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did the same 39000 at around 126p (at start of week as I mentioned). However the key word is 'provided'. The metal gold tends to do everything except what you expect, except when it does exactly what you expect to confound you. Looks weak now, which is contrariwise positive, but understanding that makes it negative... Hope too I have not been a reckless fool as already way over invested in this and other miners - 50% of my portfolio, but if gold can stay up against the headwinds of rising US interest rates, company profits, and thus shares, then things look good. IF

Tibbs on tenterhooks for what your morning conversation revealed. Did they call?

Sorry John but Maynard Keynes never said facts do net change, but the opposite that they do, and that is the time to change your mind. So TIBBS will find out for us today whether long term facts as well as short term facts have changed for us. The other thing is Mrs Market has a mind of her own so just when you decide as you suggest that 11am is the time to trade she makes lunchtime better, and she can decide one green candlestick doesn�t make a spring. Investors on here do their best, and the collective wisdom of amateurs in predicting has been shown to beat professionals, but no one knows what gold shares will do as I haven�t yet found anyone who can predict the price of gold however many charts etc they use. All management can do is get costs down (TIBBS will hopefully get answers on this too) mine as much as possible, without natural and political disasters which befall all, and hope they find some more at not too much cost before their seam runs out. So all or views are just as valid as each other�s and helpful. Which is why it is all such fun if dangerous. Just my thoughts and thank you in particular TIBBs for your call this am.

I posted on Friday that this reminds me of the Hochschild profit warning a year ago From memory the share price before the warning (also from mining problems) had been roughly double cey, ie around 320, shot down to around 260 or 130 in Cey terms, bottomed out around 180, or in Centamin terms 90, now back to around 216 or 108 in Centamin terms. However Hochschild balance sheet was weaker so it was more worrying, and hopefully Cey won�t suffer quite so badly. On back of a fag packet, Cey should fall 30% for what has happened given new profit expectation, and another 10% for management surprise, so towards 40% which is around a pound. I still feel in the long term Cey is good, still making money, especially if production recovers next year, the costs comes down again, price of gold holds and even rises, and most of all the court case doesn�t go against the company. Whatever the divi, and hence price, will be lower this year. Can�t wait to hear Tibbs report, What I want to know is why news so sudden, and is it temporary both on production and costs.

Ps I am usually quite good at buying low, it is the selling I find so hard as I always think it may go higher. Which is why In have so many Cey. However I took a good profit on Apple Facebook Fever Tree Taylor Woodrow EasyJet and Tui all to put here, thinking overall market toppy, only to see thes extra Cey fall, while the other shares sold have continued up. I was rather early but let�s hope the party will start some time, for us even if not great for the world.

As said earlier I expect it to fall further, if profits 20%down then should fall more than that. However we are not market timers and if this is a temporary setback to the mine this may seem a good price next year depending on POG

Quite so. It was a pleasure to get up to your posts as ever prof.And to read your sanguine thoughts. One hopes it is a typical mining problem, that couldn�t be forseen, the management has been good to us. As you may remember I reduced my holding to 300000 a hike back but have started tentatively adding at 126. It feels as though gold may finally break upwards, - chance would be a fine thing and I am probably wrong but for me that is the big need as all niners� costs are rising.

I would like the information to judge how bad this is, whether it was managements fault or sudden let down in equipment/ surprise in geology, and how much of aisc increase is attributable to lower production, how much to oil price increase and how much to anything else. I would like to know just what the problem in ordering the machines was. I would like to know about whether lower grades now is just something to get through. I would like to understand how the board say output will improve in later quarters this year, yet overall production be 15% down?? I would like to understand how this became apparent since the results in early May. I would like to understand if this was sudden and beyond managements control. Above all I would like to understand whether production and aisc are expected to be back to normal next year. I will ask, just hope they tell me. Disasters happen in all businesses, it is how the company owns up and deals with them tha counts and in this information is key. All imho

I think the share price going forward is partly dependent on how market behaves to companies who make profit warnings Hochschild is a not that dissimilar size miner who issued a similar warning a year ago. It�s share price was about double Cey�s, both before their warnings. It fell a similar 20% or so immediately ie to around 260. I bough a few. And it rose a bit but then continued its fall down to around 180p or 90p in Cey terms, a 40% fall, and now with good results is back to 220 or 110 in Hoc terms after a year.for 30% pennalty. Markets can be very harsh, and CEY has said overall profits will be considerable down this year even with a pickup in the second half. So I shall avoid getting more Cey just now. Wish the market had let me sell first thing Fri. Hopefully it will be a different story with Cey to Hoc, and when they pick up a bit, unlike Hoc they will not fall back down and much further. They do have a strong balance sheet. And Inveso remain keen. However I am not brave enough to risk it. Profit warnings are always worrying. Again let�s hope a rising gold price will save us, but a falling one will really batter us. All only imho So annoying And lack of full explanation even worse Any thoughts Uncertain and Prof

