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It’s brilliant. As an investment rather than a quick trade this is going to make longs a lot of money

Rubbish. You think someone with insider knowledge of a takeover goes and does a discrete £1m trade in that stock?

Probably Han**** washing his kick back money for covid contracts

Is anyone else having to sit in their hands so they dont bet the bank on ncyt now.

The tone and direction of this is brilliant

The shorts are actually longs and laughing all the way to the bank. It’s been pointed out a thousand times on here. They are long debt versus a smaller short on the equity to pre sell creditor shares they will be allocated in the deal. They want the SP higher just as much as me and you.

Not surprised. Everyone had enough of being locked up now and are relaxing lockdown rules themselves. I know I am.

That’s a pretty naff video in all honesty. Like a school project.

I would be staggered if the pr company could be that incompetent on their first assignment.

Official corporate comms/rns releases are checked, rechecked and checked again. They would have to be signed off by both several people at ncyt and the consultancy and there is no way someone/anyone would not have noticed that significant difference between the two releases.

The most recent presentation says “expectation to initiate a dividend for full year 2021

Page 27

https://www.premier-oil.com/sites/default/files/files/201217-analyst-presentation_0.pdf

How stupid do you think the financial institutions managing your money are?

No

I posed the link to that doc and also the important sections last night. If anyone is invested here (looking or short) and you have not read that document you will likely lose everything you have at some point trading/investing blindly.

I bought more at 673 this morn. I think my average is a 6 handle now after taking some profits pre and post trading update. However, I will not be sat here kicking myself for lacking ****** in 2 months time when this is trading meaningfully higher and have put sells in on some fund holdings to add more this week.

This valuation is total nonsense.

Last 12 month ebitda will probably be 280-300m come June. I have never ever in my entire life seen a cash flow positive company trading at 1x ebitda. It’s almost like the mkt thinks this biz just folds immediately and not even a taper off of testing over the coming 6 months, 12 months, years.....

If you have cash you are meant to be buying this nonsense. In size.

I would not even quote mkt cap anymore as it does not reflect cash. At 275m enterprise value it is trading at under 1x forecast LTM ebitda as of June 21.

I have literally in my entire life (been trading professionally and casually) for over 20 years ever seen that.

Worth flagging this separately. All figure in £

- Cash at year end 2021 was 92m. Cash balance was 18m and end June 2020 so implies 74m free cash flow in second half. They bought it-is for 10m in September so pre acquisition cashflow was 84m in second half.
- Revenue 277m for 2020 of which 214m was in second half of the year. Sales of primer design test were only 45m as of June and the dhsc contract did not kick in until the forth quarter.
- Ebitda for 2020 187m of which 143m was in the second half of the year.

Are we safe to assume that the first half off 2021 will at least match the second half of 2020? Most of the second half performance came in q4 and in January and February alone testing way exceeds that seen in November and December. The summer months last year had very low covid numbers. Testing in April-June 2021 is at least going to match June-sep 2020. In reality number of tests will be massively higher as highlighted by the government testing strategy, the fact ncyt have now have rolled out into more countries with more tests, and also ad our dhsc contract did not kick in until q4. U.K. pillar 1 testing capacity continues to increase even today. Promate is online. Versalab is online. We have got fit to fly. Work place testing. Variant testing. Etc etc

But, let’s be ultra conservative and say for h1 2021 all we do is match the second half of last year. As such what could cash be? Management stated in the trading update that cash conversion from ebitda was 80 percent. Take 0.8 x 143 = another 114m cash. Add that to our 92m we had at year end = 206m cold hard cash.

I would not bet against h2 2021 being meaningfully different to h1 given news flow and products for variant testing which sets you up for min 300m of cash at year end 2021. Possibly and indeed probably more. And it will definitely more when you start unwinding working capital.

Given the U.K. government document last night testing will carry on. Pcr testing will be a huge part of this. Given the EU vaccine strategy is a mess testing will carry on in Europe. Given large parts of the world have not even started vaccination testing will carry on there. Do people really think that this is over and we just stop testing in June this year? Do they really think governments will be caught with pants down again. There will be permanent infrastructure put in place. Han**** and Boris have already told us that.

The argument against this company into the longer term future is one thing. The argument against its current valuation is another. Even if you loathe everything about it, there is not a single rationale argument you can give that values this business on an enterprise value of potentially 275m ( mkt cap minus net debt) at June 21. Not a single one.

I know. I am being way way way way too conservative to prove a point. There is no rational basis for the current valuation. None.

Only theme investors who could not value a company if their lives depended on it would say it’s not worth the current price. Even if you hate management. Even if you hate their test. Even if they never did another pcr test again. Even if covid was cured by a second coming of the messiah tomorrow. Even if this biz liquidated. The current share price is lower than the valuation of this business given its CASH pile and value of its tech and IP.

Only a total moron would not get that.

Keep buying.

Brod74. Read the trading update and do the maths. Most of the 2020 performance came from not just the second half but the 4th quarter. And more specifically November and December. January and February testing has surpassed November and December so worst case we match those 2 months. Fair?

For H2 2020 we did £143m ebitda and we know most of that came in 4th quarter. Management specifically said cash conversion from ebitda was 80 percent going forward. EIGHTY ****ING PERCENT!!!! That’s unheard of.

So let’s assume a conservatively that for h1 2021 we match 143m ebitda that we hit in h2 2020. Thats would give us 0.8x143 = another 114m of cash. That would be a total balance cash position over over 200m quid.

In reality jan and feb have been monster months and March will be same so the cash position at end of H1 will probably be £250m plus (ex any acquisitions). That’s also excluding any working capital unwind.

this is the single biggest free money opportunity in the market today.
Cash is king. Keep buying.

Even the the biggest muppet in the market knows how to value cash. It’s worth cash. Assume no more testing from today and an unwind of our working capital in h2 21 we will have close to 300m of it. Is the market saying we have no ongoing business prospects after that? Yes. I call bull****. Keep buying.

So no one can present an argument against the valuation?