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Just started to add again just. The last 3 buys 30k 15k 15k me. Will start to layer in. The SP is so depressed they do t even have to drill or find oil. They just have to say they have a plan to and this will take off.

The judge has to follow the rule of law. He knows it. Even if he thinks the SOA stinks there is nothing he can do about it as it’s not for him to put personal preference and feeling on what is and isn’t fair. He is there to up hold and follow the law. The scheme was legitimate. The scheme was voted in favour by all parties. He can’t do Jack **** to stop it unless he gets the law changed.

I think the penny dropping that the contract was only for 150m. How much in reality can be being disputed? And how much have we lost from our valuation as a result. More than 2x the value of the contract. And like you said, the dhsc was never going to be the future of this company.

Below dated 22 may. India asking for all rapid test manufactures to get validated for supply in India

The U.K. government have said themselves they believe daily global LFT manufacturing capacity is 240m. They prob want to stuff effing around as India alone could swallow up give volumes.

https://www.icmr.gov.in/pdf/tender/Revised_EOI_for_Ag_kit_validation_22052021.pdf

Bluelight. I think that is the case too. In fa t I would be pretty sure if it. If it transpires thats is the case I think the sp could rally quite significantly. The mkt is pricing an emelemnt of doubt to the cash balance. My analysis was trying to show that even with that doubt and a scenario where we repay them cash it’s still cheap.

Personally if it’s as you suggest I do t give a toss about revenues that are now backward looking. If that cash balance is confirmed and bullet proof it’s a huge sigh of relief.

So the long and short of the analysis troublesome is that for that 150m contract I am assuming ncyt made just 22m in cash in 2020 and nothing in 2021 - Not a dime. So starting cash position is adjusted down from 91.8m to 66m and then in 2021 we make no dhsc sales. It’s a fair worst case?

The dhsc contract that is killing the sentiment was a 150m contract. From the dhsc > 25k spend records it looks like it was invoiced roughly 2/3 in q4 last year and 1/4 in q1 2021. Let’s assume that matches cash and not just sales although will be some timing differences.

It’s a crude and ridiculous analysis but let’s assume that the issue with dhsc is regarding rebates due as we sold product cheaper elsewhere. As such we are forced to pay them a ridiculous 50 percent back. We will also assume no sales to dhsc at all in 2022 (so wipe off the q1 sales in full).

What are we left with as a starting point for cash going into 2021? The co generated 16m of free cash in h1 2020 but in reality given the timing of our test launch this was all in the second quarter. Is it therefore fair to say that before that second 150m dhsc contract in late September we were a 15m a quarter free cash flow company in 2020? Taking the cash balance reported in the 2020 half year results of 18m and adding (2x15m) would get us to year end cash of 48m if we assume the dhsc contract never happened. So we can assume that the second 150m dhsc contract contributed 44m of free cash to the final year end cash balance of 91.8m.

Let’s pay the dhsc half the cash generated back which is paid 22m back and thus our year end 2020 cash balance would now be 66m.

Now let’s assume that we now made no sales to dhsc in q1 so we are just left with private and international. On a flat quarter by quarter basis sales this year would be (4x36.3) 145m. This gives no account for snpsig variant test sales, versalab growth, no LFT test and no growth in private or international sales. Oh and importantly no nhs sales of promate. Say ebitda margin is 50 percent for these sales which gives ebitda 72m. Assume that this ebitda is not converted to cash but they use it to invest in the biz. So cash remains at 66m at year end 2021.

At year end You are left with a biz holding 66m cash and that had ebitda of 72m. At 370p share price that is an enterprise value of 195m (mkt cap 261 minus net cash 66m) and an ev /ebitda multiple of 2.6x. That’s crazy cheap and that assuming we pay back the dhsc a pile of cash and ignore the sales we made in q1. Yeh but what about 2022 I hear you say? Ok so let’s assume this biz would be valued at 10x ebitda going forward. In reality the comps are 15-20x plus. In order to support the current share price valuation at 10x valuation multiple they would need to generate ebitda of 19.5m a year. On a 50 percent margin basis that’s sales of approx 40m annually or 3.3m every month or 770k every week.

Are we really saying that ncyt can’t make SALES of 770k per week in 2022?

I’m not sure if a warning to get the f out of the stock or grab a pair and sit tight. It’s def not just a random quote. There is something there.

There is no reason that comment would be a a selected comment for the advertised webinar. It’s irrelevant to the content of it and nothing to do with the issues.

Company. Not computer. Darn auto correct.

Is this a message? Very odd quote to send today?

https://mobile.twitter.com/NovacytGroup/status/1395791002842112004

They have another bank holiday on Monday so not sure if the exchange is open?

Oh poorinvestor. You really are what your name suggests aren’t you.

Are you on the wrong board? Court case?

Surely if they thought there was any more bad news to come around this dhsc issue they would have just kitchen sinked it all today? Get all the bad news out and let’s just get on with it?

I’m just scratching my head still re rns wording stating impact to revenues. Surely if was an issue that would impact cash they would have said? They would have to have said!?

I just can’t work this out as looks like they still received payments from dhsc. Wtf is going on.

Chris toffer. There is a timing diff between booking pnl and receiving payment so I would not be too worried about the 46 percent.

But as you say... why have they paid? This is all so odd and it’s quite frankly unacceptable for GM to sit there with his dick in his hand and not tell shareholders and the market what the issue is.

Shaun that’s not always true. You can invoice for goods shipped when payment not received. The money due sits as a line item in short term assets on your balance sheet. If that money is never received you can write it off but it won’t impact your initial cash position. The only way the cash is impacted is IF they are requesting we reap at them. Which may be what you are saying? If that is the case the wording on their 2 RNS announcements is horrific and they are being negligent and misleading by saying revenues.

Hey calamari

Exactly. But if you are investor (not a day trader) you have to believe in mean reversion. Ie that short term price moves will always revert towards to true value over time.

If that’s the level then it’s a short term technical chartist level. I dont do charts or day trading so have no opinion. But from a fundamental investment perspective 295 is nonsense.

Hey

It’s unaudited but I would say very confident it’s in the bank. But, it’s not impossible the despute may be around selling prices so they want some money back? However, if that was the case I would expect the rns and the last to say “may have a material impact to financials” and not “maybe have a material to revenues”. There is a huge difference. If it’s just revenues I am a bit, meh. So they adjust there backward looking pnl statement. Who cares. Not sure if you heard this one before...

Sales is vanity. Profit is sanity. Cash is reality.

But it holds very true.