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I mean, the second half of this year could be a monster if the stars align. It’s not even like we are chasing new tech or r&d. We already did the hard part. Now we just have to sell the tests.

Phase 2. Or a version of it. With the dispute settled by replacement Winterplex product, procured by regional nhs trusts and not centrally by the dhsc. I’m nailing my hat to that mast.

Their earnings transcript says they expect a “SIGNIFICANT UPLIFT” has n demand in the third quarter due to travel testing and have already seen “A MARKED UPTICK” in testing volumes in July.

Ther is no way, and I literally mean NO ****INg WAY that if they are seeing surge demand in testing and forecasting a bumper second half that we are not seeing the same.

If you didn’t laugh you would cry…

Just released h1 trading update. Revenue for h1 around £37.3m and ebitda of 11.2m. They have net cash position now as all debt paid off. Cash is 17.2m. Importantly they state “STRONG BIAS TO H2 EXPECTED GIVEN WEIGHTING AND GROWTH IN TRAVEL RELATED COVID-19 TESTING REVENUES!!!!!

Stock up 11 percent this morn and mkt cap now £120m.

So there enterprise value is 120-17.2 = 102.8.

Novacyt will mirror this. Our cash dwarves this and we sell in a quarter what they do in a half year. We are essentially double their size. But our mkt cap is 235m and our last reported cash is 90m. Let’s take that 90 and assume we made no cash in H1 to be conservative. So our enterprise value is 235-90 = 145m. If our cash balance grew during h1 to say 110m our EV is 125m so not much about source bio.

And we are bigger, we have pcr, LFT, snpsig, much more r&d. But we trade no far from source bio!!! Go figure. Dispute this you have liberum coming out saying source bio share price is too cheap and does not reflect the earnings. What about us??!!!

It’s coming people. It’s def coming.

Saint….it’s def possible. All I know is that flu ?? s being mentioned more and more and now across the pond too. If that is the case I can’t find that the dhsc/nhs need to test has been filled anywhere else.

As long as that need exists, and it still does, phase 2 surely still on cards. Or at least under the nhs framework agreement rather than central procurement.

Either way, you are talking elevated testing well into next spring.

Wti through 72. You really have to be the worst chartist / technical analyst I have ever encountered

Decent risk reversal in US since mkt opened.

From the last burial tender notice for phase 1 of the dhsc contract. The below is as per the DHSC very own words.

“ 2) DHSC needs to acquire POC testing goods as a matter of extreme urgency. The urgency is further amplified by the approaching flu season and the need for an immediate testing solution which allows medical practitioners to distinguish common flu or Covid-19;”

Now….Why would that be different this year? Does anyone have any intel that the nhs has put in other alternatives instead of the additional 700 q machines and a boat load of winterplex?

The need is clearly still there for this winter. If Novacyt are not filling that need, who is?

Should read 10m. Not 109

Also Ryanair released today. The airline expects to have flown around nine million passengers through July, at the top of a previous forecast range of seven to nine million, with up to 109 million predicted to fly during August.

Let’s also remember what the dhsc used as their justification for securing winterplex supply last year. Was something along lines of securing supply before it was taken by other countries. What’s changed? Not much!

I have said it before and will repeat…just an opinion, but I would not be surprised at all of phase 2 was bought back from the dead. Winterplex is crucial for pillar 1 and they can’t assume a flu case is flu. Has to be tested. Witty has said several times recently he is worried about flu resurgence this year.

I posted this in another chat but worthy of a thread of its own. Personally I have MASSIVELY underestimated the volume of private pcr that will be needed over the rest of 2021. Below is just 1 airport and yes the big one but if we stay out of lockdown and air travel remains open the number of daily private pcr tests done is going to be greater than the number of daily government tests easily! Just trying to get my head around it. I think the stars are starting to line up again.

Heathrow reporting first half results this morning. Have said passenger numbers of 3.9m in first half which is 75 percent down year on year. BUT…. And this is huge for the private PCR market. They have forecast 21.5m for the full year. So they expecting a truly HUGE 17.6m/551 percent rise in second half passenger volumes. WOW. All needing at least 1 private PCR test on return.

For sure the government will keep the travel testing requirements for at least until the end of this year.

Heathrow reporting first half results this morning. Have said passenger numbers of 3.9m in first half which is 75 percent down year on year. BUT…. And this is huge for the private PCR market. They have forecast 21.5m for the full year. So they expecting a truly HUGE 17.6m/551 percent rise in second half passenger volumes. WOW. All needing at least 1 private PCR test on return.

For sure the government will keep the travel testing requirements for at least until the end of this year.

Sorry should say the airport data is not all daily. Some is over this weekend - Friday to monday.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9822003/Six-million-face-holiday-trauma-Spain-Greece-join-French-restrictions.html

6m from Greece and Spain alone.

That article also gives some daily data.

