Member Info for Soder

The founder of Vitol is also a non exec at SAVE.

The background of the ceo is also as an investor. This is a build and flip story.

This board his a truly unbelievable amount of entitled, financially illiterate, cry baby pussies that genuinely expect other people to make them risk-free, wealthy.

Time to dry your eyes out kids. Put your toys back in the pram, maybe put your big boy pants on, and take some responsibility for you own financial investment decisions. If you genuinely have no clue what you are doing and you just follow what other people do with no view of your own, then you are sheep. And sheep get slaughtered!!!

Shaun is not responsible for making you rich and cannot be held to account for you being so incompetent and lazy that you don’t do your own work. You have choices. Get smart. Learn. Know what you are doing. Or just just buy a fund with a fund manager who will do it all for you. But dont come on here throwing stupid accusations around cos you are a lemming. Rant over.

Yes welcome. Pls stay.

You don’t need to wonder. You can work it out by looking at the pro forma cap structure and restructuring terms given to creditors to take a haircut on their debt obligations.

It’s not rocket science. It’s not a magical mystery.

No. The company gave away equity to creditors to clean up the balance sheet.

I am on about the oil price not pmo.

There is no way pmo gets to 70.

I bought in at 20p a few weeks back. I’m probably out at 30 short term which is a 5x ev multiple. Best case at the moment is what, 6x ev ebitda? At 60 average oil and 34 bore gas that’s a share price of 38p. Longer term I think goes higher but I was here for the trade as the mkt seemed to fundamentally not understand the chrysaor deal or the shorting/pre hedging around it.

Having said that, this gets close to 24p pre merger close and I’m in for more as that sub 4.5x ev ebitda for a company with a clean balance sheet, big scale, diversified production (oil and gas), FCF positive, good hedge book, WILL pay a dividend and some good prospects to add production.

This is the main news for us today as proves there is demand there to be filled and not going away even with a vaccine program that is going at some pace.

Is christal b2b or b2c. I can’t quite make out? Just wondering if we may be positioning to become (partially) a direct consumer products company?

Nah m, the draw on gasoline inventories was HUGE in the weekly API report. Crude only built as several large refineries were off line in the south from the freeze. Looking into the refined product data you can see demand is still there and supply still restricted. The demand will be boosted when jet fuel demand and gasoline demand returns over the next few months.

All eyes on opec and the ruskies this week but if I am then I would let the market run hot till the June meeting and see where the demand side of the equation is then.

I’m pretty bullish oil. Think if they hold cuts this week we test 70 by the summer when demand should go through the roof from a return to driving and flying.

Airlineboy you seem to place an awful lot of trust in the competence of school staff to be able to do it. I don’t know what your teachers were like at school but a decent proportion of mine were absolute morons.

Tullow 2022 bond has to be refinanced this year. It current trades in low 90s at a yield of 14 per cent. The 2025 bond trades in low 80s at a yield of 14 percent.

The bank debt is not the issue. It’s not to refinance the 21 convert and 22 bond. Hi f they have to pay a coupon of 14% plus then that will kill free cashflow and limit capex. Tullow is a sitting duck. The production is declining and they can’t drill as cash is being used to repair balance sheet. They are running the biz for creditors and balance sheet repair at the moment and not for equity holders. If they had cash they would be drilling Guyana. Why are they not? Cos they don’t have a pot to **** in and are being instructed by banks to sell assets and repair the balance sheet.

A certain poster on here has this on Twitter...

*Incoming Takeover*
IF the speculation is true then #Novacyt are
duty bound to report it to the market.
SH will know for sure one way or the other
Let see what happens

That’s not ramping. That clear and blatant market abuse.

Just read Twitter also. There is a fine line between discussing possible take over scenarios and spreading false information.

Just because wr are a retail investor does not mean we are immune to the market abuse regulations with regards to spreading misleading and false information.

Be careful people.

Tullow has a 21 convert and a 22 and 25 bond. The 21 and 22 maturity bonds will need refinancing within next few months or the business will restructure. Best case they will do a hugely dilutive big rights issue to repair the balance sheet.

You basically sold pmo (a company that just went through the pain of repairing its balance sheet) to buy tullow (a company that needs to do what pmo just did)

Congratulations. Probably the most stupid trade you could have done.

Always **** on a Tesco carrier bag

If the mkt cap is $5bn the EV would $8.2bn. With all the hedging in place and current spot oil you know ebitda is at least $2.2bn.

Hence a 5bn mkt cap would imply an ev ebitda multiple of 3.7x. I would be my house, car, worldly possession, kids, wife, mistress etc the mkt does not value this at 3.7x. All the relative value comps are 5-6x. Assuming a worst case 5x would give a worst case mkt cap $7.8bn which is currently £5.5bn and 5% of that is £270m

In reality a low levered, highly cash generative oil biz with spot oil at 65, paying a dividend and with good growth potential is likely worth at least 6x.

Does that guy think he is Jerry springer or something with his final thought? Thanks for the life tips, mate. Jog on.

Unfortunately a ****ty management team with a track record of destroying value

A poster telling you to be careful just stated market cap has to include debt. You make you own mind up if you should take advice from that poster.

Enterprise value = mkt cap + net debt

We know for sure that net debt is going to be 3.2bn. Maybe less given cash flow since Xmas. It’s well hedged so pro forma ebitda will be at least 2bn.

All figures above in usd. Fx will be a big headwind to the share price in gbp. But use 1.41 and you can make assumptions on appropriate ev ebitda multiple. It will be between 5.5-6x imo. You can then back calculate a mkt cap and a share price using the pro forma number of shares outstanding.

I find truly amazing that people have their hard earned money invested in things when they have no clue what is going on. If you own shares why would you not want to just read the presentation to understand what may happen to your money? It’s not rocket science.