Member Info for Soder

Market cap = share price x shares outstanding

If you have the mkt cap already why do you need the no. of shares?

Could be us. 15 mins. High volume.

I am not sure how much we do on pillar 2 testing though in U.K. for the government?

If I adjust for 180k production a day with the hedge book provided by the company. Then use $65 oil average for year and 50p a therm average spot gas I am still above 2bn ebitdax even taking the $16 opex per bbl.

At 2.9bn debt that gives us an ev ebitda of 3.5x current year earnings. Far far far far far too cheap.

And then for next year… assume tolmount on line… I take 210k ave daily prob with current hedges in place and the. 68 ave oil and 50p therm gas on non hedged portion. I get 2.7bn of ebitdax and ev ebitda of 2.5x on 1 year look forward financials. That is beyond insane. The rest of the sector trades at 4-6x.

Don’t fret. At current sp this is more than priced in even if we get a wobble form day traders next few weeks.

Honestly, look at the valuation. This share trades as if production would be below 100k a day anyway. At these levels loosing 10k of tolmount for 5 months is irrelevant. We were still doing 100m FCF pre tolmount this year. Yes capex is back ended but we will still be way north of 2bn ebitda and FCF pike will still be building.

A delay makes no diff to my enthusiasm and not nveatment here.

Cool story, bro.

Kaeren that’s a really good point. And probably we will have incurred some of those costs in q4 2020. In fact given the strength of that quarter they will probably have pushed those costs deliberately into 2020 financials to get the full benefit in 2021.

In a perfect market price equilibrium is found when buyers equal sellers. But even when buyers way out numbered sells a mkt maker can use the banks balance sheet to thump a share price lower. Meaningfully lower. When it goes lower you eventually get the weak hands to fold. And in this stock there are plenty of weak and ill informed hands that have no clue how to value this business or indeed any business.

Covid has bought out an army of dream chasers who play markets and made money on the bounce back last year. And smart market maker is now taking all that money back.

North of 110 would mean 20m of free cashflow on 55m of sales to non dhsc and 40.7m of sales to dhsc who have not paid for them. Hence on those 40.7m of sales we have and incurred 100 percent golf why ever our gross margin on those sales was. It’s got to be at least 15m no? On that basis 100m is just not possible as they would need to make 35m of free cashflow on 55m of sales. We know ebitda margins are only 40 percent so it’s physically not possible they can have a higher cash conversion rate than their ebitda unless there is a cash flow from somewhere else? Working capital?

How do you get to 110 or is it just guessing with no thought?

I am trying to discuss something important and useful. Can you **** off this thread and start your own threads to discuss your meaningless petty ****** please.

Mortgagee I think if we come out of that half with a cash inflow this share will rocket. As will be able to show that even without dhsc payments but incurring the costs we are free cashflow positive. If we did get the dhsc payments then even net of the provision the cash balance could be close to 150m.

I think that may be a challenge with dhsc. Look at the below from the update.

Non dhsc sales will prob be around 55m for H1. At 40 percent ebitda margin that will be about 22m ebitda. Then assume 50 percent cash conversion that gets 11m ish of free cashflow ex dhsc. Add that to the 92m of cash at year end and you get 103m. BUT, we sold 40.7m of product to the dhsc which we record no money for and will have had to incur the cost of producing that product. What will 40.7m of tests for dhsc cost us? I would say at least 11m. Maybe 15m? What are the gross margins on that dhsc contract? As such could be a small cash outflow in H1 pre dhsc resolution.

But, the

For the five months ended 31 May 2021, the Company had unaudited sales of £88.4m compared to £40.8m for the same period in 2020. This £88.4m includes £40.7m of sales to the DHSC, which are part of the dispute. Excluding the DHSC, the Company saw a run-rate of over £10m in sales per month in Q1 2021, which has declined to approximately £7m per month in April and May as infection rates eased and testing has dropped sharply.

I added more today. And I have dumped tons of other stocks in here and let me tell you why….

We know the hedge book and we know the daily production. And we know in the second half that post tolmount coming in stream that half of ALL production is NOT even oil… it’s GAS.

Ahhh gas. Love it. Green. Clean. En vogue. In demand. And as such…. It’s trading at a level 76 percent higher than it was at the end of may (p per therm) and double what it was at the start of the year. Gas is good. Gas is sold on long term contracts and provides HUGE stability to earnings and cash flows. Even without gas, the spot oil price could half here and stay at that level for a long long long time and this would still be a screaming buy.

https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5101974&span=2

Let the traders, trade. Let the spivs, spiv. If you can add do so. If you can’t don’t worry. You don’t need to mark your own portfolio to market on a daily basis. Relax and ride the next 6 months out so we get a full year of pro forma earnings.

I’m not confident here. I am probably the most confident I have EVER been about a stock from a fundamental earnings perspective in 19 years of playing the markets. Many of which were as a market maker.

Fortune favours the brave. Gla.

Does anyone have a view on what cash balance may be if they do release half year update.

The product they delivered to the dhsc in q1 will obv have been a net cash drain via working capital. Do you guys think this will have been mitigated by cash inflow from the other sources or would we expect to see a decline in the cash balance from year end?

I’m undecided. I think a flat cash balance would be a positive but it’s pretty hard to forecast as cost must have increased as they forecast 40 percent ebitda margins for the year. On that basis and assuming a decent cash conversion from ebitda we could see flat cash but I would also not be surprised (and we should probably prepare for) a cash outflow in the first half until the dhsc pay up and allow is the reduce the accounts receivable line in the balance sheet working capital.

Remember the radio silence just before last years contract news. Feels a bit the same? Sometimes silence can be deafening.

:) a shrinking violet.

I feel like that and I voted Tory (including for bozo) at every single election and local election for nearly 25 years. I can only imagine what non torys think.

Remember kids. Freedom day is based on on data and not dates. Bozo will not be rushed! Oh…..

Lying, cheating, incompetent fat prick.

Now that’s a decent partner!!!! Cooling and anti bacterial uses. Tights, gym wear, sports wear. hUGE.

Gonna hurt to be short today!

Even if they were available you would still have to isolate as rule change doesn’t come into force until 16 august

Another bozo balls up

We are doing more nhs funded testing now than in December and almost back to the January peak. Scarily we are also pretty close to capacity in the nhs side. all the positives are now also testing for variants which was not case in jan.

So we have promate, snpsig, and winterplex in the wings as people in government are clearly starting to panic about flu season in the autum. We also have day 2 and day 8 private sector testing which was not case last year or earlier this year.

Pcr is dead. It’s over. Yeh, right!! This think is gonna fly sooner or later.

Ring ring
“Good morning, Novacyt group how may I help you”
“ hey. It’s Bob here from the dhsc. Can I speak to someone in your sales department urgently…..”
“Sorry air all of our sales team are busy serving our valued customers and we have a strict ‘dont deal with ****s’ policy here at Novacyt. Good day”
Click brrrrrrrrrr