Member Info for Soder

I am not invested. A former shareholder though. But I still follow the news flow and this board from time to time as I am actually working trifled by this one as I had a big position and lost a lot.

Re the silence…I would take that as a positive. Most likely means something going on like m&a I would suggest.

We shouldn’t underestimate the importance of esg and social responsibility for attracting institutional money. This type of model behaviour is literally happy crack on the institutional investor esg ratings models.

One of the good things of this is that vwr and avantor both have history with private equity.

You also have big PE and ownership on the labs side of the industry and I would think they are always on the lookout for cheap optionality and business the market doesn’t value correctly. Novacyt sat on the dip **** infested U.K. aim market being swung around by penny stock retail traders fits that bill perfectly.

I would say with some confidence that is just paper talk and won’t happen. The budget will be extended.

They are genuinely ****ting their pants about the upcoming winter and were massively unprepared during late 2020/early 2021 - and have been rightly chastised for it. Even this shower won’t be so Incompetent to get caught with their pants down again.

IMO the sole reason we are opening up now is the fear of a new variant/new wave combined with a bad flu season come winter time. They need people to get it now and test the vaccines work before that possibly happens and the **** hits the fan.

Further confirmation why I won’t be getting my kids vaccinated.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57766717

I think we can all agree this government has been and is a shambles. They defend the indefensible, look after their chums and are led by a lying, cheating, scumbag, full of **** and wind, and who looks like he was just dragged out of a skip. I’m a life long Tory and unfortunately I voted for this shower but for the first time ever I didn’t even bother voting in the recent local elections and probably never will again.

They have had 18 months now to sort this mess out. This irritating notion of wanting to protect the nhs….They could have spent billions on building new healthcare capacity during that time instead of fighting fires. The leadership has been shambolic and continues to be.

Disagree. The reason for repeated lockdowns is simply because lockdowns don’t work and are t a long term strategy for managing a population. You can’t hide from an invisible virus! You lockdown, you suppress it and case go down. You open up and it comes back and case rise. After 18 months of restrictions how long do you think we should keep them in place for? Forever? Covid will never go away. Life is not a longevity contest and just ensuring everyone lives longer and can die of anything else apart from covid can not be the central strategy of any government.

Arguably locking away 70m people, denying citizens of their basic freedoms, forcing business to go bust, forcing children to miss school etc is more of a dangerous and unethical experiment that allowing people to make an educated and free choice with regards to their own life and situation? Especially in the context of a survival rate through 99 % and the average age of a fatality in the U.K. being above the average life expectancy anyway. News flash: people die. We can’t go in like this forever.

Let’s be clear here…. The nhs is the fifth largest employer in the WORLD, currently employing 1.7m people. The document states ALL staff have to test twice weekly and apparently the U.K. remain committed to domestic manufacture.

Do the maths.

Anyone else noticing witty in particular talking about what could be a bad winter with covid alongside flu. Glue getting more and more mentions.

Here is an off piste and left field thought…. Second phase of dhsc conreact to be resurrected from dead with winterplex front and Center. Now how good would that be.

I genuinely think they are worried about this winter and already got chastised once for not planning for it last summer.

My kids are 5 and 8. They cannot make decisions for themselves regarding that. Mmr Jabd and disease I can make a decision for them as it has been around for years, has been tested and I know the risks from mmr diseases they would be exposed to. My kids are otherwise healthy and the global stats say very clearly that if they were to contract covid they would have close to zero chance of severe illness. The vaccine has not been around long enough to ascertain how it can impact children’s development or any other longer symptoms. I will take that risk with my own life as Although I am fit and healthy I am prepared to be a good global citizen and get the jab. But for my kids…I am putting them first and not people who die with an average age of 80+ Thus, the question you ask me should not be why I would not let them have but but why would I let them.

Shel announcing it will be boosting distributions 20-30 percent from second half as cashflows so strong.

This is what will lead the second tor to restate.

“Allowing children to remain unvaccinated” ? The U.K. government does not own its citizens children!!! As a dad of 2 I will state proudly that my kids will not be getting vaccinated and the government or anyone else can **** off if they think otherwise. Children have given enough to older generations (lost education, denied social contact, learning, lasting damage to mental health) through this pandemic and will be paying for it for the rest of their lives (missed career opportunities. Higher taxation, qe and inflation meaning property is now wholly unaffordable etc.
As it stands their own risk of fatality from contracting covid is beyond tiny. Why do you want them vaccinated? To protect yourself? Maybe take some personal responsibility for yourself.

Whole mkt took a hit from us rates move post ism data

Not sure about cash at bank number as dhsc did not pay for an awful lots of product in q1. That will have at least a temporary effect on cash balance.

The forecast number I use are not mine btw. They are the Mean of all the analyst models that Bloomberg collates. That’s every analyst from the brokers that has a model and reports on harbour.

Sit down. Shut up. Wake up. Double money. You can hold me to this post in December 2022.

It’s really not rocket science. Assume we trade on a flat valuation multiple for the next 12 months. Over the next year earnings will be higher as production will be higher and so is oil price. And we know cash flow is building to reduce net debt.

At the moment we trade as follows:

2021 ebitda (mean of street analyst consensus as reported by Bloomberg) $2.3bn
Forecast 2022 ebitda (from mean analyst consensus reported by Bloomberg ) $2.643bn
Current Net debt (reported) $2.7bn
Year end net debt 2021 (mean Bloomberg analyst consensus ) $2.37bn
Year end net debt 2022 (mean Bloomberg analyst consensus $1.43bn
Current market cap in usd is $5.1bn

Put it together:

Enterprise value = mkt cap plus net debt
Current EV = 5.1 + 2.7 = 7.8bn
As a multiple of 2021 ebitda this is 7.8 / 2.3 = 3.4x. That is CrAZY CHEAP.

But let’s assume it’s constant for next year would give.

Implied enterprise value = multiple x forecast 2022 ebitda
= 3.4 x 2.643 = 8.96bn
To get implied market cap we take away the forecast 2022 net debt which is: 8.96 - 1.43 = $ 7.5bn which is 47 per cent higher than current mkt cap and implied that even on current t valuation multiples this will be fifty per cent higher in 12 months.

And that’s with using a ****ty ev ebitda multiple of 3.4x!!!! Maybe n a normal year the historical average is 6-8x. Mean reversion. It will happen. You WILL DOUBLE YOUR MONEY BY THE END OF 2022.

Shut

More buyers than sellers over a sustained period of time?

More importantly, what will **** you up?

This is the easiest investment I own. A business making 100m of free cash a month. All you have to do is buy it and wait until it reports. It’s literally a buy, park away, go kip, free money price. all you need is the patience until they report over the next 3-6-12 months.