Member Info for Soder

It has no public debt so doesn’t need one.

Fwiw I see tullow in market with a bond today. Bank are cutting back RBL exposure massively in that refi. I would not be surprised if they n the next 6-13 months hbr did the same to reduce bank exposure and take out the remains hedge fund exposure in the bank debt.

Would comp it to an Aker or Neptune so think probably a BB area rated credit.

Jokers post was deleted but he said he can’t see how it gets back to 7....some thoughts.

Really not hard to plot a 7 quid valuation. That’s a 500m equity valuation. Most of this sector trades at 15-20x ev ebitda.

Let’s be conservative and give little old novacyt a 10x ebitda valuation.

Enterprise value = mkt cap minus net debt
Net debt we know is actually net cash and cash is building. But....Let’s say they make no more free cashflow this year. Not a dime. So take 130m as a static net cash position.

On that calculation you only need ebitda to be 36m going forward to support that £7 share / 500m mkt cap valuation. At 60 percent ebitda margin they only need to make 60m of sales A YEAR. They make that from just the private and international market in a quarter at the moment excluding any LFT sales, and snpsig sales, and pathflow sales.

It’s harder to argue it won’t get back to 7 than it will.

But I’m not a little day trader spiv like joker. He is Small fry.

https://www.icmr.gov.in/pdf/covid/kits/Guidance_COVID_testing_commodities_27042021.pdf

Announced yesterday that opening up testing exemptions for validation to increase availability

Yesterday they did 1.7m tests. The U.K. we’re doing 1.2 percent of the population to get our jan outbreak under control. That implies India needs daily testing to be 17m a day. That’s 10x current capacity.

https://www.icmr.gov.in/index.html

I’m a bit confused. I own it. I like it. It’s a long term hold for me. But that update said literally nothing I didnt know.

Shorting is good. Shorting creates liquidity and ultimately a market as you need contrarian views to create buyers and sellers. Without shorting it’s difficult to express valuation views and allow a market to price risk effectively.

We do t need contracts. Just sales. The obsession with contracts is a bit baffling. It’s perfectly normal to make bilateral sales between counter parties with a contractual supply agreement. It’s actually better as you dont limit your pricing power.

The reality is, the west and SA had it last year. It’s India now, what about the rest of Asia, Africa....you know it’s coming.

I just read there rns .... could they be our manufacturing partner???!

“In addition, Abingdon continues to work with contract service partners on the transfer of assays to large-scale manufacture and the Company has three such projects, two COVID-19 assays and one non-COVID-19 assay, currently within this process. Subject to successful completion the Board expects that these will lead to meaningful manufacturing revenues in the next financial year.“

Novacyt.

Does anyone actually know what our monthly manufacturing capacity is?

I would say that selling anything overseas for a company our size and with our manufacturing capacity is great. You can’t have it both ways.

Uttar Pradesh state by itself has a population over 240m which would make it the fifth biggest country in the world. That’s nearly 4x the size of the U.K.

Can someone please remind me again why we are all focussing on the dhsc and U.K. lateral flow?

India Population over 1.3 BILLION
To get the virus and test and trace working it took the U.K. to get daily testing capacity at more than 800k tests a day - so just over 1% of the population.

Apply that to India and it implies a daily testing capacity of nearly 15m tests are needed EVERY DAY.
Indian pcr test manufacturing capacity 38.4m per month from 30 manufacturers with licences. That is as of late last year which is a 1.2m tests a day.

Leaves a short fall of some 14m tests they would need to import every day and there are 119 companies with import licences if they want to scale up testing like the U.K.

That many tests a day is not possible due to lab capacity? Wonder if anyone has a test that can be set up and run in an office, a school, a town hall etc? Hmmmmm

India is turning into a humanitarian disaster and I hope they can get this under control. It’s not possible to lockdown as so many people like hand to mouth and literally on top of each other. The international community needs to get them huge help, starting with testing infrastructure immediately.

Jgcw... the company y rns says could have a “ material” impact to q4 revs. The company have told you that. The market knows that. It’s your short that smells of rotten eggs as even my pet chipmunk could have predicted they would not release audited accs today when they dont have to.

Is my chipmunk more financially literate than you?

It means, at the moment, they expect the dispute to be resolved by latest late June and which point they get auditors to sign off accounts and report them.

That’s all. No more no less. It’s really nothing news and just confirming what market will have known from last rns...Irish they would not be reporting fy accounts today

Do you know what audited means? How can they get their accounts audited without the contract dispute finished. They can’t.

This is non news. It’s common logic for anyone with even a tiny brain. Audited means final. Means checked and signed off by auditors. Means no revisions after. Means you cannot get audited results without resolving co yea t issue which they have already stated may impact q4 revenues.

Audited. Audited. Audited.

It’s a calculation but they would argue most likely that different product or sold in different market. So would refute the claim.

The wording on the last rns I find strange. Not sure if anyone has a view but it’s says may have a material impact of revenues. Not sure why they would just say revenues and not reported financials.

You have spacs in the US trading way above their cash optionality value that are just shells. No sales, cashflow, not even a product yet. Just m&a optionality on the spac and it’s cash pile.

We have a global diagnostics biz making sales all over the shop with world leading r&d and innovation and a huge cash pile. It’s a shame we are in AIM as it’s full of dumbasses which is a curse as much as it is a gift.

I don’t think it’s that they have too many. If the government have too much they can put on an aircraft and send to India. Will help post Brexit trade deals. That issue would be easily solved.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.thenewsminute.com/article/wait-rt-pcr-test-has-increased-labs-get-twice-samples-147262%3famp

We supply smarties? I have not put that in my base case :0

The defence rests, your honour.

I will say with some confidence... if you are buying this here, you will make money. If you see yourself underwater heavily dont worry you will make it back and you will still make money.