Do I have this right? With gold price at 1300,aisc of 880 leaves 420 profit, as supposed to 770 which leaves 530 profit, so around 20% profit fall. On top Production is down 580k oz to 510k or another 12%. So overall profit down on expected by about a third this year. Which would imply share price down a third plus a bit mor for losing trust, as recent figures either misleading or show extraordinary ignorance. Though I suppose when the early may numbers were crunched earlier in the year the oil rise hadn�t taken off so much. I actually find the amount of increase In aisc due to oil rise even more worrying as management can do little about it and really hits all miners. However presumably market thinks reduced output (and its contribution to rising aisc) is just a one off for this year. Let�s hope so, or that my schoolboy maths is very wrong, or gold rises $150 to put profits back where they were. .

Tried selling first thing but couldn�t, now I think stick with it as it falls? What about you prof. Now if gold was to rise $200we would be back where we were...I would love to know if this is recoverbale

Lovely to hear from you but sad in such circumstances. Unfortunately not an accounting error as suggested but lower output and higher costs. What is so surprising is it is so quick after the guidance 3 weeks ago. Although those figures may have been prepared earlier in the year. Big question is what caused it and do we recover next year? Think I will ask them.

Fall less than I would have thought so far, very rum

Sadly unsellable so far this am, wonder how market will react when one can?

What I don�t understand is it is only 3 weeks since annual guidnace was over 10% more ounces and over 10% less costs, this is together a 25% fall in 3 weeks, and greater than that on profit? Any one wiser than me understand what ha sharpened in last month that is so very surprising

This is from the results a month ago �018 Outlook The Company maintains full year production guidance for 2018 of 580,000 ounces at forecast cash cost of production of US$555/oz and all-in sustaining costs of US$770/oz;� So pretty dramatic fall to 510k oz and $880aisc below! Over 10% fall in production, and even worse over 10% rise in Aisc with falling production and rising diesel. Am I reading it right? Will shares tank?

Not sure about an article that begins that gold shares always movin in opposite direction to broader stock market. The big worry for me is if shares tumble will that lower expected pe�s across the market and so brig gold shares down too? I seem to remember gold shares more than halving in 2008. Second it is all very well looking backwards at aisc�s but looking forward many miner have underinvested in the lean times to conserve cash, hence higher profits, and will need to invest more now, plus oil a key cost is on the up. Being a contrarian, I always hate articles that talk gold up, as gold seems to have a mind of its own confounding �so called� experts. I am happy when all say gold is headed for a fall. However I am a long term holder and have managed to stay on the bucking bronco of Cey through some scary. Omens, I still love this company which is feeling worryingly good.....

Thanks, all is very well apart from my portfolio which is down 10% from its peak, and far too mining biased so somewhat scary and either brave or foolhardy or both. I have just over 300k cey left, as if one has a gold share can�t think of better, and I certainly have worse! Yes the court case and politics may be a risk, as Tibbs points out, but so far the management have seemed as adroit as is possible navigating through these; as even Mark Bristow at Randgold has found in the Congo it isn�t easy. So these miners in politically doubtful countries are always a bit of a gamble but the cey realistic share price, which takes the danger into account. helps protect us and keeps a very juicy dividend as long as our management keep their fine steering! Where did you put the money you realised? I hope life is treating you well too. I have just become an OAP like many on this board,

Tibbs always a pleasure seeing you returning to the board, we all need time away, I have also been missing amongst others Uncertain, who is I think currently out of the stock, and El Professor, who I think still had many. However it is a pleasure to see the price drifting up, with the gold price not doing much in sterling, though disappointing that I only have 300k left, and doubly disappointing that I sold and bought back on ex div day, to avoid v hefty dividend tax, but the rise in gold that day meant I only made about 1.5p per share instead of the divi. Did the same last year but maybe not next. I love this share but think sadly the management can't do much about the court case or diesel. And it is fab to have a miner that pays out so much to us rather that putting it all back in the ground in search of new mines. Our management seems reasonably circumspect in Africa. The management is one of the man things I look at in buying a share and I am grateful to ours for increasing the price 3 fold since I came in, and paying out such a whopping amount even if a share buyback would be more tax efficient for me. Anyway great to see you Tibbs, we need more views and strong opinions here, and Uncertain and El Prof and other absent friends hope to see you soon

It seems to me that markets seem to look at wichever of the statistics happens to be in fashion (remember money supply and all those different motorway sounding figures that no one is much interested in any more) to justify the way they want to go. US inflation figure today. Higher inflation is good for gold as it protects value, but means higher interest rates which means higher opportunity cost of holding it so bad for gold, take your pick. Often it seems to me the news is used to justify the sentiment the market already has. And the sentiment at the moment seems to be that it is still coiling like a snake unable to make its mind up whether to lunge up or down. Like a snake precious metals like to surprise us and todayls US inflation figures certainly don�t do that. IMHO