Member Info for Soder

You are not going to get a rating or a refi of the debt on a standalone basis. What ever he said on that call re timing….ignore. The rating and refi of the debt will obviously be part of the m&a process.

Been chatting to a few people who are starting to return to the office over last few weeks and some who are being called back in from July 19.

Without exception, they have to do a minimum of 2 LFTs down stairs in a week. These are administered by health professionals in a room as you enter the building. It’s very quick and you get your result sent to you within 20 mins at your desk. If negative you carry on as usual. If positive have to leave office immediately and go get pcr via nhs.

They think the testing is being offered by a private provider who have a contract with the company on a global level - this makes sense as these are not small national companies but really big organisations in city of London with thousands of employees so will be meaningful testing.

Apparently if a positive case is found emails get sent for people in the team or area they work and they all have to leave and take a test until pcr confirms results. The number of these emails has been going up massively over the last few weeks. But this shows companies and the private sector are now doing there own test and trace.

This will start to ramp up massively as more people are called back to the office from July 19.

If you can get a home use LFT in the mix there it HUGE scope in the private sector as we reopen offices globally as companies will need to do there own test and trace - not just national governments.

Bases covered.

The reality is ncyt is worth much much more to someone with a global sales and distribution platform that it is as a standalone business.

The products are there. The innovation is there. But the global platform to sell those products is in its infancy and can’t easily and cheaply be created.

Abbot, thermo etc already has a sales force that covers the globe and could be selling our world leading innovation globally at an instant.

With the sp here are are a sitting duck. To the point that the management of ncyt (who are their to maximise shareholder value) should probably run a strategic review which would include the possibility of selling ourselves.

I wonder how many people celebrating the news bought more shares. Pretty much close to zero I bet.

I wonder how many holders were hoping for a bounce to reduce some shares 10-20 percent up. Quite a few I bet.

The technical on this is not great. And this news was flagged. Albeit any upside far from priced in. I’m long and holding but resigned to the fact the stock has an ugly technical now and the mkt makers have destroyed confidence in people to set speculative longs without seeing hard sales and contracts details etc.

Range bound until dhsc dispute IMO.

I do find it odd they did not release the name of the partner. Or have I missed that?

I have a view. You need to read accounting for dummies as a starting point.

I’m not involved here at all. I am in eco. But was coming to see what people thought re jabillo timing. That’s all. Don’t need your attitude thanks.

Yes but eco has other assets, that including 15% of tullow operated orinduik

The results of this drill are due in July. Possibly in as soon as a few weeks.

Jabillo-1 on its own is potentially worth nearly 30p net to eco. The next well will began drilling in q3 (sapote-1).

You wanted high impact. You got it.

Following berenberg out now…

Buy. Px target 100p

Eco is top pick on aim listed explorers.

“This is an exciting development which gives eco exposure to near term drilling catalysts. We have revised our model with renav increasing by 8p. We maintain our 100p px target and buy rating. “

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/chad-s-exxonmobil-workers-strike-reducing-crude-output-271624868162

Out with a note post news. Buy rating and 123p px target.

“Success would be material for eco. Exxon have no provided form guidance on jabillo 1 however previously published Information estimates up to 1bn bbl which would be 17.5m net to eco. Based on the fiscal terms of the orinduik block we arrive at an untitled pre drill nov of usd 6-7/boe, equating to c. usd 105-120m net to eco versus a current market cap of usd 60m. Drilling success should provide material nav upside and de risk the sapote 1 well and additional prospects on the canje block”

Exactly. The data from the first drill massively derisks the remaining drills. If it was a dry hole with little prospect of success on the other pets of the structure do you think Exxon would bother drilling the other 2 wells?

This is only positive. It can lead to a MASSIVE re rate of the share price by the end of summer. People just live moaning.

If someone says to you last week we will dilute you at 24p (when sp is 23p mid) for an imminent drill program on low risk assets led by Exxon in a prolific basin you are doing cart wheels.

This has multi multi bag potential.

Turns out we do have some 2021 drilling in Guyana after all.

Tbh it’s not clear how to clue this but the option value is worth way way more than current sp. get ready for an exiting next 12 months that could make holders hear meaningful ££££.

If anyone is left wondering re the full impact of the worst case scenario (dhsc win in full) or another poster decides to throw a grenade. Please remember this statement from the annual accounts which is signed off by a independent auditors in conjunction with external legal counsel and the board. So all insiders and all who will be breaking the law by making false representation.

Page 7. Note 2.8 of the Management Report

“ The Directors have, at the time of approving the financial statements, a reasonable expectation that the Group has adequate resources to continue in operational existence for the foreseeable future. Thus, they adopt the going concern basis of accounting in preparing the financial statements.
The going concern model covers the period up to and including June 2022. In making this assessment, the Directors have considered the following elements:
- The working capital requirements of the business;
- A positive cash balance at 31 December 2020 of £91,765,000;
- Payment of the second tranche of the Long-Term Incentive Plan (“LTIP”) that commenced in November 2017 and concluded in November 2020;
- Payment of the first earn-out milestone related to the IT-IS International acquisition; and
- Management’s confidence in settling the outstanding commercial dispute.
In the event the current dispute is fully settled in favour of the counterparty, the forecast prepared by the Group shows that it is able to cover its cash needs during the financial year 2021 and until June 2022 without the raising of any banking or other financing facility.”

The coining concern model has to be for 12 months from publishing the accounts - so out until June 22. This explicitly says that even if the dispute is fully settled in favour of the dhsc we are solvent with adequate liquidity. Given we have 90m of cash (plus and cashflow from H1 although likely negligible as the dhsc not
Paid us for q1 or 23m of q4) it is not possible that the full liability for the dispute can be the sum of the revenues the dispute relates too plus the provision taken against the dispute. That in itself is total utter nonsense of a calculation and certainly not one any trained or qualified accountant would make.

Because they are pretty much prevented from buying oil and gas companies at the moment due to ESG. That’s across the entire street. Pull up shell and boo and take a look at where their share prices were last time oil was at 75.

The whole sector is trading at a 40 percent discount to where it was 18 months ago.

Oil is the new tobacco. Go figure.

What a dip ****. The mention of dividends is in the presentation that came alongside the rns. You saw that right?

But….you do realise these aren’t earnings right? It’s a trading update around the AGM. Name me one company in the history of time that has announced a divi at the agm? I’ll wait.

https://www.harbourenergy.com/media/rxhdfsin/210623-investor-presentation-june-2021-vff.pdf

Worth a read.

Page 2. Shows q2 was low point for production given planned maintenance. For q3 they forecast looks like 210k and q4 225k. So will be going to the back part of the year with oil at 75 and our production at highest and entering 2022 full steam ahead. This is with tolmount online from end of July.

Free cashflow break even if the biz is 30-35 bbl.

12. Fat finger.

Analyst price targets are all 12 month targets. That’s because they will model out 13 months using a price deck for that period.