Member Info for Soder

They should 100 percent be doing buy backs!! I would fully expect that to happen next year and they should do it at the expense of a dividend.

Harbour will already be below 1.5x net debt ebitda on pro forma basis.

Last reported net debt was 2.7bn as of end of may. They had been running that down by 100m a month since March. Capex this year is back ended - they spent 330m in first 5 months with another 750m due in the second half. But given commodity price strength I would expect year end net debt in the region of 2.6-2.8bn.

I calculate ebitda will be min 2bn even at the bottom end of the reduced production guidance for 2021. Next year with tolmount on line and production of 230k a day, and using the hedge profile they have made available, then using 68 spot oil (very conservative) and 60p a therm gas (it’s current at 100p) then you get 3bn of ebitda.

Hence leverage is going to be 1.3-1.4x at end of this year and will be sub 1x next year. This business should not reduce debt that anymore as it would have a very inefficient cap structure if it did.

Ffs jackin. Hit the ****ing REPLY button on a thread instead of posting a new thread every time you say something. You are filling up the entire board and it’s getting on my tits now. Rant over.

I wouldnt be surprised is this means we are maybe doing some m&a in the background and we get pro forma financials when this completes. However, change of ceo would be odd/off timing wise that we were buying simile and he was bolting pre integration.

If you have any confidence that we will hold the range around 70 on oil and gas north of 60p a therm (it’s currently 100p) you should sell your car, sell your house, sell your wife, sell your kids, sell whatever you can to buy this stock.

We are trading at like 2x 2022 ebitda which is beyond ridiculous. It’s very rare you get an invite to a free money party. You have a golden ticket. Don’t waste it.

We are approx 55 percent oil and 45 percent gas

When tolmount is online we will add another net 20-25 boe gas which will take us just over 50 percent gas and 50 percent oil assuming constant oil production.

But, this year we had 18k of deferred production due to planned maintenance shutdowns. That will be done this year. Add tolmount to that and you are likely talking 225-235k boe production per day next year.

That’s huge and it’s huge in the context of current oil and gas prices.

If we take the mid of that production at 230k a day that is 84m boe production for 2022. Of which we have hedged 44m boe already so just over 50 percent. The renaming 50 percent is at the mercy of super high oil and gas prices.

I have said before and will repeat. This beast is a CASH COW over the next 12 months. I know the biz super super super well and the SP upside from here is exceptional.

The prob is DBNO you dont hedge at the spot rate. The whole point of hedging is that you are locking in prices for future production.

You always mention the spot price. In reality the spot price is completely useless and merely for the benefit of people trading 1 pound a tick on their city index accounts.

The oil curve is in backwardation. You know what that means, right? The co12 contract on brent trades at 68 a bbl but either way I agree with you. It would be very very smart to hedge even in the high 60s.

31 117 vs 37 734

85 deaths

I will get more exited when you finally work out that you can just hit the reply button to make a comment on an existing thread and not keep starting anew thread simply to reply !!! Infact, if you work that out I may finally **** my pants with joy.

You really dont need to do much to understand it. Seek and ye shall find.

For this year (as per last presentation on 23 June, page 13)

For h2 2021 they have hedged 13m bbl equivalent valent of gas at 50p a therm.

Using an fx rate of 1.4 and the fact 1 bbbl oil equivalent is 58.14 therms you can a comparable price per bbl equailvanet for gas of $40.7 for the hedges portion.

At 100p current per therm that is $81.4 per barrel.

If we take the mid point of pro forma guidance at 190k boe per day that is total production of approx 34.7m boe for the second half of 2021. Approx 45 percent of this is gas. So that gives gas products cation of about 15.6m boe for h2. Hence, they have approx 83 percent of gas production hedged at 50p a therm.

Gas is largely sold on a a Contractual basis. So for next year we also have 25m boe hedged at 47p a therm. And even in 2023 we have 23m boe hedged at 47p a therm.

What is this telling me? It’s telling me we have sold gas on long term supply agreements. Which is industry standard.

Tolmount is gas so will provide extra gas revenues we can sell higher when on stream.

But either way….given the production and a $16 opex per bbl falling to $13 next year we will still generate tons of cashflow even with seemingly low hedges. But on the gas side think of them as supply agreements rather than hedges.

Having given it some thought for the last hour there is no way he is retiring. He has been pushed after being unable to get the share price to reflect the valuation. The board is there to represent the best interest of shareholders and maximise shareholder value and sometimes to do that you need a change of leadership.

Onwards and upwards.

I think maybe gm took us as far as he could and this is a very strategic decision by the board. Note that amryt have a Nasdaq listing alongside the aim listing.

I would think a decent chance he is paying the price for the share performance. Net net neutral I think but does make you wonder why he would go in the middle of the dispute?

Would think this means the dispute is resolved before he goes in October.

Jumped or pushed? We will never know.

Is it possible that you could reply to a threat instead of starting a new one every time you reply to a post?

I dont know if you have been outside recently but people have been walking around freely for months…going to bars, restaurants, football, offices, shops, cinema, having parties etc

And what was the death rate today again?

You will be advised to get a test but it won’t be a legal requirement.

I dont agree that this will cause deaths at all.

Because companies that buy biotech don’t use Twitter to make their procurement decisions? Maybe.

Just hit a 16 year high

Who cares. Half production is gas and U.K. Nat gas prices hit a 16 year high this morning. Given your juvenile posting history I’m guessing you weren’t born the last time prices were here?

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing

It’s not tight. Fact check.

Where are you getting that data kitzie. Not what is being reported. After some heavy pcr tests from government run sites last weeks it’s fallen off last few days. BUT… cases, tests etc are just background noise for ncyt at moment. Travel travel travel.

That number of tests is dependent on nothing more than the number of people flying. That is going to remain high well into September.