Member Info for Soder

If they did why does everyone keep going on about liquidity and there being no immediate trigger for default? This is a technical event of default. Sure they can get a waiver from bondholders for it but the bonds are held by distressed debt holders. They will probably want to take the keys in return.

If you can’t get auditors to sign off your accounts as a going concern that would be an event of default under the bonds. That would be trigger.

That rns seems to confirm the directors and auditors would not be able to sign off on the company being a going concern without a restructuring/scheme being implemented to address the liabilities ASAP.

De shaw most likely own bonds. Short equity vs long bond. Playing the cap structure trade.

I bought my first shares in 60s last year. But I really don’t have to prove that or care whether you believe me.

I am so under water I just hold for a punt as I quite like the game. This stock is just part of my portfolio. My experience on AIM is that for every one that makes 2-3x my money I get one that loses 50-70 percent. But it’s fun to play the markets. I have no axe to grind but I know distressed debt and restructurings very very very well. Especially with regards to the U.K. level framework as it’s very simple versus Spain, France etc

Bonds are now held by distressed funds. They bought most of those bonds at HUGE discounts to face value. Even now they trade at 85p in the pound. I think a lot traded at 50-60p in the pound and even lower.

If you think you can get your money back (ie 100p) via forcing a default that’s a decent IRR for these funds.

Some people on here are very naive. The distressed bond holders sole MO is to use their secured position in the cap structure to get their money back and more. They don’t care if there is an amigo business after and they don’t care about shareholders.

Bright house was a similar situation where it was taken over by distressed funds who just ran the credit book own to repay themselves.

My source is from the bondholders group.

The bondholders can’t liquidate the company? Not sure what you mean?

The bond holders will claim an event of default has occurred under the terms of the bond indenture. As such they can demand immediate repayment. There are probably several technical clauses in the doc that may permit them to claim and event of default has occurred.

As the company can’t repay within the stated period they would be paid n the driving seat.

Yes hoolihan lokey. I am actually surprised they are not co flicked as they worked for the company during the failed sale process last year. Now working for bond holders but it will mean they know this biz inside and out.

Bonds are little changed since scheme failed which is unsurprising as they had already turned over into distressed fund ownership so they won’t sell as likely see par recovery in a worst case scenario where the book is wound down. Best case they take all the equity as they provide new liquidity(money) to the business in a restructuring and wipe out shareholders. Bonds holders have the option to do that as they are structurally and contractually senior to the equity.

I am but it’s a punt for me. The bonds now largely sit with distressed debt funds. Some have a long on the bonds versus a short on the equity so playing cap structure arbitrage. Those funds are skilled in restructuring and have deep pockets for lawyers and advisors. My experience in that usually means shareholders get screwed as the hedge funds take the keys.

People have questioned the trigger for insolvency here. There will be so many that get be pulled from the bond docs by the bond holders. That doc is public and would advise people to get a copy if you are a decent sized holder.

It already has. Unaccountable politicians working with unelected scientists. The whole thing is truly frightening. I am not a conspiracy theorist at all but I object to having my life controlled any longer. The curve is flat. The nhs is saved. The vaccine was were our passport to freedom. So what’s the problem?

Tbh it’s the perfect situation. Cases up across the country and vaccines being shown to stop serious illness. But, importantly for us as ncyt shareholders it does show that we will need testing infrastructure in place well beyond this year as the virus mutations and peoples antibodies are closely followed by healthcare professionals across the world.

History has shown that once people have tasted absolute power it is hard to make them give it up.

Just read your thread re asking if anyone can value the loan book.

I posted last week that a large group of bondholders have hired advisors who will represent them as a group. They n this process the advisors will approach the company and state they have a mandate to represent x% of the secure debt holders and are wanting to engage with management on strategic options including possible restructuring outcomes. The advisors are there to ensure the best solution for bondholders ONLY. As they have a priority lien that usually means they will be ****ing shareholders. It’s highly unlikely the company have given the advisors inside information yet but that will happen and the bondholders will be taken across the wall and prevented from trading the bonds given they will be insiders. The advisors and then the bondholders who have agreed to be taken over the wall will have access to company financials including the loan book.

This asymmetry of information and the fact bondholders are organised and in a group talking with one voice is key. Given amigo has many many many PIs it would be difficult to pull a group together. However, bybrook are very familiar with distressed companies and restructurings. I dont know if they are a cross holder and may be somewhat compromised (ie they own both bonds and equity) that may stop them being part of the bondholders group but as you are a large equity holder I think it is worth you reaching out to them directly. You should also ask the company if they have shared info re the loan book with the bondholders advisors and if so request this information is made public for the benefit of all stakeholders.

