Member Info for Soder

Should have made clear. Tullow are the lead operator on orinduik. Eco a minority partner with total and the Qataris.

It’s a field with huge potential. Like the best economics in the global oil industry at the moment.

Key Shareholder list is available on the investor section of harbours site.

Post merger (day 1) EIG hold 36% of which all is subject to a 12 month lockup. Then former eig investors have 34% which has a 6 month lockup and creditors own 18%

There is a reason why lots of analysts have sells on tullow. Too much debt. But it does divide opinion. Tullow was saved by the oil rally. Without it the shares would be ****ed.

Concord px target 60
Investec px target 75
Jefferies. Px target 38
Jp Morgan. Px target 46
Hsbc px target 44

If you think tullow is a long you are banking on them drilling Guyana next year? For a trade this one….don’t bet the house!!! Eco Atlantic. I think they will (and eco recently said also) take advantage of high oil price and cashflow to announce a drill plan on Orinduik. The moment that news hits eco Atlantic will fly. Like literally fly. They do t have to drill or announce oil. Just announced a drill plan. They own 15 percent of orinduik and its next door to the huge finds exxon have made right in the seeet spot targeting oil in Cretaceous. Eco are fully funded for that drill which will occur in 2022 with this oil price and after tullow got its refi done.

Away from that Savannah energy (currently suspended) has potential to be a multi bagger. Was trading at half price anyway and they are trying to buy some African assets and a pipeline. Depending on if/how that deal gets done that could be HUGE.

San Leon also v interesting as will return a lot of cash to investors this year.

I am biggest in Savannah, then harbour, then eco at the moment.
Just my thoughts.

Jefferies. Buy. Target price 30p reaffirmed.

I mean this is v simple stuff. Like v simple. How can you be invested in the stock market if you don’t know that and how to work it out. Lambs to the slaughter.

I am excited by a company that produces ONE HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS a month bottom line free cash flow with a ****ty hedge book which rolls off after the first half.

The hedge book for the second half is on lower volume and higher price. Given spots prices for both oil and gas are way way higher than the first half what does that mean? It means they are going to throw off even more cash in second half.

Excited? I have a semi at least.

This is a low risk, low vol way of playing the oil price. Buy. Park. Kip. Wake up richer at year end. I like those stories.

It dropped as fast money retail saw a headline and did not see the wood for the trees. They sell. Then the smart money goes ok “100m free cashflow a month. A hedge book that is much smaller in second half and spot oil at 75. Ok I’ll take those shares mr dumb ass PI”

Given how cheap this stock trades and the creditor overhang a clear message should be given to management **** the dividend.

Spend 300-400m on doing a buy back. That’s 8-10 percent of the shares outstanding. Creditors were left with 18 percent at close. A buy back that size will clear them up and drive this price higher into and through 2022.

They have the cash. And the cash will only be growing.

In h2 we only have 9m bbl oil hedged at 57. Assuming 200k per day for second half and half oil and half gas that will a just under half of production hedged. This means we can be selling the other 9m bbl of oil at 73-75 (assuming oil prices hold) and cashflow will really start to ramp up.

On the gas side we have 13 boe hedged at 50p a therm. This is about 70 percent of production. 50p is equivalent to 40$$ a bbl assuming fox at 1.38. I the first half we were hedged at 35$$ a bbl so that an extra 5$ per boe of gas for H2 that we were not getting in h1. Plus the spot has price is now 75p a therm which is 60$$ boe so another huge boost for the second half.

This is really going to start to throw off cash in the second half.

Buy back shares. Take out the creditors. Turbo charge the SP.

Morgan Stanley. Attractive. Px target 26p.

Will post their targets as they refresh this morning.

Stifel. Nav u changed. Px target 26p
Barclays. “Steady start”. Overweight. Px target 30p
RBC. Think may be neg sentiment on headlines but px target still 33p
Cannacord. Hold. Px target 24p

Even running at the bottom of guidance so 200k per day and at 16 per bbl opex. With our ****ty hedges…

I’m getting pro forma ebitdax above 2bn for the year. Free cashflow is running at more than 100m a month.

So for next year when our ****ty hedges are rolled off and with planned shutdowns not happened you are talking well north of 2.5bn ebitda.

For h2 21 cashflow will be more than 100m a month given tolmont and better spot prices as only 9m are hedged so you get all the benefit of the 75 dollar spot price.

Run the numbers. See the wood for the trees. This is super cheap and making tons and tons of free cash.

Blades man you absolute jebend. How is 2.7bn net debt not diff to pmo? The bizz just doubled you moron. Debt is reducing at 100m per month. Stop trying to push your agenda as you just look a tool.

Doh. Ignore me ****ty ev analysis. I forgot to do fx translation as mkt cap in gbp.

Ev in usd is approx 8bn and ebitda at 2bn will be 4x. Still cheap cheap. Rap with 100m dollar a month free cashflow.

Why so many of you just hate?

Exactly. At the end of March net debt was 2.9bn and it’s now 2.7 at end of may. Even after supposed ****ty results we are making ONE HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS of free cashflow per month.

Let that sink in. And that with our supposed ****ty hedges.

Wtf are you in about?!

200m of FCF since end of March. Net debt now 2.7bn. When debt gets paid down what does it create…..equity value!!!!

These were planned shutdowns. And still forecasting to be in the range of 200k to 215k for year production- albeit at lower end.

Even at the the lower end and with the reporters hedges and opex this is a 2bn plus ebitda biz and trading at like 3.3-3.5x ev ebitda. Do you even know what that means? It’s means it’s cheap!!

Ev = mkt cap plus net debt = 3.9+2.7= 6.6
Ebitda = approx 2bn. Will run a number in my model when I get out of bed.

Inventories at year end looks pretty high at 29.88m. Especially versus trade payables and accrued invoices of 8+5 = 13m (note 31). So it looks like they were still building up inventory for the dhsc for q1 sales.

I would think these inventories will be lower now but we have had to pay for the goods (this a cash outflow for our trade payables) and we know we have not received money from dhsc for these inventories via invoiced q1 sales.

Also trying to get my head around it. In the management report (not the accounts) note 2.9 it says “if the claim under the limited assurance warranty is successful then management best estimate of the settlement cost is up to a maximum of 19.753, the timing of any outflow is dependent on settlement of the dispute”

So I think you are right.

I think this means the dhsc are saying they want some money back for paid invoices and also refusing to pay for some part of invoiced goods.

I think we are saying that’s BS and not only do we not owe you 19m but we want our 23m on top plus what we invoiced you in 2021.

It’s odd the dhsc have continued to pay other parts of the same contract and not netted off when they paid us 47m in q1 21.

Actually this is it

At year end the dhsc owed us 71.883 million. This was invoiced but sits in trade creditors in the cashflow statement. Of this 71.883m, 23.957m was past due and forms the disputed items. Since year end the dhsc have settled the remaining balance and paid us 47.926m. That’s not too shabby!!

As such the overdue balance the dhsc have not paid for (from 2020 invoiced revenue) is 23.957m. Of this amount, ncyt have taken a provision of 19.788m.

That’s pretty positive as shows that it’s only a small portion in dispute and they still paid us 47m for other parts of the contract.

I would as such expect the current cash number to be very healthy.

Page 25 provisions. “At year end 23.957m of the year end receivables we’re overdue due to the contract dispute. Management expects to recover these balances in full, this is a significant judgement”

Is the difference between the 19.788m provision and the overdue balances the impact of VAT?

Exactly this. And then the U.K. 1 product was the replacement product which they have said they won’t pay for. And now they have too much this the comment that dhsc likely don’t need any more for the rest of the year.