has. Also the article suggests the market is stuck around 1300 and lacks direction. Sadly it has direction now.

I am a big holder of hoc, but I sadly doubt we have hit the bottom, as: Hard left government about to be elected in Mexico Oil price has doubled in Pesos (or sterling) and is a large part of costs Gold is falling in dollars and not very good in other currencies and silver worse Us interest rates are rising fast putting up the opportunity cost of holding gold and silver Wish I could persuade myself to put my money where my mouth is and sell half. But I certainly wouldn’t be buying with all that danger Till everyone including you says only way is down For now more buyers can be sucked in to lose Only my opinion But caveat emptor. There is a reason Hoc are ‘30% off.’

You are of course quite right that it is gold in a basket of currencies that counts. And that is comforting. However even in sterling it has been between £900 and £1050 over last couple of years so £960 is not that great. Add to that oil nearly doubled in sterling and why I think price is about right for gold as it is now The other worry is shares look forward to the expected price of gold and Chartists tend to look a gold in dollars so the breakout down matters in hurting confidence But the plus side is for now even the USA continues to have negative real interest rate with its 2.8% inflation but again gold looks forward and seems to expect inflation to come lower than rising interest rates. Hence why Cley seems about right now and the worry about lower profits from lower gold even in sterling and higher costs, if both come about. IMHO

Lucky you haven’t been able to get back in yet, gold seems to have seriously broken out to the downside, lucky you having been out so far, however how low can it go.... well as low as it likes in the changing interest environment.......? Whatever it feels very sorry just now, with little reason for it to rise

What I don’t understand is why they announced such a big annual production fall and increased costs if production back to normal in just a very few weeks??