Member Info for Soder

Capacity is going to be a big issue soon. The **** is about to hit the fan!!!

Total pcr test capacity is just over 600k
Yesterday 400k were done. But we can see from data that 100k pillar 1 tests were done out of 200k capacity.

As such you can assume that 300k pillar 2 tests were done out of a total processing capacity of 400k outside pillar 1.

That’s pretty close for comfort. Add on to that the holiday testing for day 2 and day 8.

Ladies and gents. We are ****ed. And the government need to see the light at the end of the tunnel is actually another train.

Not all of those are pcr

However pcr was over 400k yesterday

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing

Yeh that’s great. Unfortunately a virus will not stop its spread whilst we negotiate with the dhsc. Patience and time and the negotiating position are not the issue here. Infection, illness, hospitalisation and death are.

@whatnonewsyet spot on!!!

The dhsc should be named and shamed. GM should get his ass on sky news to make it perfect tly clear that a solution was agreed last year and they opted not to proceed. Will they wait until it’s too late again?

We as shareholders should also bombard media and political figures to make sure they are made aware that the dhsc has ****ed up….again. But that it’s not too late and they could still get HUGE POC testing capacity inside care facilities with winterplex alongside ahead of winter. But they need to act on this NOW!

I’m telling you…. I would not be surprised at all to see phase 2 relaunched with the dhsc. Those ****ers are shifting their pants on winter this year and cannot be caught with their pants down again. The time to act is NOW and not rush something through in the autumn when it’s too late.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9787329/Lethal-mix-Covid-flu-common-cold-virus-winter-push-NHS-breaking-point.html

Current Oil equity valuations here would be supported by 50 dollar oil and below.

It’s a preliminary compromise. That is GREAT news for stability. We need opex+ unity to remain intact as the last thing we need is a px war.

Jet fuel demand from Europe over coming months is going to be huge and will put a rocket through oil px. 80 next stop.

The data

Crude. Draw of 7.896m bbl
Gasoline. Increase 1m bbl vs estimate 2m draw
Distillates. We nor’easter 3.6m bbl
Crude imports. Increase 346k bbl per day
Crude production. Increase 100k bbl day

As I said… big headline draw but oil lower. Why? All in the detail even though crude inventories now at lowest since January 2020. I think it’s a neutral report overall.

- us crude production up 100k bbl per day over the week. That’s the fourth week in sex it has been up and the highest production since may 2020
- big drop in gasoline demand from the record 10m bbl a day in early July however that includes the 4 July holiday spike so perhaps expected
- diesel stockpiles up and highest since April
- total petroleum stocks up for first time since June

Overall the hill case for oil in tact from this data.

Much love, soder x

Eia is the official data out on Wednesday but the API data comes out Tuesday evenings. That reported an estimated 4m bbl draw and Analyst consensus for EIA data is also for a 4m bbl draw. But…. inventory forecasting is finger in the air nonsense. The analysts never get it right and the mkt just ignores whether the inventories are high or lower than consensus. What is useful is the additional Info you get re demand on oil product side. For example, the main thing to look for this week will be gasoline demand. Last week seasonal demand for gasoline was a 3 decade high. If that is sustained along with strong demand for diesel and oil for industrial uses at the same time as demand for jet fuel should be starting to rise then it is very bullish for oil.

Given operating cost per barrel in the low teens it’s ****ing awesome. We have a cashflow break even in the low 30s. Cha cha cha ching!! Free money.

Using those hedges (px and volume) and 230k production for 2022 with a spot oil price of 68 (yes 68!!!! That’s how conservative I am being) and a spot gas price of 50p a therm (it’s currently trading well north of 60p so again super conservative) I get to ebitdax of $3.1bn for 2022. That’s using 13$ opex per bbl for next year.

So in answer to the op questions….there is tons of upside.

So for next year 2022 they have 19m bbl oil hedged and 25m boe gas. Assuming 230k daily production next year and 55% oil and 45 percent gas that is 42 percent of oil production hedges for next year and 67 percent gas.

