Member Info for Soder

Just put a comment re downside valuation on another thread but genuinely interested to hear the case for this company being valued lower....

Mkt cap 475
Cash 100
Gives EV of 375
Will be making at least 100m more cash in h1 21. At least. That cash will not disappear.
So ev in reality here is 275
Give me a worst cases no covid everyone back to normal ebitda projection for 2022 and beyond. 50m?

So ev ebitda then is 5.5x

Tell me please another company with min 200m cash who is a leader in their field valued at that? Help me understand. Cash can’t just disappear and we know the company has recruited on 6 month contracts so fixed costs will disappear if covid does.

Ramping, de ramping aside....

Let’s forget the Big Bang and look at a downside.

Enterprise value is mkt cap plus new debt
At current price that is 475 -100 =375. Even the most pessimistic out there knows cash will be growing in H1 21. Let’s conservatively say it will be another 100m. So enterprise value will be 275m

Assume covid vaishes and we are left with a small localised diagnostics biz. Ebitda what 50m? Making no cash. That’s 5.5x ev ebitda. That is some crazy ****.

This is trading like it has liquidity issues and could go under.

It’s remortgage your house time.

*received. Not re wives. @@@@@ auto correct phone

Even in Mexico so that guy can stop harping on about how Mexico will derail the deal when in reality he was co fusing unit isa toon with competition clearance

It’s a formality now. Harbour will happen.

Building resilience to future pandemics

198. To build resilience in the health system for any future pandemics, the Government is on track to establish the National Institute for Health Protection (NIHP) in April 2021. This new organisation will be responsible for monitoring, identifying and ensuring our nation’s readiness to respond to public health hazards. Combining the health protection capabilities of PHE with NHS Test and Trace, including the UK-wide Joint Biosecurity Centre (JBC), and building on the experiences of tackling COVID-19, the Government will transfer staff and systems into the new organisation over the following months. At a local level, local authorities and Directors of Public Health, working with PHE, will continue to work to manage local outbreaks engaging closely with their communities. They are supported by the national COVID-19 contain outbreak management framework, which sets out how national and local partners work with the public to prevent, manage and contain outbreaks.

199. The Government will also continue to ensure that any plans for future pandemics are multi-sectoral. Although the health and social care system is central to responding to a pandemic, all Departments and partners are critical to a response and will continue to improve resilience for any future pandemics.

It’s posted elsewhere but I would advise anyone invested in any testing company to read this.

The importance and scale of testing going forwards is huge. Way way way way bigger than I had imagined.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963491/COVID-19_Response_-_Spring_2021.pdf

Longwait if I was you I would start praying that the saying a fool and his money are soon keyed is not true

Not just pcr but pcr for variants.

Lol.

To get to a valuation of £1+, assuming constant fx at 1.4 and andan ev multiple of 5.5x you would need production to double to 420k bbl a day, oil to be at 80, gas 40boe.

In short, not gonna happen.

The biggest near term risk to the share price is fx. Oil ain’t selling off and we are heavily hedged anyway. Balance sheet sorted. But the strength of gbp is a serious headwind.

Valyew. Hope has nothing to do with if. It’s simple maths you can work out yourself. Company valuation is not rocket science. Especially oil companies. Production. oil price. opex bbl. fixed costs. Capex. Debt.

Oil stocks remain at all time low valuations given their have pariah status courtesy of the ESG mob. In reality, given current oil prices and the outlook, free cash flow will be meaningful over 2021 and beyond. But it’s trendy to **** off oil and even the ceo’s of Bp and shell do it. Personally, i think if they want to run a wind farm or solar business they should **** off and do it some where else. These are an oil companies and as a shareholder I expect them to be run as such. If I wanted to invest in ****ty IRR white elephants I would. But I don’t.

Ebitda will be $2.2bn with $3.2bn net debt at close.

Assuming a min 5.5x ev ebitda multiple gives an implied mkt cap of $8.9bn. Flip that to £ at 1.4 which is a huge headwind at the money and you get a market cap of £6.3bn. 5% of that is £315m vs current not cap of £210m = 50% upside in approx 1 month.

Ideally we would like gbp to weaken against the dollar over the next month which will boat the SP.

Monday is a non event. It’s already agreed by creditors. Merger does not complete u til the end of March

Some people seem disheartened about the current headlines on LFT roll outs. Ncyt and pcr was never meant for mass population surveillance. Lab based gold standard pcr is for accurate diagnosis. PCR will remain in place for a long time and especially in locations where there is no margin for error. Eg nhs Hospitals and care facilities.

If the government are going to test people to go to the theatre they are going to be testing people a whole lot longer for hospital admissions. Just looking at the pillar 1 testing capacity - It continues to increase every week and the number of tests is broadly constant. That is the niche we are in.

I am totally relaxed about extension of dhsc contract well beyond 2021. If the government want LFT they have to have PCR.

Thanks for that insightful analysis. Some real value added, right there. Zzzzzzzzzzz

Hi chatbot

Yes I am currently flat. Ended up down more than 50 percent. Still watch it though as I still don’t really understand how I got it so wrong. And from reading this board no one else seems to know either.

Have made some of the losses back on PMO but will keep watching this as I actually want it to succeed so I can rationalise my initial trade. Investments are also not door numbers so if I can get comfortable the business has stabilised and they may actually be able to convert the pipeline then no reason I would not invest again. But the opportunity cost of sitting here in a share doing nothing when the rest of the mkt has gone bananas is high and costly.

What do we make of there news today?

If they are getting involved there has to be a wider role for ncyt in the overall testing landscape.

I’m genuinely baffled as to why some people are pulling party poppers?! The research paper publish yesterday is just that...why are we assuming this leads to a strategy shift from a government who have already stated a preference for LFTs?

Also as far as I can tell the saliva test is still lab based? Where is this results in 20 mins coming from?