Member Info for Soder

The irony of this post is truly astounding...

Markets generally go up when there are more buyers than sellers. And vice versa. So instead of buying, you sell, then moan about sellers driving the price down.

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/plan-prevent-and-respond-reforming-health-security

Thi will be the agency issuing future testing contracts etc I feel

Cant see the report but can see on Bloomberg he refreshed/confirmed his price target at £14.33

From Roche and via Reuters..

“Rapid COVID-19 tests that have become a key part of nations’ COVID-19 detection strategies will grow less effective as more people get vaccinated, Roche diagnostics chief Thomas Schinecker said on Tuesday.”

“ Once the pandemic subsides, the new coronavirus is still expected to cause infections for years to come. Schinecker expected the global PCR testing market for COVID-19 to be “a bit bigger” than existing annual flu testing, now in the low single-digit billions of dollars every year.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/reutersComService_2_MOLT/idUSKBN2BF1YT

In fact just look at the red flags here....

1. COO dumps loads of stock
2. Shortly the dump, loop issue a profit warning pre Xmas
3. Annual revenue run rate provided in Decmeber implies a meaningful deterioration in performance and they state non PS is suffering from increased competition which is likely to persist. They try to make out like it was some sort of strategic decision to focus on PS which is nonsense. pS is a larger part of the business was going forward as they were handed their arses on the non ps part which is now f all. There was no strategic decision.
5. The company declines to give a trading update in their....trading update. And just restates backward looking high level figures. No commentary on market. No commentary on performance. The single worst update I have ever seen in term of lack of information.
5. The company fails to report given accounting issues

One red flag you can take. 5???!!!

He does not need to wait for the FY reporting to release updates on current trading. In fact, he chose not to provide any info at his last update which was a waste of time. He can put out a trading update any time he wants and he doesn’t. So he can shove his frustration where the sun don’t shine.

The main only reason an auditor would question the holding value of assets (even intangibles) is that they think the earnings don’t reflect the balance sheet.

Yes it’s non cash. But if they are writing down the balance sheet then it’s because earnings from those assets are not high enough to support the balance sheet valuation.

This is a red flag.

I think the auditors will be making them write down the value of the balance sheet. Yes it’s non cash but it does highlight how management have destroyed value over recent years.

They are completely incompetent.

Mgmt run this biz for themselves. It’s like the don’t have or care about external shareholders. Why wait for the morning of results to release that? They would have known in advance!!! Better to do it even last night.

Shameful.

Cant quote work this one out? Are you frustrated cos you can’t buy it cheaply or that it’s not higher and more expensive?

With the news flow they will def have to revise earnings up at some point and quantify that so I assume that will be what sends it higher.

The ratings agencies can work off unaudited financials so won’t be an issue. There focus will be on the mechanism and strength of the bank guarantees. If they agree it’s investment grade guaranteed revenue stream it will be super easy to refi.

Trachoma impacts the eyes and causes blindness so you can’t see. So are you telling us to fix our eyes and see?

Ascend is ascend diagnostics who use ion optics for mass spectrometry diagnostics. They have a leading technology and the biz looks like it would be a great fit for ncyt in building a global diagnostics biz.

https://www.ascendx.com/

Just unashamedly bumping this. Any thoughts from anyone else?

At university my housemate went travelling to Thailand for the summer without his missus. Somehow, when he got back, he managed to convince his girlfriend (now wife) he caught that from a toilet seat. Just wrong.

I think given the super long term take or pay agreements backed by bank guarantees we can get it much much lower than this and should not be looking for an RBL.

This is an investment grade guaranteed revenue stream for many years. As such you can securitise it so we should be able to get a super long term, super low cost facility in place which amortises over its life.

Stevo, brilliant summary and agree with your conclusions. Thanks for that.

The psychology of markets. Fear of missing out versus fear of being handed your arse :0

Confidence comes from conviction and conviction comes from doing the work and having confidence in your work.

Up up up

Soder knows his sh*t ;)

Much love, soder.

We could do that deal with cashflow now easily and at a BIG discount to what was agreed before. And we are competing against Ithaca and enquest who have serious balance sheet constraints. We know the assets better than anyone!!!
Let’s do it HARBOUR!!!

I just mentioned on another thread but maybe deserves one of its own....

BP back looking to sell North Sea assets PMO agreed to pay $625m for.

I note this comment late last year after the deal fell apart.

“Mr Durrant, Premier’s CEO, hinted that the enlarged Chrysaor-Premier Oil business could rekindle its interest in the assets once their merger goes through.

The deal was first announced in January, but was renegotiated following the dramatic slump in oil and gas prices in March and April.

Mr Durrant said the deal would have been a “good transaction” for Premier Oil as a standalone business and that meetings with BP employees had been going well.

However, he said the BP deal would have “diluted” the tax “synergy” created by the combination with Chrysaor.

Mr Durrant said: “I’m sure the combined Chrysaor-Premier organisation will continue to talk to BP. I think we left things in a very good place from a relationship point of view.

“We probably need to focus on getting the merger over the line first, but in due course I’m sure there will be further conversations.”

Chrysaor chief executive Phil Kirk declined to comment.