The problem we have as shareholders and in this case as fragmented PI

Title:
Detection kit N501 mutation in the S gene of SARS-CoV-2, which allows the identification of British, Brazilian and South African strains
Lot No: 13
II.2.2)
Additional CPV code (s)
33696200 Blood-testing reagents
II.2.3)
Place of performance
NUTS code: RO213 Iasi
Main site or place of performance:
MATERIAL WAREHOUSE HEADQUARTERS OF THE CONTRACTING AUTHORITY
II.2.4)
Description of the procurement:
N501 mutation detection kit, in the SARS-CoV-2 S gene, to identify British, Brazilian or South African strains, by allelic discrimination in RT-Real Time PCR, the kit to be compatible with FAM, HEX, fluorescents CY5, ROX of the Agilent AriaDX thermocycler. The kit should be compatible with the FAM, HEX, CY5, ROX fluorescences of the Agilent AriaDX thermocycler. (similar SNPsig® SARS-CoV-2 (N501Y) PCR SARS-CoV-2 mutation detection / allelic discrimination kit,
II.2.5)
Award criteria
Criteria below
Price
II.2.6)
Estimated value
Value excluding VAT: RON 1,680,000.00
II.2.7)
Duration of the contract, framework agreement or dynamic purchasing system
Duration in months: 28

Don’t speak the lingo but is part of this bigger tender a small snpsig contract in Romania? Maybe 300k?

Need to scroll down to relevant part.

https://ted.europa.eu/udl?uri=TED:NOTICE:186101-2021:TEXT:EN:HTML&src=0

II.2.4)
Description of the procurement:
Kit de detectie a mutatiei N501, in gena S a SARS-CoV-2, care sa permita identificarea tulpinilor britanica, braziliana sau sud-africana, prin dicriminare alelica in RT-Real Time PCR, Kitul sa fie compatibil cu fluorescentele FAM, HEX, CY5, ROX a termociclorului AriaDX Agilent. Kitul sa fie compatibil cu fluorescentele FAM, HEX, CY5, ROX a termociclorului AriaDX Agilent. (similar SNPsig® SARS-CoV-2 (N501Y) PCR SARS-CoV-2 mutation detection/allelic discrimination kit,
II.2.5)
Award criteria
Criteria below
Price
II.2.6)
Estimated value
Value excluding VAT: 1 680 000.00 RON

Just bumping this to the top if anyone wants a look at what I expect for 2021. 2022 production likely to be higher as we had scheduled downtime maintenance this year which took production off.

You are potentially looking at a company with 235-250k production next year with oil 70+/gas 50-60p a therm. Opex per barrel back towards 12-13$$ and a balance sheet comparable to the majors. Likely 1-1.5x net debt ebitda.

Im not a day trader or a punter so the daily and I tea day stock moves are irrelevant to me.

Come back in 12 months and let’s have this chat.

Tullow just issued 1.8bn of debt at 10.25 percent. That’s over 180m a year to service the interest on that bond. Away from that they have another 800m bond that pays 7% and that trades in the 80s. Why? Cos it’s a super high risk play with far far too much debt. If the oil price had not recovered the last 2 months tullow would be in restructuring right now. They got lucky. But to get the refi of their 21 and 22 debt maturities that had to pay a huge coupon on the debt which will eat up cashflows and stop capex and drilling and any hope of a dividend for many years. That’s a fact. Just cos the short term retail driven dream chaser doesn’t get that yet and is ramping the sp is just a short term thing.

There is a village somewhere missing it’s idiot.

Vitol don’t want the shares. They want the oil.

I think their involvement will be via debt secured against at the product. It’s limited downside as if we go Rita up they still have the oil reserves. It’s basically reserve based lending.

Biah bash bosh.

Enquest and tullow are over levered and given the debt they hold much more levered to oil price moves. This is not premier oil. This is harbour.

We are hedged and only ca 1.5x net debt to ebitda. We are never going to be a yeeee haaaaaw stock anymore. That was the old days. We are now more like a ftse 100 company with stable balanced and hedged cashflows. If you want to trade and punt e quest and tullow are fine. This is not them.

This comment is huge....

Part of the cash needed for the transaction will probably come from a trading company, which is likely to insist on the right to sell the oil produced in the Doba basin in exchange for making funds available.

Vitol giving us financing upfront for oil?