Member Info for Soder

I’m not an account rant but know my way around them. I’m just going through now as only looked at the rns earlier. Are their any accountants that can go over also or maybe answer some questions as they come up on this thread.

Some things that instantly stick out.

Note 6: page 29. “Management considers it to be more likely than not that the year end balances are recoverable. £47.926m of the year end receivables balance of £71.883m has been rescued in 2022”

We saw that payment but it’s reassuring that a payment has been made which should further boost cash. Although the Q1 invoiced product has not been paid so net net is it right to assume maybe cash neutral rather than a butn year to date?

A market by its very definition is just a place where like minded people go to buy and sell a common product. People go to billings gate for fish. To New Covent Garden for flowers etc etc. And people come to AIM with fast money, impatiently chasing a get rich quick dream…and that drives prices.

Market makers know that a huge proportion of AIM participants have absolutely no clue what they are doing and what the fundamentals of a particular business are. As such it is a market driven by sentiment and emotion instead of fact and intellect.

Aim has the highest proportion of small sized, fast money, retail investors of any market globally. Very little sticky money from institutional involvement. That by its very definition drives prices. So you are wrong.

I think it’s very clear that the aggressive actions of the AIM market spiverati over the last few months have had a profound and lasting impact on novacyt. The market makers insistence to drop it like a rock every day has destroyed investor confidence in this stock for their own gain.

Even when the now published financials and fundamentals scream it’s cheap and buy buy buy there is no follow through bid from real money INVESTORS. Why? The day trader spivs and greed of the market makers have destroyed value for shareholders and investors to such an extent the name is tainted and will take a long long time to recover.

The quicker we can get off this toss pot, dream chasers casino AIM the better.

Buy. Target price 570p

They have adjusted their model and for 2021 forecast 98m of revs and 48m ebitda. In 2022 they forecast 80m of revs and state “on this basis the shares are trading at 5x ebitda (provision adjusted) which does not factor in much terminal value in our view”

Their model matches my back of the envelope with cash at year end of ~ 110m and then cash at year end 2022 of 145m.

Obviously this is provision and dhsc adjusted. If we get that invoice pud it’s mo money mo money.

So they saying even after dhsc stripped out this biz trades at 5x. I r have seen transactions in this sector at 15-20x revenues, never mind ebitda.

In my mind it’s simple. If the SP stays here because the mkt makers have killed off investor confidence to invest over the last few months then we are a sitting duck.

Sub 4 quid with that cash, those prospects, that innovation, we are a rounding error for a bigger player or corporate to buy us.

Also that’s with no dhsc for this year and from what I can make out no lateral flow inclusion.

So it’s a clean valuation.

Someone give me a counter argument regarding valuation versus current sp please. Genuinely interested to hear it.

100m sales. 40 percent ebitda margin gives 40m ebitda. Call it what…ev/ebitda range of 10-20x. Let’s take 10x.

Enterprise value = 10 x 40 = 400
Net debt = non exit at as its net cash = let’s be conservative and assume 50 percent conversion for this year = 20m.
=110m net cash position

= implied equity value of 400 + 110 = 510m
Approx no of shares = 70.5m
= price per share valuation £7.23

We’re are going higher. Much higher.

The dhsc dispute is for invoiced sales not paid. Your cash balance is secure. Cash has a value of cash. Therefore your valuation is a mockery.

Lift off.

Oh deos. Tell me. What are you actually looking for in the numbers. How will you tell if they are good or bad. Above or below market consensus. I don’t think you know what your doing do you? Oh dear. Shame.

You actually can’t say that at all - you don’t know what we are buying, what we are paying for it…and most importantly how we are paying for it.

Brokers are not some oracle of valuation. They use the same analysis tools we all do (or should do unless you are a tourist punter). Simply put, a company is worth the sum of it’s discounted future cashflows. It’s not rocket science. But either way, share price and fundamental valuation are two diff things especially on the spiv casino that is aim. The blind leading the blind down a garden path of “let’s dress up and play Wall Street, you can be gekko and ill be bud fox”

Peace.

