Member Info for Sotolo

Problem is gold is in a bear market, the charts are horrid, no one thinks the next person wants it, so the potential rise in interest rates as a result of inflation trounces inflation itself
It is real interest rates that have a strong effect on the price of gold, and the expectation is higher inflation will push interest rates up even faster.
But in the end I often think pundits only look at the news that is pushing gold on in the direction which it has confirmed, which is down down down. I wonder if cey will break below the 56p at which I bought it. Maybe, but I am hanging on in the hope that once everyone is a seller it turns back up, though have sold half luckily at a rathE higher price.
Buying now would be extremely brave if not foolhardy.
When the stock market cracks gold shares too will tumble
So I should sell the other half but I won’t!
Because I couldn’t bear to miss out when it eventually soars

As said I. I appreciate your view, these boards need different opinions and respect for each other, I asked a couple of weeks ago how low you see this going, what do you think?

Yes would be very cheap with pe of 10 but I read the pe as being 344 (on Thisismoney, Barclays etc ) and earning per shar of just ¾ of a penny?

I don’t, like many here, think Trump a good thing, it will be interesting to see history’s view, but if Trump were to go the alternative Mike Pence would I believe be worse. However the question on this board is how Trump impacts the gold and cey price. With the booming economy he inherited and has stoked, gold has been falling. Presumably if there was an impeachment it might reverse this. Currently there is a bit of a battle between Trump who would like to slow the interest rate rises, improving gold, and Jay Powell who favours the opposite.
Well done buying cey, I see a short term short covering of gold with cey rising a little, then a continuing fall till the capitulation when we hope it will soar. I notice ETF investment nearly halved in the last quarter so negative sentiment and lack of demand is pushing gold down but once all think down is the only way it will turn and very fast. All just imho and probably wrong.

Interesting article in yesterday’s Telegraph on Why Gold is Spiralling Down:
. Inflows into exchange traded funds (ETFs), instruments that track the price of commodities without needing to hold the physical product, slumped 46pc in the second quarter of the year, according to the World Gold Council, pushing overall demand down 4pc. The first half of 2018 saw demand for the yellow metal fall to its lowest level since 2009.

However it also sees signs of hope...

Quite so
I posted, to some annoyance, that I expected it to come back to the 90’s when the reduced output was announced, but hadn’t counted on quite such a sharp gold price fall on top, so may go down further. I have sold half including some at 125 and some at 114 and having fun with the money raise in Syncona, Optibiotix and Skinbiotherapeutics, which are all exciting, go up and down but more up. While cey, under pressure from falling gold, just collapses. The gold price chart looks terrible.

So I ask again, as when we were talking about Schrödinger’s cat, has gold been in a bear since 2011 peak of 1800 and now en route back down below 1050 and on, or is this just the final buck of the bronco, to throw us off before gold soars

So I am keeping some just in case, and the rising biotech’s just cover the falling Cey, but I am not hopeful

Yes cey is in a better position than many especially without debt
But it is just why I have been worrying far more about rising costs than any fall in production (I know lower production leads to a bit of rising costs, but costs are mostly up from inflation across all mines)
A miner like Orosur is now losing nearly $200 an ounce if it still has aisc around $1450
Very scary times for miners
And unlike industrial metals like copper, production is only marginal to the amount of gold there is, so doesn’t matter that much to price if mines close and production falls, plus price is dependent on investment more tha;industrial demand so doesn’t matter if there is less of it if demand is lower.
So why I have kept reducing my holding but still have 25% of my portfolio in PM miners which is horrid

I think you are well out at the moment as sentiment towards gold remains very bearish, and nothing our company can do about the halving of the profit it makes from each ounce (with gold fall and oil increase). Share price should really be lower, unless investors think gold about to turn back up, and it probably will be lower. I said our share proce would go to the 90’s when the profit warning came back in May. I wonder Uncertain if you may be able to get back in even lower than that as looking worse than then. The charts look horrendous and I don’t yet feel the capitulation that will signal the end of the gold bear, with many still thinking gold about to soar. Unfortunately we could be just 7 years into a huge gold bear starting in Aug 2011. I know Uncertain that we have discussed this possibiliypty before, and although gold would have to test 1050 to prove it, it is not so far off,so increasingly worrying. Glad I sold half but envy you who sold all. Now hope my Opti, Skinbio and Syncona rise faster than cey falls.