Hedged prices are 61 for oil and gas at 47p a therm which in barrel of oil equivalent terms is 38.26 using usd/gbp fx rate of 1.4.

That’s not how hedges work at all. They are options with set dates. They do t have the schedule of those options but gimme 2 mins and will tell you want it us as percent of production for both oil and gas production.

You know share prices reflect the fundamental valuation of a company over the medium term. The ‘city’ don’t just picks number and nail it to a donkeys ass!!!

I guarantee you. I mean I actually GUARANTEE you that come march next year this is at least 50 percent higher!! Why?

Cos even taking a ****ty 200k boe production for 2022 (more likely it will be 230-240k boe) and assuming oil prices tank back into the low mid 60s this biz will be doing over $2.5bn of ebitda a year. Assuming 1.1bn of capex again and given we pay no take and just 100m cash interest in our debt we will be making over ONE BILLION DOLLARS of free cash flow a year. A company cannot just hide that on the balance sheet or stick it in a bin and burn it.

But either way, assuming net debt at year end 2021 of approx 2.2bn and forecast 2022 ebitda of 2.5bn you have an enterprise value of 7bn dollars (taking current mkt cap and converting to usd is $4.8bn)

That gives an ev ebitda of 2.8x and that is before the 1bn of cashflow.

Find me any company, on any market, in any industry that can convert 40 percent of ebitda to free cash, with 1bn of free cash, with leverage sub 1x, with global scale… that trades at 2x ev ebitda and I will write you a cheque for 100k and send in the post.

All aboard the free money express. Buy. Sleep. Wake up in March min 50 percent richer.

Honestly it’s just the creditor overhang technical holding this down. It will eventually clear and this is just an easy easy easy investment. Like it’s practically free money if you can just tuck it away and ignore for 6-9 months. Trades like this rarely come along.

Company performing v v well. The oil and gas price at multi year highs. Pro forma production above 200k boe a day and thumping off cash. What’s not to like? All the people trashing it have never once given a single justification based on fundamental analysis of the financials.

The fact is this is trading at half price. If you think oil holds above 60….yes 60!!! Then buy. Tuck away. Go sleep for 6 months.

Oil biz can a very very very easy to model. And even easier when this big with such diversified production as even if you have a field shut down it won’t impact the overall biz to such a degree as an enquest or tullow. Imagine if jubilee was off line for tullow?! Would be big issue. Not the case here as we 4x the size of tullow in terms of production. We also have 1.5bn less debt. But tullow trades at like 5.5x ev ebitda versus harbour at 3.2x. Looking forward we are trading at sub 2x ev ebitda using analyst consensus for next year. That’s not logical or sustainable. Patience. I promise this will be min 50 percent higher by March next year. My re likely it’s close to double your money.

Former holder. I held for many years and kicked outlaw 40s and Allier this year. Tbh i deliberated with myself for a long time whether to do that. But…was kicking myself I did not sell in 50s last year. It’s been a ride for sure and I still lost money but single percentage numbers.

I am not ruling out getting back in but not until we see what are the next steps from the company and oia. This is no longer a mine investment, it’s a potential litigation play. That’s a whole new ball game. It’s also a potential administration play as I am yet to be convinced that the oia cannot make a play to reclaim to the balance sheet cash adjustment Nader the terms of the investment agreement. But, even if they don’t this can go much much lower as suing the socialist state of Spain with it’s manyana manyana approach to business is going to be a multi year **** show. Who is going to fund that?

Lol. Ramp. Tool.

And before you say they could sell it to a developer…retortillo has a population of…..198… that not thousand. That’s one. Nine. Eight. And the whole of Salamanca province has 330k and that has been in decline for years as no jobs there. No mine. No jobs. No land value. No hope.

Yeh I have an idea. A land bank on top of a uranium mine which can’t get a uranium mining licence…. It’s worth……zero.