Who are pmo? You are on the harbour board.

If your short you will get run over. Guaranteed.

Agree Karen.

2020 will be results with a provision for dhsc as I don’t think it is resolved. But at least we will know what the dispute is and be able to quantify.

Then it’s all about outlook and what they doing for 2022 and beyond. We should also get some update on LFT.

Confident.

Whenever there is hope. There is no hope. Or is that doubt?

The provide an opex per barrel equivalent across the portfolio. Under 15 dollar per bbl.

You get gas fields. You get oil fields. Most of the time you get gas with your oil.

Pearls and in case you have not noticed, oil companies are are currently global social pariahs. The majors are being FORCED (Literally forced!!!!- see recent shell court ruling and Exxon bird changes) to dump hugely cash generative assets for a pack of sweets and invest their cashflows in windmills.

The buyers of these assets are people like pmo. Pmo is not a target. But we can use this greenwashing to create a truly global oil and gas biz at multiples never seen in history. Assets are quite literally free and pay for themselves in just a few years.

We are def not in play. But I hope so much we are playing. Screw a divi. Let’s buying some more production and turn this baby into a behemoth.

“Soder baby”. I like it. :0

They provide certainty and visibility. Very strong certainty and visibility. I like certainty and viability. The market likes certainty and viability.

This is a new company that have never really given the market any forward guidance of strategy plan during the pmo reverse takeover. Not least because they wanted the creditors to take a haircut to their debt and take some shares to improve the balance sheet. To do this you can’t punt a bullish picture. However, I think we will get ALOT of detail on 23rd re the various assets, the plan for these, what they plan to do going forward. I think there will be a huge emphasis on the overall story and will show exactly what this business was is capable of in terms of cashflow.

My my model it’s currently trading at about 3.5x 2021 ebitda. It’s reasonable to expect that to normalise to 4-4.5x in short term. That gets you high 20s/low 30s.

The outlook for 2022 will be key thereafter. I think we get production up past 230k a day as planned maintenance we have this year won’t impact us. Opex per barrel will as such reduce from ~15 to ~12. We will hear about synergies between the 2 which will take out fixed costs. And we will hear about plans for free cash of which there will be plenty!

Personally I do not want a dividend. If I want a dividend I would buy bp. They should use the cash for buybacks and m&a. The share price is so low that buybacks a better use of cash for holders. And you can buy assets from the greenwashing majors for naff all at the moment which gives HUGE IRRs. Buy and build and break value that way. Do t waste money on a divi.

Matter? They are hedges. They guarantee a fixed price for a fixed volume. It’s good risk management coming out of a pandemic which saw oil prices more than halve as demand collapsed. I would say they matter?

I think the problems with this stock is not the company it’s the retail holders who still think it’s pmo. You want a taste y oil name with huge leverage and beta to the oil price. Harbour is not that. Maybe try enquest or pmo?

Harbour is large, diversified, has very low balance sheet leverage, has hedged production to minimise earnings volatility. It’s not pmo. It’s not a go go oil stock anymore.

It is undervalued and I think will bounce post results. But it needs the creditor technical to clear. Which will happen. But this will not trade with an oil price beta of 1. Why? Simple. The spot price of oil is irrelevant to a company with half of its production in gas and then half of its oil production hedged. That’s just 25 percent of overall top line exposed to the oil price. Peanuts.

So… at the midpoint of pro forma production guidance we are hedged as follows as per the last release. Will be actually higher now and at better levels but this is what we have so far.

For 2021
Total production 207k boe a day
=74.52m boe a year

50% oil and 50% gas

Oil hedges are 22m bbl at 58. That’s 60 er cent of ALL oil production this year.
Gas hedges are 23m boe at approx 35.8 a boe. That’s 75 percent of ALL gas hedges.

Given this, why are you constantly ****ing yourself off over the daily movement of the SPOT in the oil price?

Cool story, bro.