Member Info for Soder

My model for 2021 after q1 assumes no new promate dhsc revs given the rns comment. Since that rns at the end of March the U.K. has performed over 10m PCR tests. What’s ncyt share of this? 10m tests a month pre lockdown surely must be making a huge dent in and excess supply or inventory. I just can’t see how they will possibly not need to be buying more alongside LFT supply.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing

Bladesman. That is utter nonsense.

For the first time ever the fca have lost control of the ridiculous complaints and compete station mess they helped create.

They are running scared that companies can now walk away from these ridiculous witch hunts and this is the final throw of the dice for them. They have nowhere always to go. They are irrelevant in this process now as the U.K. courts do not recognise them as a stakeholder here and they have no vote.

I’m not even sure it matters now as the fca dont get a vote. They are irrelevant to the scheme and the court process. Onv they could be a pain after but that would rule them u fit as a regulator.

I think they have to object as you will see others companies isa doing the same restructuring process to free themselves of fca imposed noose around neck for complaints.

It’s all games and if the fca want to play hard ball what will they do? Send amigo into administration? We would just start a law suit against them as would the creditors who lost out as a result of that.

Tbh I had not really paid much attention to the solar Jv party. How the f have we teamed up with these guys? Looks like it was started last year by a couple of kids. It’s me who’s career experience is in a hospital. Wtf?!

And we have sunk 6m of money to a Jv with these guys at 2 percent. How? Why? These guys have no track record and to be frank quite likely have no clue what they are doing.

Sr123 you talk about 2022 like it’s some long distant time. In 2 weeks int June 21!!!

The licence expires jan 23 I believe so they will have to contract a rig and announce a plan in the not too distant future.

Re Guyana not being a priority, in public they keep pounding the drum about diverting capex to Ghana where they can add easy production. If I was trying to avoid a default and refinance 1.8bn I would say the same to the market. It’s better than saying they are going wild catting with bond issuance proceeds offshore South America.

The cost of a well is 40m in Guyana? Even with tullow 60 percent share it’s not huge for such a high impact drill. Indeed there are supportive fiscal terms in Guyana including 1% royalty, 75% cost recovery and 40-50% profit share which means discoveries have great returns.

If the drill in early 22, q s they will drill in early 22, you will know about it over the next few months. Guaranteed. That’s what till turbo the SP and not the actual drilling I self.

Hold your horses...

Tlwln just completed a comprehensive refi and raised 1.8bn of 5 year debt to refinance the 2021 and 2022 maturities and their RBL. They now have locked in term money for 5 years including an indrawn 600m bank facility. In short, for the first time in a few years they have breathing space to put capex plans in place and run the business for growth rather than managing for the balance sheet.

The new bonds settle on 17 May so the next month could be interesting.

To sell now would be to fall at the final hurdle. I would give it till end of June and see what happens but I think that with 70 dollar oil and a better balance sheet they will be under pressure from total, Guyana, their own shareholders to put a plan in place.

Let’s see.

The problem with m&a at the moment for us is that the entire wide biotech sector trades at really high multiples, apart from us.

Optically, buying something for 20x ebitda only for the market to then value it at 1x under ncyt ownership would be ugly if you started to lever up the balance sheet to make those acquisitions.

Yes some debt is ok, and in fact verifiable as it provides a tax shield in your pnl....BUT, I would certainly not want them to start making PE style debt funded acquisitions at high multiples. In my experience, levering up the balance sheet unless you plan to flip a biz quickly is a sure fire way to create problems down the road.

Have I missed any news? odd sp move and there is actually a decent chunk on the offer.

I was always bought up with my parents telling me if I don’t have anything sensible to say, then don’t say it at all.

Not to positive!? Are you for real?

In any risk asset or investment when the story changes and the price adjusts that severely, the market will overshoot as the tourists and weak hands are washed through.

Agree with you that those weak hands may nearly be done with. On to the next dream.

We need to get away from this idea of covid and covid testing being important to us. It’s not.

Testing for flu, for hiv, for hpv, for bacterial infection, for viral infection will be important for us. Covid opened a door. It will be around forever but we rerate when everyone realises the future of diagnostics has changed forever. I think institutional investors know this as evidenced by the US valuations. Aim retail fast money do not. Not do they care. They want fast money now now now

And Albion getting relegated too.

Just kidding.

