Member Info for Soder

Anyone seen anything recent on this or know happened from this a month or so ago? Would still think we are well positioned with WHO and unicef so should surely be some uptake of our products. Esp as we gave them 1m freebie tests.

For new people on the board last week here is the info.

https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/act-accelerator-strategic-plan-budget-october-2021-to-september-2022

Meanwhile odx and a torched.

You gotta love Boris and his building of a U.K. diagnostics powerhouse.

I am not ruling it out at all. But I am saying I dont want one. Companies who generate so much cash and trade at sub 3x next years ebitda should not be paying dividends. They should be focussed on using that cash to get the share price up what trades at half price.

How is it a bargain. You are detached from reality. A company with neg ebitda and half year sales of 5.7m is not worth 56m. It’s just not.

Odx are finished. That was horrific half year report. They never really had a contract as it had no purchase orders attached.

Covid has passed them by and they are still neg ebitda and have 4m of cash and half year sales of a full 5.7m. That’s less than a month for ncyt.

Game. Over.

What nonsense re their buybacks being failures so we shouldnt do it!? Wake up.

Shell has a mkt cap of £128bn. They have communicated a 2022 buyback estimate of $6bn which is just over £4.4bn and thus 3.5% of their total mkt cap.

Hbr mkt cap is (after this rally) just shy of £4bn. We could easily spend $1bn over the next 12 months on buybacks. That’s just under £750m and nearly 19% of our market cap.

If you think paying a dividend will give you a better return than HBR buying back nearly 20% of their stock I can’t help you. If they did this buyback the stock would be 600p plus. If they pay you a divi you make 5%. Woopie ****ing doo.

You win the prize for the most pointless and least value added thread of the day. And on a day like this, that is no mean feat. Well done sir.

First for the news that matters? How about check my thread from 10.35am this morning. Did you hear they invented the wheel too?

No divi for me. I want them to announce they will be reinvesting cash into buying new PRODUCING assets and BUYBACKS. Happy for them to send zama into the weeds.

Some leaks in press that bids are due in December as the PE owners look for exit.

I still think this “sale” process is just part of a wider exit process and there is a decent chance we look to merge with them. We guess we could buy it but the public market and comparable transaction valuations are just not going to be attractive for the PE owners to sell at moment. Especially as they just keep ripping dividends from Neptune.

Would be a great deal to get together with them. Huge scale. Huge cashflows. Could create a truly massive independent.

Baysil what you are describing is simply beta. It applies to whole mkt and not idiosyncratic but you are making it that it’s why hbr is overvalued.

The rates nd inflation argument will clearly impact tech more value stocks. Tech is all about growth. And when you have growth you have a discount rate based on the risk free rate. When that increases, the discounted valuation of future earnings (and this share prices) decrease.

That is simply not the case for hbr. We are a value stack not growth. And as such for the correction you describe our beta to the market will be considerably less than 1. (Where 1 = mkt beta)

If you are worried about that you go long value and short a ton of out the money growth stocks against it.

Failing that. Sell everything and hold money in cash.

You are now comparing jam tomorrow tech companies that trade at 200x earnings and won’t make any cash for a thousand years and where those jam tomorrow future earnings are super sensitive to a discount rate (ie US interest rates) with a predominantly North Sea oil and gas biz trading at 3.5x ebitda and set to make 700-800m free cashflow even without tolmount and after a huge maintenance program this year.

Jog on.

That Justin Waite stuff is like some s h ite local radio station. He sounds like he is financially illiterate and more suited to selling nappies on the market.

I can’t get past the crap intro without crying on the inside.

It’s a guaranteed sale price for a set level of production.

This business is a piece of **** to value. They even give us the hedge schedule. Volumes and prices for next few years.

And you have the daily production. And you know it’s 50/50 oil and gas. And the markets for unhedged oil and gas are publicly available. You can take a view and n 13 months out. Be conservative. Half it if you want.

You can take a horse to water…..

I think the market really struggles with us. Ebitda margins this high are unheard of. This is pretty much a utility. But we get valued like a small cap frontier wildcatter.

It will come. The market can’t ignore cash for ever.

This is tosh. People can’t have it both ways.

The naysayers say the price is depressed and underperforming peers as we are too hedged so missing the upside. Now you say the price is too high as oil will sink. So are we hedged or not? And oil is only half of this business. Go open you last gas bill and tell me why I need to care about the spot price of wti ?!

The fact is. At current share price with the hedges we have this business will still throw off hundreds of millions in free cash next year. It will also be trading at an ev ebitda of around 3-4x EVEN if your previous oil price sank to 60.

You have provide high level waffle with no basis for why this is overvalued. Why? Cos there is no, and I do mean NO, financially literate valuation argument to present for this trading at 400p given the production, the hedges, the balance sheet, the free cashflow.

Tell me what your assumptions for full year production are next year and I will happily model this business for you to pull apart every argument you can give as to why this is overvalued. That is from a fundamental perspective.

We can do some back of the day packet….

10m revs 190 odd implies fy will be about 230m. Opex guidance 55-65 so take mid point at 60 gives ebitdax of 170m. I think this is light and will actually be closer to 180 and maybe above but let’s take a conservative 170.

What multiple is this worth? It’s not even really an oil and gas biz. It’s an asset heavy utility with predictable and contractual revenue streams in Nigeria. Say absolute worst case 5x ev ebitda.

So 5x170 = $850m ev. Less net debt of what at year end? 370? Let’s take that. So that gives equity value of $480m. FX rate of 1.35 to GBP gives equity value of £356m.

Number of shares outstanding is 996m. That gives an implied price per share of 36p.

That gives no credit for Niger. Assumes Chad does happen. And is static. Given they dropped 50m debt this year and have a new gas contract, on a look forward basis you could easily be talking towards 200m ebitda for next year.

If Chad doesn’t happen. Will be 30-35p imo.

If Chad does? Who knows. Hopefully they debt fund it.

I get it from Bloomberg so fully public.

Ruth was an employee. I don’t know if still the case. She prob had a lock up on any shares she held after leaving as part of a bonus plan. Maybe that expired and she took her 2-3 quid and bailed. She would have been issued these shares when ncyt traded at pennies. Made out like a bandit even though would have been worth 10-12m 12 months ago.

You go Ruthie

Just had a quick look at latest register.

Looks like Ruth Powell jumped ship. Sold her entire 955k shares during October and mid November it seems. What is her role or link now with ncyt?

Schroders also now back to zero holding. Sold 99k shares.

JO hambro went back to 950k shares. Sold 100k pre last weeks move but given size it’s likely just for fund flows. Reported 15 nov.

Ninety one. As per above. Sold 51k shares. Reported 15 nov.

Not to be picky but there are an embarrassing number of typos on that page.