None of us is always right, just as long as we are right more than half the time
And Mr Smith called the rather large retracement correctly this time and was helpful
Timing the market is notoriously difficult and taking a profit on a volatile and unpredictable share never a mistake, even if the share subsequently rises - a lot of investment is avoiding risk. However nipping in and out is shown to overall lose money
So instead of selling at 130 I have just bought more at this price just hoping the second half of Mr Smith's prediction doesn't come true and the price doesn't fall back below a pound
However above all I find it very annoying on the boards that it is considered fine to hold and suggest price will rise, while not fine to hold none and suggest price will fall
I would hope however that most of us post where we think the price will go, rather than to help our holding or lack of one, understanding that few will listen to us on these boards, the buys and sells are small and in the end the price will find its level
all imho

Yes for miners altogether
But at least no trading over weekend, but dread each next week
It will sadly continue till gold turns
Which could be a while

Smith I appreciate your views. I hold Opti and Skin, , and am happy to see some profit taking around 130 and 30 as expected, too far too fast. However timing the market is notoriously difficult, according to research it leads to losses, and I am a long term investor so happy to stick with it and ride the ups and downs.
However I VERY much appreciate different views to mine, it is why these boards are useful. And I fail to understand why so many on these boards criticise and even insult those who have sold out or gone short saying that they are expecting a fall, as rampers, while those who are long expecting a rise are admired. Markets are made of buyers and sellers, so should bulletin boards, who knows who may be right. So please can we respect each other.
So thank you Smithy for voicing an opinion these shares may fall. In the menatime as said I hold, as I expect in time they will rise further.

Thanks, have just done so, problem is I don’t ryaenAndrew MaGuire, and also still feel too exposed to gold with nearly 30% of my portfolio still in PM miners

Yes uncertain, for the last couple of months I have felt grim every Monday morning as gold shares about to start the week with another lurch down. Now with a nearly equal amount of Optibiotix Skinbio &Syncona & the Barclays and ITV replacing 40% of the gold shares I can now look with anticipation and interest at the Monday markets. My replacement purchases may go down a bit but at least the overall trajectory is up while sadly, with the miners, the charts, the fundamentals and the shares are still marching resolutely down. As a result of my split I am at least level pegging, for now..., waiting for the day when gold turns up with inflation but could be years as it fights rising real rates, and in the meantime.... hope not so long. However I think you are wise to wait

Well Uncertian, as you ask, I bought a hunk of Syncona, and a bit of ITV and Barclays for security, none of which has done much so so far though Syncona should get going, but the day before you asked me, a week ago, I spent the last quarter on Syncona and Optibiotix. Each of these are up over 30% in a week which makes up for a chunk of the cey fall, and is now reversing daily falling miners for me, wish I’d been braver and got more. So now I am down from about 60% to about 25% of my shares in miners so will feel better if they halve again, as the rest of my portfolio will hopefully make up for it, and I am so sentimentally attached that I would be more mortified to miss a rise than catch a fall. But it had to be done. When buying I had an exit strategy of selling a bit if cey reached 200 more at 250etc, and a stronger one on the way down. It hit my first figure down so I sold 20% and my second figure so another 20%. Combined with the fall I have 60% of the shares left but 40% of the value. I feel one has to be disciplined despite taking a large loss being very painful. Above all it seems necessary in this business to cut the losers.

Quite agree, spot on, etiquette and tolerance in all matters on this board,

Yes aisc is up partly because of lower ounces mined, but also all miners are reporting increased aisc with sharp rise in cost of oil etc. In my opinion all the fall in Centamin, from 160 before production warning in May, can be attributed to reducing price of gold and increasing costs, other miners have fallen further particularly higher cost ones. I agree with Dasult that our management has done well for us, particularly navigating the difficult politics, and the broken machine from which the price fall from this has recovered apart from tumbling gold which has taken it back down further. That is why I stick with cey even a gold falls.

A rather terrifying rise in aisc from $879 to $1073 if I read it right, even worse than I expected. Let’s hope the aisc comes back faster than the gold price falls
As you know I think the production figures are far less important than the aisc and price of gold, which will boh dent future profits.
DASUT I agree gold is oversold and is likely to bounce with short covering. However I believ this is likely to be only a dead cat bounce in the face of the current strong economic news. Costs (esp oil) and price of gold are pretty much outside management control and mean more people are taking a. view forward and selling.

I wouldn’t bottom fish Cey price is only temporarily dependent on results. The fall since April can now be entirely explained by falling price of gold as shares have held up as gold falls further, erasing the proportion of the fall from reduced production. So if u think gold has bottomed then so has cey, but I don’t, plus oil is still rising I have said for months cey will go under 100 and if gold falls another 50 dollars it probably will However I am still holding quite a lot in hope I am wrong, and gold doesn’t fall back to 1040 or 400. So in answer to your question NO we haven’t reached the bottom imho

totally right on two things, first successful investing is about cutting your losses so if you are losing on HOC that is just the time to get out, and second it depends on gold price, and at these gold and silver prices HOC is only fair value, it is very exposed to tumbling as gold and silver just drift down, especially as it costs are rising too. If Hoc halves you would be please to have got out at 175, of course if unexpectedly it soars instead you wouldn't, I sold a third of mine at 187 and feel happier

it is the trajectory of expected interest rates, and manly US interest rates that the market watches
the expected number or rises this year has gone up from 3 to 4
job figures etc seem to show a fast economy which makes rises more likely
however if it looked like the number was coming down then gold would indeed rise
because this is currently unexpected