I’m more convinced today than ever about the longer term prospects here. If we can realise them then this biz is a target for a buyer very soon.

What is the value of all the above when you consider your investment picks? At this share price it’s zero to the market.

I’m not ramping but just pointing out that this wash out is the transfer of risk from the fast money traders to longer term investors. Unfortunately ncyt shareholder roster had so many dream chasers that the price actio can be painful. But, it’s not hard to see the path. It won’t 10 bag in 2 months, we wont get to 54 a share as that nonsense. But I believe we have a hell of a platform to create a multi billion mkt cap company over the coming years as diagnostics becomes central to health services globally. The world can’t be a sight with its pants down again. The cost of putting in national diagnostics infrastructure is far far far less than the economic and financial cost of furlough, eat out to help out, nightingales, bailing out the economy etc. And that’s just the U.K.

The world has changed. The need and appreciation for broad diagnostics has changed. And every report I read says this wider diagnostics market is going to grow exponentially over the next 5 years. Patience is hard when you are sat on a loss. But don’t go to check the ncyt share price in 3 years time and be kicking yourself.

This is the reality of novacyt as we sit here today...

You see ncyt as a U.K. centric covid trade. The were quick out the blocks with their pcr covid test and made some great sales into the nhs and got a dhsc contract when the powers that be were scrambling for solutions. They had a great little pop last year and managed to make some cash in the process. In the U.K. the vaccination program has worked. Alongside our lockdowns, the U.K. is now at the the end of the road or close to it for mass pcr covid testing and future surveillance needs for covid are mainly LFT so high volume sales of pcr won’t happen, as it currently stands. This is the fast money, make a quick buck then onto the next one crowd. There is nothing wrong with this but that ‘trade’ has happened.

Then the other view...

You see ncyt as a U.K. based global diagnostics business that managed to find a name for itself during the pandemic and can use its experience of covid to build something bigger and more diverse with global scale long after covid. It’s a multi year strategy but the cashflows generated during the last year and the reputational capital (priceless) they now have with many governments, state owned entities and health services , NGOs (unicef, WHO, UN etc) can provide a spring board to grow this business significantly. Ncyt was never about covid. Covid just opened the door to a future of diagnostics that far expands beyond covid testing. Pcr in itself can be used to diagnose practically anything. HIV, HPV, flu etc etc. Ncyt have the technology, have the know how and no have the cash and clout to really roll out into the diagnostics area far far beyond covid. And on a truly global scale given their new sales contacts and reputation. This view is an investment. It’s the start of the journey for ncyt, not the end. Ncyt has one of the strongest balance sheets on AIM and no capital contracts to pursue whatever opportunities come along.

Which one are you?

If ncyt was a get rich quick trade you should prob sell and move into the next golden goose. Many are doing just this and Aim is full of dreams makers and just as many dream chasers.

However, if you have the patience and the ability to open your eyes and your mind to the opportunity you are being presented with you should beg, borrow, steal to get as much of this stock as you can down here. This is an INVESTMENT opportunity like none I have ever seen down here. If this was a US listed SPAC saying it had 100m, a team of specialist staff and a dream to be a diagnostics biz it would be valued more than it currently is. We have the capital, we have the scientists, we have the products, we have the know how, we have the reputation, we have the route to market, we have the sales channels, we have the manufacturing ability and capacity, we innovate, we adapt, we create products when we see opportunity’s d most importantly WE ARE ACTUALLY SELLING THESE PRODUCTS EVERY DAY ALL OVER THE WORLD.

You probably don’t want to know the answer to that. I’m sure the Chinese authorities manage to find some ‘volunteers’ to give covid and test on somewhere.

Added. My average is now a 6 handle. So more digestible.

I don’t agree the market is interested in the long term outlook. The market is proving no long term outlook. It is just trading on a horrific technical with no fundamental rationale. At this price it’sa liquidation story and even then the sp would be worth more.

If Gm can’t get the sp up he has an obligation to launch a strategic review and should put the biz up for sale.

People are throwing the towel in. I can’t believe you would sell here unless you had just had enough.

I owned a company called gw pharmaceuticals back in the day. Ncyt need to follow that path and dual list in US. I have been against it historically as it will add cost and take management time as it’s a different set of reporting requirements. In the US the sophistication of the investor base is so different even at the retail end. Aim is full of absolute dip ****s. There is a reason our direct peers trade where they do in the US versus what we have. Are they better companies? No.