Member Info for Soder

Yes very. As that will carry us through rest of 21. And I think it’s also significant in terms of our value to a thermo or an abbot or a PE players who owns labs. The products are very good. The innovation is good. The dhsc and company I bviously have ****ed something up.

Would be good to keep this threat fresh with any other valuation input. We need to keep our heads when all around are losing theirs.

Remember q1 also does not include any sales for variant tests and our LFT. It’s not a train wreck for me as I do t think the share price was pricing in any dhsc extension at all.

Trying not to lose my head and think about valuation a bit...

Even if q4 revenues are impacted the reported cash is cash and they will have to have had it to report it at year end. So we know that’s banked. Then, assuming (as guided) 80 percent cash conversion of ebitda and ebitda margins of 65 percent then you get to 46m ebitda and q1 cash generation of maybe 40m based on the revenue figures just given. That would give us about 140m odd if cash currently.

Mkt cap currently about 340-350m so less cash is an EV of 200m for a biz that just did q1 ebitda of 46m. Looks cheap on face of it but I no longer have any clue how to model the rest of 2021.

Thumb in the air....assume they get to 100m ebitda for full year 21 which would prob give them nearly 200m cash by year end. Then we assuming the residual biz is worth only 150m. Also looks cheap.

For 2022 assume we are a 30m ebitda biz valued at 10x ev ebitda and with 200m cash you get an implied equity value of 500m which puts us back to where we were trading?!

I have no clue really as just throwing out some numbers but I would say it’s more likely we get taken over now than make it to 2022.

1. Not that co tract was not renewed but that is is disputed. So you be petty is being accused of failing to deliver their side of the agreement. Who and what and why?

2. Company believes that q1 promate sales may be sufficient to support the nhs roll out for remainder of 2021. Does that mean the gov have excess stock and likely now no more nhs sales? In that case we assume now all private sector?

We need the strategic update more than ever. The diff here to other shot shows is cash and what they do with it.

This is a gift. Just took another top up and baffled how we are not meaningfully higher today. Never mind not connecting the dots... the market is not taking the hint from a series of almighty punches in the face. This is going higher. Meaningfully higher. When I have no clue. But this cannot and will not stay this cheap forever. We will have a negative enterprise value by the end of the year at this rate. How can we be worth less than cash? We can’t.

Risk for who troublesome. If I was a 20 something in perfect health I would be putting two different gets up to it. By not taking the AZ I have no chance of dying from a blood clot on the brain and also no chance of dying from covid. So why would I take that risk? For the good of wider society? No thanks.

They also have a Genetix own brand palmQ mini. That is our genesig q16!

http://genetixbiotech.com/product/palmq-mini/

Are we selling machines to our suppliers who then sell under their own brand? Was just looking at one of our Indian suppliers sites...genetix biotech Asia. They sell a Genetix own brand palmQpro. See below. That’s a q32!!!???

http://genetixbiotech.com/product/palmq-pro/

https://www.genesig.com/products/10042-genesig-q32-real-time-pcr-instrument

A few are named in various merger docs and news articles.

Arcm, voya, Davidson kempner, fortress, whitebox, varde, melquart, Goldman special sits, citi and db distressed desks.

What’s the obsession with a contract. You don’t need a contract to sell people stuff. You just sell it. Contract or no contract.

API reported same day and same time every week.

Feel free to tell me the last time analyst consensus was even remotely correct for US inventories. They rarely even get a build/draw call correct never mind a quantum. It’s a complete waste of time.

I have now been through most of the latest (post merger, pro forma) analyst research and their models for harbour. There is a mix of price targets from 20p to 30p.

The one thing that stands out in all of these is the price decks they are using for commodity price assumptions in their models for this current year....which are absolute nonsense and out of date - reflecting commodity price assumptions that were formulated in late 2020.

For example, stifel this morning....price target 26p
2021 Oil price assumption $50bbl
2021 Gas price assumption 35p a therm ($28 boe)

For 2021 harbour already has hedges on 22m barrels of oil ( approx 57% of total 2021 oil production) at ave $58/bbl. They also have hedges on 25m boe of gas (approx 66 % of total 2021 gas production) at 44p a therm ($35.3 boe).

In addition, the current spot price of Brent is $62.82 with a yer to date average price for 2021 of $61.41. The current U.K. gas price from ICE is 48.99p a therm with an average year to date 2021 price of 49.12p a therm.

In summary, the analyst models used to calculate harbour financial performance and cashflows are based on assumptions so far detached from reality it’s embarrassing. When they put **** assumptions into their models what do they get out? Yes, that’s right, ****!!!!

The best price I have seen was from Barclays who provide a commodity price sensitivity matrix. This shows that for every 5$ move in brent the company free cashflow will increase by $170m and for every 5p a therm move in gas cashflow would increase by $50m

Barclays have a 30p target based on 5x Ev/cashflow. I think that is conservative and would argue that with such huge fcf you are looking at 5.5x min. I think the sector will rerate higher at q1 reporting when the market sees the huge free cashflow companies in this sector have made over the last few months. For example BP this morning are restarting buybacks as free cash was so high they have hit their net debt target early. Harbour have stated their cashflow break even is $30-35 a bbl. so anything above that is free cash. It’s a cash machine!!! Expect dividends, sure. But... with 90 percent of the current production from U.K. assets expect M&A. The majors are practically giving producing assets away at the moment as they target a green future. I expect harbour to go back for the BP North Sea assets v v v soon, but also likely some transformational international M&A as the balance sheet is so strong.

