Member Info for Soder

https://youtu.be/AMUr-teWAwg

It’s Friday. The pubs open inside Monday. We are not down. So why the hell not put a smile on it.

The free YouTube publicity is good too. Worth a watch in case you don’t know how promate and the genesig machines work. It’s like it says....a complete workflow solution.

https://youtu.be/SfBWanjuTKk

So pretty much every morning the tactic we see by the MM is to find the bid and then find how deep it is. It’s been fragile and with no depth at the open over recent weeks as even if you are a buyer you now think it goes lower so you wait and see it going lower. As such MM and shorters have been able to drop it through the bid and beyond v easily most days until they find that bid with depth to it later in the day. Initial selling brings out more selling from a combination of machine selling and weak retail hands.

I think those hands are close to being cleared. Those weak hands have had enough of the excitement and are largely now out. And the machines used yesterday to test the ultimate floor. The bounce was so quick and hard that I believe we found the floor.

Obv that is all from a technical and sentiment perspective. I am a fundamentalist but you have to appreciate both, especially on AIM, as it’s is basically a casino.

I feel good that we can start going through the gears next week and bounce a bit away from 400. Just my view and based on nothing more than feeling and experience of markets.

Wilson/gggg21 this has to be nonsense?!There is a vaccine. Why would you test for a headache. The oracle that is mirror1234 said so.

Seriously though, I have no clue how much excess pcr stock the dhsc may or may not have but looking at the daily pcr test data..... rates have not paused or called off since mid feb. It’s a total myth that we are slowing down the rate of pcr testing here. We have done 10m pcr tests since we released the trading update RNS. That’s a decent amount!!

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing

Eurostoxx and ftse futures both green. I know we dont track the market often but here’s hoping for some positive sentiment.

One thing about yesterday was it was ascension day in Europe and a bank holiday with most people out/on holiday - including the French. Given the French’s overriding desire to work less and chill more (am I generalising haha ) most of them also take today off to will be interesting to see what our French volumes look like. I would expect quiet.

Just to add, as you post is entitled ‘obvious’ which is rather ironic....Do you track the official U.K. government testing data? Yesterday (for the 12th) the U.K. reported 1.18m DAILY tests of which 326.5k were Pcr. So it’s OBVIOUS you are talking out your ass.

Also please just remember that’s just the U.K. but covid is a global problem and ncyt is a global company. You seen what’s happening in India? South America? The US? Try to open your mind to the fact the world is a bigger place than your home town of Cretinsville and show some respect for a test methodology and a company that probably contributed in keeping you alive the last 12 months.

Oh hello shortie. Pcr is not just a test methodology for covid. It was around before and will be around long after.

But with specific regard to covid as I think that all you care about as a shorter, how do you know your headache is just a headache in 12 months if you don’t test it to make sure your vaccine is still working? This vaccine has been around 5 months. 5 ****ing months!!!??? Think about that. If you don’t monitor it and the society it’s used in how do you know when boosters are needed. How do you know what mutations the boosters need to tackle. It’s not a game of pin the tail on the donkey. This is science. The virus is not static. Viruses mutate. We will need to be able to track and test for these mutations to make sure we are not caught with our pants down again. This is total common sense that even a goat would be able to understand.

If you think testing is just going to disappear overnight for covid you are delusional. If you think testing will disappear for flu, hpv, hiv, diabetes, aspergillosis, A. N. Other virus or infectious disease, then you are a total dumb ass. Next.

That’s the spirit. It’s truly amazing what just a paper gain can do for the spirits.

Porky the irony of your post chastising people for over excitement on this stock and it’s price cannot be lost on you, surely? ;)

There is a very decent chance odx will manufacture our LFT no? Maybe. Just maybe.

I am a bit ill informed re variant testing.

If they are doing surge testing in Bolton specifically for the Indian variant will every positive test be then checked and tested for the variant? Who else can do that apart from our assay?

As a former mkt maker albeit on bonds I can assure you that you use any wider market turbulence to create as much vol as possible to drive flows and increase b/o

European stocks now higher on day after being down 1.5%. Huge huge reversal across the board.

Flushed.

It’s a long road back. And there will be bumps. But I got a feeling that was the final shake.

I hate calling a bottom. But I think that dip this morning was it. The final flush. It dipped and was bought and bounced v quickly. Have seen small high volume sells to hold back slightly but I think that IMO we just saw the final wash.

Those trades are designed to try keep the px down. Small size high volume. The cat is out the bag ****wits. We hit the bottom and bounced without it even trading really. Think that was the end of the flush

Mgmidget I won’t wish you luck as you dont need it. I think you can sleep easy even with that level of exposure.

The market in general is trading very technically this week with a risk off due to inflation and rates worries in the US. Fundamentals out the window and the spivs and machines take over.

Not sure if people follow the futures market but there is a huge 500m lift of Nasdaq earlier on pre open so some shorts coming off there as tech was hammered. Hedge fu da will take some profit but think will stay short the jam tomorrow tech stocks where a rise in rates impact stretched valuations. Our valuation is not even pricing in next week never mind longer dated so we def don’t need to be worried about rising rates.

Current mkt cap 270m. Cash at year end 90m. Assuming no repayment to dhsc and the issue is just invoicing rather than over paying then I genuinely can’t see how I can lose money here. Downside cash estimate 150m at year end even without LFT, snpsig and versalab sales. The value of their IP and tech is clearly worth more than 100m.

There is a lab company called cerba that just issued a high yield bond. In the presentation and issuance material they made a positive pro forma adjustment to ebitda on the basis the labs going forward will make more money due to increased testing. Not from covid but in general. You have flu. You get tested to confirm not covid. You sneeze. you get tested. Etc etc The bond market accepted that adjustment as rationale and allowed them to issue off that adjustment.

Everyone accepts testing will play a huge part of our lives going forward. To support the current valuation and share price ncyt need to take an absolute minute share of that going forward. Say 20m annual sales and 10m ebitda and 50% margin. 10m ebitda valued at 10x gives an EV of 100m. Plus the net debt which is say -150m (as it’s net cash) so gives you implied mkt cap of 250m. We are there. This is the bottom. It factors in no further sales for this year in covid no versalab, no LFT, no more promate sales to anyone, no snpsig, nothing. Just a 20m a year top line diagnostics biz.

This is the bottom.

I got a short 15k at 382 across 3 trades. My average now into the 5s and not far from limit long absent selling the kids.

If this comes off i am going to have a hell of a party at the end of it.

Fortune favours the brave. And those that can read and appreciate fundamentals and not a chart.

Brokers won’t fill me on 10k. Where is the offer px?