Member Info for Soder

India have tons of tests approved and validated. The over site is regularly updated as new kits validated. Below is pcr (genesig is on) and LFT (mainly local players)

https://www.icmr.gov.in/pdf/covid/kits/RT_PCR_Tests_Kits_Evaluation_Summ_06042021.pdf

https://www.icmr.gov.in/pdf/covid/kits/List_of_rapid_antigen_kits_13052021.pdf

Those funds are quant funds. They won’t care it even know what novacyt do. It’s still positive that their models and Algos are signalling a buy but def not related to a view in fundamentals.

Some colour on these....

Theam is quant fund. This particular fund looks small with 37m size but v good performance. Ytd is +16 per cent and 1 year +38 per cent. The bnp fund that shows up is also theam so both running the same quant strategy Only this one a big bigger with assets of 87m.

It’s a good sign that the stock is signalling a a technical long now for what any funds which prob means worldquant continue to close and we are over the worst of the technical driven sell off.

Shorters do not destroy companies. They may destroy share prices but the underlying performance of the biz is not dependent on the share price.

Shorters facilitate liquidity and ensure mean reversion and efficient markets.

Comparing someone breaking the LAW by not stopping at a red light with people making decisions on vaccination and whether to visit a country against ADVICE is not a smart comparison.

I agree re trust being central to good government troublesome. But it’s a two way street. The government has to trust it’s people to make their own life choices. In a civilised democracy a government cannot force medical intervention on its citizens or we may as well just pack up and move to China.

I am vaccinated. I followed the rules. I believe in the greater good. But over this I believe people should be in control their own lives and make their own decisions without state, interference, control or intervention.

You can only protect people that want protecting. After a year of state control I think a decent portion of the population just want to be left alone and to make their own (informed) decisions in life. Good government is about providing information so people can make these informed decisions which they will live, or die, by. Good government is letting people make their own life choices without state interference.

Cos the elderly and vulnerable have been vacuumed acted and there is no reason y they should put their lives on hold any longer?! Am I close?

Why is it selfish of others to live their lives as they chose but not selfish for you to expect them to live their lives as you want? Life goes on.

Some headlines just out they are working with Rothschild to do an IPO. 125k boe production which will rise to 155k and largely north sea so a very good comp for hbr. Media speculating $5bn valuation.

How long is a piece of string. They will only use on positive tests and you know there are about 2k a day at moment. But each facility carrying a q machine will likely hold stock/inventory. At moment I doubt it’s huge revenue but it supplements promate revs and then we will have our LFT to come. So basically all bases covered.

But it’s important as it’s great for marketing on a global scale.

How dare you be positive. LFT is the only solution going forward. Pcr is dead and LFT will be used for variant detection. Oh hang on, what do you mean LFT can’t do that?!

As I have said before, LFT is some times sloppy, large scale, quick, cheap, mass surveillance.(McDonald’s) and pcr is dedicated, focussed, accurate, high end (the Petrus tasting menu at the chefs table). Both have a place. Both serve a different need.

Winds of change. Let’s go.

Everyone harps on about the oil price but 50 percent of our production is gas.

But that’s ok as U.K. Nat gas prices are up more than 50 percent since the beginning of March. :0

I will update model for this year and next including recent hedges they announced and the futures curve for next year.

Either way, this is literally a cash machine at these oil and gas prices. It will throw off a truly phenomenal amount of free cash given opex per bbl sub 15, no tax, debt reduced and then paying 5% on the whats left. Even after just over a billion of capex there is a huge war chest for acquisitions and dividends. Roll up roll up free money.

https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5101976&span=1

Re this BA test it’s worth bearing in mind that so far 138 tests have been put forward for validation. A grand total of 17 have been approved so far. Only 4 are in validation and 15 in early validation. 102 have already been thrown out the window. Just because you have a test does not mean it stands up to regulatory scrutiny where performance must not be compromised when it is used in real life outside a lab and manufacture is on commercial scale.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/assessment-and-procurement-of-coronavirus-covid-19-tests/coronavirus-covid-19-serology-and-viral-detection-testing-uk-procurement-overview

I’m not convinced by the airport test tbh. What idiot turns up at the airport in the day if his flights with his family all excited and packed to get tests only to find one of them has a positive test?!

You can get the 72 hrs before so why on earth would you wait until you were at the airport?

The q machines sat in hospitals are not sat there collecting dust. Pillar 1 testing numbers are untouched and bullet proof. And outside of the 500 vans the U.K. have still been averaging over 250k pcr tests a day during all of March and April and now may. But the most important point you miss...CE mark antigen LFT with initial 1m a week production capacity due within 6 weeks. Hold that thought.

As we sit here now try to think about upside-downside and the associated probabilities. For example at the extreme ends....at the end of june is it more likely that this share price has halved or doubled. I personally would assign nill chance this goes to 2 but at least a small chance it goes to 8. very extreme example but just highlighting that I believe we are at the bottom of any rational range. I genuinely also believe we found the technical floor on Thursday and I added again for the last time until we get the next set of news. My belief is that at 4 quid you are pricing in so much downside anyway that on a risk adjusted basis the investment case here is very attractive.

What am I seeing then?! I see 3,439,127 shares and 4.87 of the total outstanding?!

Split as follows:
Blackrock group 2195247
Blackrock fund advisors 872105
Blackrock investment management 353797
Blackrock inc 17,978

Source. Bloomberg. Last filing date 13 may 21.

Actually was that an old filing? Maybe I am getting ahead of myself?! We’re they on 4.87 percent before?

It’s posted it once today already. But want a rewind.

https://youtu.be/AMUr-teWAwg

I see them at 4,87 percent. Added 1.445m shares.

Oh hello.

When you know. You know.

Just had a play with the data available and if anyone interested have shown below that pcr tests carried out are still averaging over 250k a day. This is more than September last year and only just below October when we went into a semi lockdown again.

The argument that pcr falls away with LFT is clearly not stacking up. They work side by side and complement each other. With surge testing in full flow I would expect May to have over 8m tests. Since the rns saying they think dhsc may be ok with supply for the year they have done over 10m tests now. That’s a punchy number and will be making a huge dent in inventories.

First number is number of pcr tests carried out that month and second number is the average per day.

Sep 6.879m 229k
Oct 8.965m 289k
Nov 9.096m 303k
Dec 10.532m 340k
Jan 12.070m 389k
Feb 8.291m 296k
Mar 8.668m 279k
Apr 7.766m 258k
May (to 12th) 3.023m 252k

Will be interesting to see the next few days data as surge testing expands.