Member Info for Soder

They do. They own bank loans.

So they are not shorting. Just selling shares ahead of being allocated them in the debt-for-equity swap as part of the deal. The short gets filled and cancelled as soon as the deal closes.

When porky says do the math I do wonder what he was doing in maths lessons. £53 a share would give a market cap of 3.75bn quid. I can only assume he was smoking something in his maths class and therefore I will have some of whatever that was.

You are required under the aim listing rules to report any news (eg contract wins or loses) that would impact the sp either up or down. You are also required to update the market if your performance is out of sync with market expectation.

Maybe it’s not a strategy. Maybe it’s just because there is......no news that would impact the sp?

All this data is available to the public.

Go to testing. Then testing by pillar etc. I like the testing capacity by pillar data. click on that then daily data.

Check out pillar one testing capacity. that’s us. Continues to go up every day. Why? Our roll out in nhs still most likely.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing

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In a rational market it should be much higher. Unfortunately oil stocks are the new tobacco and Institutional investors are ignoring value and exiting due to ESG nonsense.

The last time you had oil up here even shell was more than 40 percent higher.

The sector is trading around 5.5-6x which seems crazy given the effort to reduce opex and break evens. Cash flows will be huge with 60 plus oil and would expect meaningful buybacks and dividends at the large caps.

Some Rel Val comps for you on ev ebitda basis for current and next year ebitda

Aker 6x and 4.1x
Lundin 5.7x and 4.1x
Enquest 3x and 5x
Serica 5.2x and 5.7x

Large cap current valuation multiples
Shell 5.5x
Repsol 5.1x
Bp 5.2x
Galp 7.8x
Equinor 3.3x

Chaspb. Nonsense.

We are missing something. We are missing why management chose to give no trading update in their.....trading update.

That creates mistrust and suspicion, especially as the last time we heard from them prior they profit warned just after one of the management sold 250k worth of stock north of £2 a share.

Unfortunately Ian the market values companies in forward looking earnings. What do you think for 2021 ebitda and cashflow?

With oil companies it’s actually v easy to do a back of the envelope quick valuation as they give you lots of info around production, opex bbl, hedges.

The pro forma entity will have combined production of about 210k boe in 2021. Half gas. Half oil. Assume 360 days in year for simplicity gives 75.6m boe equiv annual production (37.8m boe oil and 37.8m boe gas)

They have stated they have hedged 16m bbl oil at $60 and 22m boe gas at 43p a therm which is $34boe.

Use a spot price of 64 and $31 for the balance.

That gives total revenues of $3.6bn. Opex bbl is $15 and fixed costs $182m. Gives you ebitda of $2.2bn.

Net debt at close will be 3.2bn.
Using a 6x ev ebitda multiple gives you an ev if $13.6bn and implied market cap of $10.4bn. Usining fx rate of 1.39 it’s a market cap of £7.5bn.

The max number of shares in issue post deal closing will be 18,510,653,520. So that gets you a share price of 41p assuming new synergies.

I would think that as it is picked up by bank analysts for research coverage you are talking about a share price of between 30-40p all things being equal.

To take a hedge out you need a hedge counterparty and a financing line from a bank. It’s a derivative after all. When all the banks sold out of the bank debt they terminated the lending relationship ship. As such pmo could not hedge as much as they would want as they didn’t have the bank facilities in place. And certainly nothing long term. Same is true for enquest.

The creditors meeting is a formality on 22nd. They already have signed acceptance letters so it’s just a rubber stamp. Will be end of March and when harbour starts trading when the breaks come off.

Yes the oil price is going in the right direction but the spike this week is most likely temporary and impacting spot prices. The cold snap in the southern US has ~40 percent of all US oil and gas production off line. That will return as the weather improves. As such the futures cube not even close to the spot price.

With $15 bbl opex we will be throwing off cash. Not least because we will be 1.2x levered and with a pro forma cost of debt inside 5% as communicated by the company. Even after hefty capex the balance sheet is going to look pretty good. To the company I say hedge hedge hedge and to other PIs I say keep buying buying buying. Still far to cheap when I model this at $57 oil and 40p /therm gas....Never mind oil at 64 and the winter 21 gas contract at ~50p therm.

I pointed this out in my story thread re ftse 250 and the lockup on the weekend. Albeit I said would be included in June index roll. Odd they should rns it so soon. Are IIs or the company reading this board?

If so can you please keep hedging as much as you can out to end 2022. There is no way the Saudis and shale yanks will let everyone get rich at their expense for long :)

That is beyond generic. What was the point? My mom could have given those responses.

The night club crowd? Patronising much?

Some people will do the LFTs some won’t. But it’s not meant to be perfect. It’s just part of the overall set of tools yo give people confidence for a full opening of the economy - vaccinating and surveillance (not sickness) testing

LFT you do you self. I did an innova one last week. It was same swab of tonsils as the pcr tests I have done. No difference at all in taking the test only diff is pcr is sent to a lab.

People won’t literally have to do at a nightclub entrance. The government will just sent everyone a box of them and ask you to do them regularly and if you test positive don’t go to the club. Will be self policing so to speak.

Comparing PCR and LFT is like comparing an apple with a cat. LFT is for quick mass testing across the board. You give LFTs to people day to day when you can accept a margin of error. For restaurants, for sports, for gyms , for school....it’s a day to day test for mass surveillance.

For anyone going to a hospital for an operation or anyone being admitted yo hospital you give pcr as there is no margin for error.

They are completely different tests for a different scenarios and settings. LFT can’t do what PCR does and PCR can’t do what LFT does. They exist side by side. It’s not difficult.

Nope. They will force the price up on themselves if they do that. Plus it’s also risk management. They have made good money on these. And will still be left as huge shareholders.

More importantly, it is also very likely (and almost a certainty) that they have now got private, price sensitive information ahead of the 22 feb creditors meeting and being have had to restrict themselves from any trading of public securities. The restructuring would need due diligence reports provided by advisors which will contain forward looking guidance and info that is not public to me and thee.

Are we having fun yet? Chooo chooooooooo coming through. Next stop 30. It’s going to happened. People starting to see past the merger and analyse the pro forma combined biz.