Today the following will have the below arrivals:
Gatwick 60k passengers on 260 flights
Heathrow 60k
Bham 11k passengers on 59 flights
Luton 17k
East mids 254 flights
Manchester 958 flights
Stanstead 1330 flights

No matter where you come from (excluding domestic) everyone of those passengers need at least 1 ‘day 2’ pcr test.

There is some amazing data in that article that should blow people’s minds. EasyJet will fly 135k brits A DAY over this weekend. Then, Gatwick will do 25k-27k passengers A DAY on 260 daily flights up from 15 during lockdown.

If we have 25 per cent mkt share of the private mkt in U.K.and we are cleaning up over the next months. Forget the dhsc. This is real money.

Most won’t need a pcr to leave now as diy le jabbed. And obv the passenger data by airline will include all countries and both legs of a journey.

Useful info re 737 use so my number there is overstated. But sounds like number of flighting landing here per day massively understated.

…. Just read a piece in the mail (don’t judge me) re airports being full as the remaining schools broke up yesterday. I am lucky enough to hopefully heading off to Majorca in a few weeks. First world woes, but man I feel I need it. Anyway, just got me thinking about how everyone one of those at the support will need AT LEAST one PCR as part of that trip depending upon vaccination status. So how many private pcr tests would that be over the next 6 weeks?

The caa data is only up to date for May be I am going to do some digging as I think Ryanair and easy jet etc do release passenger numbers. But really crudely….

A 747 hold 600 people
Assume a happy returning flight in the month is 80 percent full
Across all U.K. airports how many daily flights are coming in from tui, easyJet, Ryanair etc etc. I am just picking a number…. Let’s say 100!? Anyone know if that is miles away? I genuinely have no clue.

Anyway 100 flight x 600 capacity x 80% full = 48k people every day for next 6 weeks obliged to buy a day 2 pcr. Say we have 30 percent market share. That’s 14.4K tests a day for next 6 weeks (42 days) = 604.8k tests we could be doing. What do we make net per test? If a tests costs 75 quid you have to think our ebitda per test is 5 quid? That would be 3m quid if ebitda right there. In one month. Excluding any foreign sales, and snpsig sales, any nhs sales, any LFT sales, cruise ship sales, oil rig sales etc etc

Anyone have any colour to firm this up on any of the following.
- no of flights landing or passengers arriving in U.K. at moment?
- our gross and net we make per test sold in the private mkt. it has to be higher than higher volume dhsc sales.
- what mkt share we have of travel testing space?

This happens all the time during commissioning. It’s actually very rare you dont encounter issues at this point in brining a new field on line but you just hope the issues are with the equipment rather than the geology. Equipment can easily be replaced or fixed, but I f the well doesn’t flow as you expect or maintain pressure then you can be really ****ed.

It’s def not a case of flicking a switch and hey presto you turn the field on. Lots of variables and diff prices of subsea and surface equipment that all need to compliment each other to achieve optimal controlled flow.

As previously said, 5 months delay in this is really not an issue given how big a company we are now. Do you remember when kraken and greater Stella were bought online by enquest and Ithaca. They had massive issues to start. Was eventually resolved but they needed the cashflow immediately from those fields purely to survive. It was touch and gofer them for a few months.

Crude is a global benchmark with regional price variations as it is transportable. Gas is a complete local market as it’s more difficult to stick of a ship and transfer it across the world. Hence Henry hub gas prices completely irrelevant. You need to look at North Sea prices as guess were our production is…..the North Sea.

https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5101974

This shows the current curve. Front end v v high and through winter 21. The number is pence per therm.

To get to a barrel of oil equivalent (thus make a like for like comparison with oil) you need to convert it to usd using this as gbp fx rate and the conversion that 1 therm = 0.0172395 bbl oil equivalent.

Eg 90p is 0.9 x 1.38 (fx rate) = $1.242 per therm. Then 1.242 / 0.0172395 = $72 barrel of oil equivalent.

U.K. gas prices have pretty much doubled this year FYI and remain very very high.

capisce?

4K? That’s not a stock trade!!! That’s a bar tab. ;)

What technique is that? Sounds like a winner

I disagree!!! Being long this stock is not about first half earnings. It’s not about this years earnings, or next year, or even the year after. This company has the potential to be a multi billion dollar business operating on a truly global scale. You do t just build that overnight. If you believe the story and trust the management just buy in and be an investor in something that has the potential to multi bag if you have the patience.

In many ways, AIM was the wrong market for heiq given the impatient, fast money, dream chasers who have no ability to think beyond why the share price is down “today”.

I’m in here as I think their products will become recognised globally over the next few years. Like goretex. Like thinsulate. Etc etc.

If you want a fast buck maybe people should go punt on a wildcat oil stock. This is a business being constructed piece by piece and not a casino company that could lose it all on one stupid or risk strategic decision. The IP and tech is phenomenal and this is just the start of the story. IMO it was become an ASOS like return of the years and I will happily sit here and watch PATIENTLY as this pieces are put together as I am an investor and not a punter.