Buckle up.

Oriens you need to get your head around the fact that comparing lft and pcr is like comparing fast food and fine dining. Both have a place that n society but also cater to different needs.

LFT is for mass population testing and screaming. It’s quick and it’s cheap and is relatively precise. It’s mass market. It’s McDonald’s.

Pcr is high tech. It’s more expensive. It’s super accurate. It’s used to track variants, it’s used to actually build and design LFT tests, it’s used to ensure all people entering hospital are 100% covid free, it’s used when a mass testing rapid alternative was not alternative. But it will style be used for all LFT positives, all pillar 1 needs, all vaccine and variant monitoring and testing and all future diagnostics in a post covid world. It’s a long dinner expensive dinner with the taster menu on the chefs table at la maison.

Both have a place. Both will be used. But, post covid your LFT will be useless and pcr will still be used to design vaccines, monitor variants, test for cancer, all other infectious diseases etc.

I have now been through most of the latest (post merger, pro forma) analyst research and their models for harbour. There is a mix of price targets with the lowest at 20p and the highest at 30p.

The one thing that stands out a mile in all of these is the price decks they are using for commodity price assumptions in their models for this current year....which are absolute nonsense.

For example, stifel this morning....price target 26p
2021 Oil price assumption $50bbl
2021 Gas price assumption 35p a therm ($28 boe)

For 2021 harbour already has hedges on 22m barrels of oil ( approx 57% of total 2021 oil production) at ave $58/bbl. They also have hedges on 25m boe of gas (approx 66 % of total 2021 gas production) at 44p a therm ($35.3 boe).

In addition, the current spot price of Brent is $62.82 with a yer to date average price for 2021 of $61.41. The current U.K. gas price from ICE is 48.99p a therm with an average year to date 2021 price of 49.12p a therm.

In summary, the analyst models used to calculate harbour financial performance and cashflows are based on assumptions so far detached from reality it’s embarrassing. When they put **** assumptions into their models what do they get out? Yes, that’s right, ****!!!!

The best price I have seen was from Barclays who provide a commodity price sensitivity matrix. This shows that for every 5$ move in brent the company free cashflow will increase by $170m and for every 5p a therm move in gas cashflow would increase by $50m

Barclays have a 30p target based on 5x Ev/cashflow. I think that is conservative and would argue that with such huge fcf you are looking at 5.5x min. I think the sector will rerate higher at q1 reporting when the market sees the huge free cashflow companies in this sector have made over the last few months. For example BP this morning are restarting buybacks as free cash was so high they have hit their net debt target early. Harbour have stated their cashflow break even is $30-35 a bbl. so anything above that is free cash. It’s a cash machine!!! Expect dividends, sure. But... with 90 percent of the current production from U.K. assets expect M&A. The majors are practically giving producing assets away at the moment as they target a green future. I expect harbour to go back for the BP North Sea assets v v v soon, but also likely some transformational international M&A as the balance sheet is so strong.

Buckle up.

Honestly I will be gutted if they rns this side of the tax year tbh. It’s so close I just want them to wait a week.

It’s based on a price deck of 60 for 2022. You make up your own mind if oil will be below or above and go from there.

They state a $5 bbl move in brent adds 4p per share and improves cashflow by 170m. A 5p a therm move in U.K. gas adds 1p per share and cashflow by 50m.

It’s also based on ev cashflow multiple of 5x. That I think goes higher as market sees the cashflow this sector is going to generate at current oil prices.

Overweight recommendation and 30p px target

Re harbour... “will provide U.K. investors with a new e&p stock with the scale, breadth and balance sheet needed to be an attractive tube investment proposition in what remains a challenged sub sector. As the UK’s largest oil and gas producer, we forecast harbour could generate over $1.1bn per n free cashflow in 2022 at $60 oil; sufficient for management to deliver on all 3 of its capital allocation priorities - balance sheet strength, portfolio enhancement, shareholder returns. We assume fy 21 dividend of 1p a share (~240m) as the start of a sustainable dividend policy with a ~4% yield. We reinstate rating at overweight and a 30p price target”

70? Schools have broken up then I see

Chamonix just the other side of the tunnel in France. Courmeyer is on the Italian side. I have boarded both many times and Cham is prob the most challenging area in Europe you can ski or board. Vallee Blanche/grand Monte can be brutal. The town is pretty generic and dull though. Typical small over priced alpine town but with a higher proportion of gnarly people there looking for a thrill. It’s actually busier in summer than winter.

Out with an initiation report and sell. Price target 21p.

The analysis is based on a 50p spot oil px for 2021 giving pro forma ebitda of $1.6bn.

I would say with some certainty that is absolute nonsense. To get to an average spot of 50 for 2021 brent the average price for the rest of the year would need to be 46 effective immediately given the ytd brent average is 61.

What is the point of building g a mode with some nonsense assumptions. **** in, **** out.

Hi. That looks high. Where are you getting that number from please?